[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by JimKing

The down trend has barely started and will go on and on for years and years.

I agree. If someone who bought at the end of the housing boom is thinking about selling their home in the next few years, they should probably put it on the market ASAP before the comps bring it down.

Or, find a suitable rentor and rent it until the prices come back up again.

[mattvj5]

Good advice...we bought in Summer of '06 and may move next Summer of '08 and will probaly have to rent or lease it out if this keeps up.

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by JimKing

This was NOT a normal housing 'cycle'. This was artificially created by a lot of players.

1. Historically low interest rates by Greenspan
2. Creative financing never seen before in this volume.
3. Historic numbers of no doc and liar loans.
4. Appraisers who gave whatever numbers prople wanted.
5. Record numbers of amateur flippers.
6. Record number of building projects.

There were no fundamentals to support any of his. It was all created by people trying to run up prices. Now we are left with record foreclosures, record vacancies, record property taxes, and record insurance costs.

There is no 'riding it out'. The down trend has barely started and will go on and on for years and years.



So people telling others to ride it out as if the market will start going up again in 6 months...or 1 year...or 3 years are selling nothing but false hope. There may be a few small dead cat bounces, but overall things are headed down for a long time.

This has been said many many times in many many markets. As a kid growing up in the Bronx, I remeber my Dads' friends coming over to go duck shooting from the back yard. That's right Duck shooting in the Bronx. When he bought his house many of his friends said he was crazy to buy in such a wilderness. Square blocks of undeveloped property could be bought for 30K. That was 40years ago. He bought that house for 20K, in the late 80's housing tanked and he was concerned that the house had fallen to 250K then came the housing bust of the 90"s and my Dad sweated that his house had fallen to 450K today the house is 750K.

The same thing happened in Westchester County "who wants to live up there!" Then came Rockland county considered by many to be "upstate" it is 30 miles from mid town Manhattan. In the mid 70's I priced a 3-2 townhouse in New City, NY. It could be had for 35K today it is over 500K. I bought a house in Orange County NY, 70 miles from Manhattan in 1981 for 41K Today that house is about 350K. There were no major outside factors to induce this appreciation other than population. Even in Dutchess county where IBM had MASSIVE layoffs. Housing dropped 25% overnight and everyone thought it was the end of Dutchess county except a few. They made a fortune in less than 5 years. I was one of those who said it was over. What a mistake but we learn from our mistakes, I did.

The point of all of this is that over the long haul RE is a winner. In all the examples given above wages did not increase at the same rate and many people complained about affordable housing, same story over and over for the last few decades Mortgages in the early 80's were averaging 15%, there was black tuesday when the stock market tanked, don't ya wish you bought in then! The dot com bust, 9-11, everyone knew that NYC property would tank because of fear of terrorists those and a whole bunch more alleged armageddon scenarios.
The current downturn is not unique to Fl it has occurred many times over in a thousand different markets throughout the country for a thousand different reasons. I cannot guarantee that the bottom is here, I don't know, but I do know that the market will tell me when it is over and IMHO you have turned the corner in this particular market area. How long it will stay flat is anyones' guess but I have noticed that the amount of spec homes has dropped and that builders are no longer "giving away the ranch" YES, there are still incentives but not like what you saw 8mos ago. Those days are over. Again as regards this particular market area south Sarasota county.

[kelly3120]

you know what bothers me in all of this ...and I haven't read all of these post because they are silly after a while ....people waiting around. I hate waiting around ...waiting for the market to change ...waiting for anything!!!!
I wanted to upgrade and we did! ...WE have a great home to sell and it will sell and I have no problem hanging a little until it sells(EVEN THO I HATE WAITING!!!) ....we can carry to two mortages for a while.
We are not panicking that it won't sell ...in fact we are excited, the market is picking up ..at least around us.
I'm not gonna sell my house for a dollar or two tho .....like all you humans would like me too. =)

I also think you people read to many stats and listen to the news and all to much. Watch the homes in your area and see what's going on ...that's where the real news is ...4 homes in our neighborhood have sold this month ...that's purty good! ...our downfall is we are a 2/1 ...those take a little while to sell. We have a possible offer and are just waiting to get it in writting ...so I know "OFFERS ARE MEANINGLESS" BUT it's movement, it's traffic, it's economical ...so the markets not gonna fall ......RELAXXXXXX humans and buy the house you want.

....now, with all that said we didn't buy our first home during the time when people were paying more then a house was worth ....now that's just silly!!! And they will take great losses, but that's what you get for jumping on the bed =)

[kelly3120]

my point is this ...not ever home seller will sell you their home for a low price JUST because everyone else is doing it. Some of us (the smarty ones) put in time, effort and wise choices to make our homes what they are.
Don't group all sellers in the "they paid to much and now need to get their moneys worth" ...many of us have owned home for 5 years or more and it's just time to move on for one reason or the other.

I think by saying "wait them out wait until the prices are low" gives the idea that people will allow themselves to be taken.
We are not as desperate as you might think....

[seeriously]

All good points, Kelly. The market is picking up near me as well. I agree with you that the people who bought high were foolish but those who aren't taking advantage of the low prices of today are equally foolish. When they all come out of the woodwork at the same time to jump on the buying band wagon, they will become their own worse enemy as they compete with eachother for homes.

And just as the name of this thread suggests, "Housing Bubble Popped but why aren't the prices reflecting it?"... POPPED as in past tense! We are now in a healing process and unfortunately for them, they won't know that they missed the bus until it's too late. Maybe they're waiting for a loud popping noise to signify a bursting bubble.

[kelly3120]

Thanks verobeach!

...it's like they are waiting for things to get lower

When they do come out of the woodwork, home prices will rise because they are fighting over our homes HA!...what a funny little cycle.

I so agree with you ...the market is rising and they are talking so much they are missing it! Then they will be settling for crappy homes that are overpriced. again, what a silly little cycle.

have a good week guys!

and off note I just have to say ....my garden is beautiful today! All my flowers are happy and my grass is green. It's stunning ...wish it wasn't so stunningly HOT!

[gypsychic]

Kelly, I know elsewhere in this forum (maybe this thread I agreed with you, and I still do. As has been mentioned many times, real estate is local and there are actually areas of the country and even Florida where things are APPRECIATING quite a bit and sales being made.

I am in Pasco County where commercial construction is going gangbusters, and while the residential market has been a bit slower it is moving. We plan to put our property on the market in a few months, and I will then buy in another market, which is also slightly slower but appreciating ever so slightly. I am predicting that in the areas I will be selling and then buying there will be quite a bit more activity in the fall, when it is known how much lower the RE taxes will be, and also what the insurance rates bring. I think anyone who wants to buy a home now or in the near future and can AFFORD to buy should go ahead because no one has a crystal ball and a home should be looked upon as much more than just an investment.

Good luck Kelly, I know how hard it is to wait, I feel the same way!

[JimKing]

Wow, there must be lots of realtors on this forum posing as home buyers/sellers.

Florida is NOT picking up, just the opposite. People, go read blogs like the Housing Bubble blog for yourself. Inventories are growing every single month. Foreclosures are growing every month. School districts are losing younger students for the first time in history as the young couples start leaving.

You have always been able to buy a home for 110-150 times monthly rent for a comparable home. Now, houses are priced at 200-400 times monthly rent. Housing prices in almost all of Florida have to fall by 40-70% to get back to where they should be.

Folks, don't fall for their tricks. When the median income is historically out of whack by a factor of 2-3 with home prices, they will come down. Wait, wait, wait.

And ignore the fake posters on this board who must work in real estate one way or another.

[JimKing]

Just some excerpts of the truth:

The Orlando Sentinel reports from Florida. “(For) the company known for its ‘We Buy Ugly Houses’ signs, Florida has been one of Home-Vestors’ best markets. And there’s no shortage of houses for sale, a virtual smorgasbord. But these days, many of the homes for sale in markets such as Central Florida can’t be bought, rehabilitated and sold for a profit.”

“‘I don’t know how some [owners] are able to pay the taxes and insurance,’ said CEO John Hayes.”

“Ron Smith, an independent housing-rehab specialist in Apopka, said he gave up his sideline business a few months ago after 20 years of working the Orlando area. ‘It just got a lot tougher. I went to work full time with a roofing company,’ said Smith, who used to buy and fix up homes to sell, or to rent until he could find a buyer, as many as four or five times a year.”

“Smith said his best years were the late 1990s through 2004, when ‘it just went crazy.’ So many buyers were bidding up prices, it got harder to compete, he said. Then, earlier this year, sales went flat as thousands of homes flooded the market at inflated prices.”

“‘I didn’t believe the market here would go 180 degrees, but it did,’ Smith said.”

The Herald Tribune. “Do not blame developers for bringing hundreds of thousands of square feet of office space to market at the worst possible moment. Three years ago, every indicator was persuading them that Sarasota County’s southernmost city was in desperate need.”

“But it was the collapse of North Port’s home building industry that brought the office market to a standstill. Suddenly, developers found it impossible to fill their new buildings, and lease rates plummeted.”

“Figures presented by the the Economic Development Corp. of Sarasota County point to an office vacancy rate in North Port of about 50 percent, amounting to about 180,000 square feet of space. Based on the city’s historic annual absorption rate of roughly 22,400 square feet, that space will take eight years to fill.”

“‘It’s not a pretty picture, especially given current market conditions,’ said George Hugh, a Venice real estate agent and foreclosure specialist. ‘Eight years is a long time for developers to keep feeding money to their banks.’”

“Huhn added that the situation in North Port proves that home builders were not the only speculators during the boom.”

“‘You’ve got to wonder whether developers and bankers, in their rush to develop in 2004 and 2005, were doing proper due diligence,’ Huhn said.”

“Benderson Development Group’s office park on Toledo Blade is a case in point: The company’s six office buildings, totaling 40,000 square feet of space, stand empty. ‘I’m sure they saw rooftops being built and they didn’t count on them being sold to speculators,’ Huhn said. ‘You’ve basically got a situation down there in which half the homes are empty.’”