05-24-2007, 09:21 AM
Location: Riverview
372 posts, read
860,156 times
Reputation: 80
I recently spoke with a realtor who tried to justify why houses were still selling higher than Just Market Value (the price that a house should sell in a competitive market). She told me I should compare the selling prices of houses in the areas I'm looking that have sold within the past 6 months to get an idea of what to expect to pay for a house in that neighborhood.
I tried comparing a few local areas of interest in the Riverview/Brandon area and there are only a few that are starting to compare at, or slightly below, Just Market Value, which is too high to begin with, in my opinion.
Until the seller’s “greatly inflated perception of what their home is worth” becomes more realistic, the housing slump will continue for a long time and time is on the buyer’s side.
A neighbor bought his house for $270k at the end of the housing boom in August of 2005. His house has a Just Market Value of $217k. He tried to sell it at the beginning of the year for $288k, but has since lowered the price to $259k, $42,000 over Just Market Value. There are a lot of sellers in his position that overpaid for a house and can’t sell it without taking a substantial loss. In this market, the longer you wait to reduce your selling price, the less your house will be worth.
I recently read an article that stated, "The under-pricing game is now over. You are free to bid far lower than the asking price. You might be pleasantly surprised to find out how desperate the sellers are."
We were told by our realtor that we should not underbid because it may insult the seller. I'm insulted by the sellers that are still trying to get June 2005 prices on a house when it's supposedly a buyer's market.
The rules have changed. One cannot compare prices in an area within the last 6 months, because the most recent month is the most telling statement of what a house is worth in that particular area. And each month, that number continues to drop.
There's no sign in the near future that this will end anytime soon. Economist Gary Shilling forecasts a drop of 40 to 50 percent in home prices in overpriced areas such as CA and FL. While that may not be good news for the realty business, it's wonderful news for us. This downward spiral is predicted to last at least 5 to 10 years, similar to previous housing slumps.
My wife and I are in no hurry to buy an over-priced house, especially when prices are continuing to fall while the market is over-flooded with unsold houses. We're currently pre-approved for a loan, but there will be plenty of opportunity to buy a house at a fair price for many years to come.
One realtor hit the nail on the head when he said, "Based on the number of homes on the market and the general lack of available home buyers, you would think it is a real Buyers Market. But, it's not. We had such a run up in the market through 2005 with both purchases and refinances that lots of people owe more on their home than their home is worth - and lot's of these people are selling - and they don't have much room to negotiate - so they leave the price high on their home. Other sellers who don't owe so much on their home, and don't have to sell, don't want to drop their price too far below their competition (the people who can't drop their price)."
Your thoughts?
05-24-2007, 09:49 AM
Location: WPB
900 posts, read
3,499,444 times
Reputation: 331
Patience is the key right now, pretty soon panic is going to set in and you are going to see a mass flood of short sale listings.
We to are planning on making a purchase, my thoughts are the Fall 2008 we will see our 50% corrections.
I don't agree to a slow decline, Americans are far to impatient for that to happen. People will not be able to sell or stay so they will simply mail back the keys and walk away. After that banks will start trying to unload their losses as quickly as possible.
My prediction is that prices will drop 50% in Florida by next years end and continue to slowly decline or stay flat for many years to come.
I wouldn't bother to try to get a realtor's opinion in this market as their livelihoods are involved so you will not get an honest answer anyways.
If you are not, you should be reading the thehousingbubbleblog.com this site will give you all of the up to date information on what is really happening with the market. They feature Florida usually every day.
SKB
05-24-2007, 10:09 AM
1,418 posts, read
10,193,480 times
Reputation: 948
There's a good reason for this. Most houses are lived in. They provide far greater utility than just a place to invest money. Most people don't want or need to move around all that much. So, people have a natural tendancy to sit and sit and sit on their land until they finally get the price they want. For most people, until that happens, there's no pressing reason to sell or move.
05-24-2007, 10:20 AM
Location: Port St. Lucie and Okeechobee, FL
1,307 posts, read
5,505,819 times
Reputation: 1116
Quote:
Originally Posted by
nychiefsfan
...Just Market Value (the price that a house should sell in a competitive market).
Where are you obtaining your numbers for Just Market Value? If they are from the county property appraiser's numbers, you should take them with a grain of salt. There are often vast differences between what the property appraiser says is Just Market Value and the actual market value of the property. For one thing, the property appraiser does not do a full appraisal on each property, just a curbside appraisal at best. They also leave out significant factors such as commissions and selling costs There are also political or personal variances in the values that any given property appraiser's office sets.
Market value is that value that is determined by a willing seller and a willing buyer. The most pure form of market value is determined by auction, assuming there is a valid cross-section of buyers at the auction.
The property appraiser's value should almost never be considered in any serious discussion of real market values.
05-24-2007, 10:42 AM
Location: So. Dak.
13,495 posts, read
37,451,343 times
Reputation: 15205
I'm insulted by the sellers that are still trying to get June 2005 prices on a house when it's supposedly a buyer's market. //Unquote
I like that.
I understand exactly what you're saying. It seems that some people just don't understand that their homes are no longer worth what they were just a few months ago. IMHO, you have the right to make whatever offer you want to make. If it's not accepted, so be it.
SKB, hopefully you're right. Not sure if it'll drop that much, but it'll definitely go lower then it is right now.
Actually just from reading posts there seem to be several people who want to sell NOW and don't plan on waiting around. Many people have gotten jobs elsewhere and need to relocate. Many have gotten tired of Fla. and have moved out of state and cannot continue to support two houses. It is a buyer's market right now and I don't know why that is so much harder to accept then when it was a seller's market.
05-24-2007, 10:46 AM
Location: kalifornia
26 posts, read
119,632 times
Reputation: 32
Housing
On the news this morning it reported that the "new" housing market was up more than it has been in 14 years. there is no housing bubble, just a lot of nervous buyers. The only people that will lose their home are the ones that could not afford it to begin with.
05-24-2007, 11:27 AM
1,257 posts, read
4,576,691 times
Reputation: 1034
Re: Economist Gary Shilling forecasts a drop of 40 to 50 percent in home prices in overpriced areas such as CA and FL.
Lennar development "Cielo" in Palm Beach Garden was selling above ~$550K in July, 2005. Now Lennar is selling them at ~$320K. The sales person chased us down the street to try to make us put one dollar down to buy one of those. We just don't like the development. I guess in some extreme cases, you will see 40-50% price drop. Lennar now starts to offer to pay realtor's comission for the buyers who'll have to sell their houses first (at this point, marketed as an exclusive to our company employees). We sold our house in CA last year (September, 2006). The same house was sold recently again ($40K more after addition of a granite kitchen countertop). So...
05-24-2007, 11:29 AM
Location: Naples
672 posts, read
906,395 times
Reputation: 63
As a buyer, it seems to me that it is the sellers who are nervous. A house we looked at in October is now down $150,000. Another, which we no way could afford 6 months ago, is now down almost $200,000. It is now affordable.
As I said to my husband then, sit tight. These homes are not worth what they are asking and they are going to come DOWN. I am still not quite ready to commit. Nervous? Nope. Having bought and sold 3 homes in 30 years, we have learned a thing or two about real estate. Worst thing you can do is RUSH into it.
05-24-2007, 12:03 PM
6,565 posts, read
14,298,942 times
Reputation: 3229
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Prichard
There's a good reason for this. Most houses are lived in. They provide far greater utility than just a place to invest money. Most people don't want or need to move around all that much. So, people have a natural tendancy to sit and sit and sit on their land until they finally get the price they want. For most people, until that happens, there's no pressing reason to sell or move.
This would be true if most people who caused this bubble in the first place were buying property "for the utility and not an investment" but that simply isn't the case.
It's simple. Real Estate prices got out of hand and outpaced the market and salaries didn't follow.
New homes are selling for less than existing homes with many more incentives so I don't see how a seller of an existing home can sit on his house if he really needs to sell, and let's face it. MOST people that are trying to sell thier house need to get out of it for one reason or another. I personally don't think prices will drop 50%, but I don't think 25% is out of the question at all...
05-24-2007, 12:18 PM
Location: WPB
900 posts, read
3,499,444 times
Reputation: 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by
rpow53
On the news this morning it reported that the "new" housing market was up more than it has been in 14 years. there is no housing bubble, just a lot of nervous buyers. The only people that will lose their home are the ones that could not afford it to begin with.
You forgot to mention the other part of that news brief.
" ignited by the biggest decline in median prices since 1970. ”
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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House/condo owner moved in on average (years ago)
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People in Group quarters - State prisons (%)
People in Group quarters - Other types of correctional institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Nursing homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards, hospices, and schools for the handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards and hospices for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospices or homes for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Military hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Other hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals or wards for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Mental (Psychiatric) hospitals or wards (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the blind (%)
People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)