Fort Myers experiences largest home price gain (Miami, Cape Coral: days on market, sale)

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by JeffTumbarello

Here is 2011 https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B03...UzYTc5NTQ0YmQx

Here is 2010 https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B03...MyNzVkNzMyMzM4

this data was exported from the mls, culled for dups and then trended with excel

I can't open 2nd either but what a great breakdown of town to town in comparison. pretty clear that lehigh is dragging prices down. Hopefully Jeff will make this a monthly contribution.

[nhkev]

Originally Posted by equalrightsforeveryone

You Sound like a broken record.

but I like the song it's playing ... Move equal Move.

[hiknapster]

Kev, on another thread the link works...

//www.city-data.com/forum/22128532-post28.html

I see you found it but I'm going to leave this up for anyone else.

//www.city-data.com/forum/22128532-post28.html

Here's the link that should be used.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&p...yMzM4&hl=en_US

[JeffTumbarello]

What you are seeing is the investors leave the market. I think they are being replaced by boomers. The money in motion is not going down. That is one of the keys to watch. The ratios of price increaseyear over year looke a lot like late 2003 from a statistical perspective. What I donot get is the world love affair with rising prices. Until recently real estate was never a large part of the GDP. It was a place to live and put your business. Rising prices kills investment and disposable income. Just wait till leverage returns to the market.......

[rikoshaprl]

Originally Posted by JeffTumbarello

What you are seeing is the investors leave the market. I think they are being replaced by boomers. The money in motion is not going down. That is one of the keys to watch. The ratios of price increaseyear over year looke a lot like late 2003 from a statistical perspective. What I donot get is the world love affair with rising prices. Until recently real estate was never a large part of the GDP. It was a place to live and put your business. Rising prices kills investment and disposable income. Just wait till leverage returns to the market.......

I don't care if prices don't go up. It only will increase my property taxes. The problem is when prices go down. People feel poorer, stop spending and that hurts the economy. Even investors should be happy with stable home prices. They should have some cash flow and are paying down their mortgages even without appreciation.

[justNancy]

I haven't read the other recent posts yet, so this is only in response to the topic, not any particular comment. I apologize if the links below have already been posted.

Anyway, I don't know why this subject has been a continuous argument on this forum. If someone is seriously looking for a home and finds the right property, it's not difficult to run some comps, checkout the MLS to see what the average price/sf is in the area, and read about the latest sales trends in the surrounding area. Like politics, everything else is just an opinion.

For example, this article is from Nov 2011, only one month ago.

[url=http://247wallst.com/2011/11/16/the-cities-where-people-finally-want-to-buy-homes/3/]The Cities Where People Finally Want to Buy Homes - 24/7 Wall St.[/url]

"There is arguably no single housing market with a worse outlook than southwest Florida, and Cape Coral-Fort Myers is the hardest-hit area. Housing prices here have already dropped 59.3% from their peak, and Fiserv projects a further decline of 12.2% by the second quarter of next year. According to Corelogic, 47% of the homes in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area are worth less than their mortgages. Foreclosures have increased 35% in the last quarter. However, the long-term outlook may be better than these figures suggest. Real estate agents are giving “foreclosure tours” to show homes that are now worth 40% or less of what they were just five years ago, and the number of people looking for homes in the area is nearly double the number looking to leave."

The same data was used by Kiplinger in November.

[url=http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2011/01/when-home-prices-will-head-up.html]Housing Outlook 2011: When Home Prices Will Head Up[/url]

This following article is from Dec 2011. In fact, it was just published today, and predicts that home prices in Florida will continue to fall.

[url=http://www.housingpredictor.com/2012/florida.html]Florida, Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa, Naples, Orlando, Fort Myers, Fort Lauderdale[/url]

"The foreclosure crisis has riddled the economy in major sections of Florida, including Fort Myers, which has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation. Troubled homeowners, many of whom have lost their jobs and who have been unable to reach agreements with their banks to modify mortgages are leaving their homes abandoned in Fort Myers and neighboring Cape Coral, departing to find work elsewhere. Fort Myers is forecast to lose another 6.8% in home prices in 2012."

Yet just 4 months ago in August, Bankrate called Cape Coral-Fort Myers "one of the bright spots" with a 17.9% rise in home values.

[url=http://www.bankrate.com/finance/mortgages/home-values-fall-with-a-few-bright-spots.aspx]Home values fall, with a few bright spots | Bankrate.com[/url]

In summary, if I were planning to buy a home in Cape Coral, I wouldn't let any of these opinions affect my judgment if I thought it was the right home and location for me and the price was reasonable. Just do your homework.

[hiknapster]

Originally Posted by rikoshaprl

I don't care if prices don't go up. It only will increase my property taxes. The problem is when prices go down. People feel poorer, stop spending and that hurts the economy. Even investors should be happy with stable home prices. They should have some cash flow and are paying down their mortgages even without appreciation.

Dead. On.

Originally Posted by JeffTumbarello

What you are seeing is the investors leave the market. I think they are being replaced by boomers. The money in motion is not going down. That is one of the keys to watch. The ratios of price increaseyear over year looke a lot like late 2003 from a statistical perspective. What I donot get is the world love affair with rising prices. Until recently real estate was never a large part of the GDP. It was a place to live and put your business. Rising prices kills investment and disposable income. Just wait till leverage returns to the market.......

I lived through the boom in that area and it wasn't pretty. I've beaten a dead horse for years on here about this. I often get the feeling from some people that they believe in their heart of hearts that the price boom will happen again. I think it was a one-off and further, Lee County is far better off without it. For decades the area did fine, in fact flourished, without the crazy prices. There was a very, very small appreciation and it was perfect, a nice, quiet area to live or retire. When prices went up it priced out a lot of retirees, then the working class, the service people, the cops, teachers, public servants. When we moved away in 2005 the business section of The News Press did a story on my family's being priced out of the market and being forced to move. The place just wasn't liveable, anymore and my then-husband had lived in the area with his very large family for 25 years.

[st468]

Originally Posted by rikoshaprl

I don't care if prices don't go up. It only will increase my property taxes. The problem is when prices go down. People feel poorer, stop spending and that hurts the economy.

I agree fully. I'd also much rather our (soon to be) house down there stays at its current assessed value than go back up to a half million dollars+ in value. We are not looking to flip for a profit...

It is a fact prices are going up, at least right now. It is from the top (most desirable, but not necessarily the price point) down. Good gulf access, then distant gulf access, then newer freshwater access, then 33914 zip/newer off-water, then on down the line. Investors are still snapping up the good deals and holding them while sprucing them up for a flip for profit. Sad thing is that they are holding these properties back from regular buyers who will actually use and occupy the properties now and be there eating in restaurants, shopping, and otherwise feeding the economy. Meanwhile that further shrinks inventory driving the prices up for everyone else in the short term. I think there will be a spike and then a correction/leveling off next spring.

All one needs to do is try to shop (there- in person) for a good gulf access or other decent property. It's a friggin feeding frenzy. I'm sure the realtors here can attest to that...

[rikoshaprl]

Originally Posted by st468

I agree fully. I'd also much rather our (soon to be) house down there stays at its current assessed value than go back up to a half million dollars+ in value. We are not looking to flip for a profit...

It is a fact prices are going up, at least right now. It is from the top (most desirable, but not necessarily the price point) down. Good gulf access, then distant gulf access, then newer freshwater access, then 33914 zip/newer off-water, then on down the line. Investors are still snapping up the good deals and holding them while sprucing them up for a flip for profit. Sad thing is that they are holding these properties back from regular buyers who will actually use and occupy the properties now and be there eating in restaurants, shopping, and otherwise feeding the economy. Meanwhile that further shrinks inventory driving the prices up for everyone else in the short term. I think there will be a spike and then a correction/leveling off next spring.

All one needs to do is try to shop (there- in person) for a good gulf access or other decent property. It's a friggin feeding frenzy. I'm sure the realtors here can attest to that...

I am not necessarily happy to hear about frenzied buying by investors. For one thing investors are most likely getting mortgages, which means they could get foreclosed on some day creating another housing crisis. Also, owners often make better neighbors than tenants.

[hiknapster]

Investors and the flipping craze started this entire mess. The average joe thinking they could buy a house that they could turn around and sell added to the situation. And of course the banks taking all of those shaky loans and selling them as derivatives.