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The simple answer is no. Amazon operates on their own terms and schedule. My opinion is not representative of any inside company information, just to be candid. However, I do understand the company and have some connections that may or may not be valid for accurate information.
As of this date, I stand by my opinion that HQ2 will not be what was promised. Another HQ is still possible, but I believe it will be down-sized, atleast initially. Hence, the delay.
I still stand behind my original candidates, Texas (Austin or Dallas), DC (Maryland or Virginia). I have been fairly certain it will come down to these two areas, but what has changed is a down-sizing from what was originally set forth.
Again, please understand I am not an insider, just an informed participant in the process. This will indeed be quite interesting as it plays out.
I work at a real estate investment company, lots of chatter about this. Our people have gone along with the Amazon parties and the city officials when they visit areas in Chicago the times they've been here. Whispers from Amazon are they looking for a downsized second headquarters, probably in DC, but that they are also putting out a much smaller satellite office as well. Having one huge headquarters would be logically very hard and to try and herd all that talent together starts to have very diminished returns on getting quality people.
What Chicago is really pushing for is that satellite office, the 5,000 to 8,000 workers. I think that would be great. A massive shot in the arm of well paid jobs, but not the chaos and insanity of trying to set up some tens of thousands of employee campus from scratch with all the infrastructure, getting quality people, housing, traffic, etc.
I work at a real estate investment company, lots of chatter about this. Our people have gone along with the Amazon parties and the city officials when they visit areas in Chicago the times they've been here. Whispers from Amazon are they looking for a downsized second headquarters, probably in DC, but that they are also putting out a much smaller satellite office as well. Having one huge headquarters would be logically very hard and to try and herd all that talent together starts to have very diminished returns on getting quality people.
What Chicago is really pushing for is that satellite office, the 5,000 to 8,000 workers. I think that would be great. A massive shot in the arm of well paid jobs, but not the chaos and insanity of trying to set up some tens of thousands of employee campus from scratch with all the infrastructure, getting quality people, housing, traffic, etc.
Hmm, interesting perspective. You might be right. I don't think the more suburban contenders would have that much problem setting up a big campus like that from scratch, but I can see the challenges of doing that in a more urban area. The Reston campus, for example, is already in place. Quality people, housing, etc. are all here. The demands on traffic might be a problem, although Loudoun has been widening roads and building interchanges for about a decade in anticipation of growth, so it might not be so bad.
I can still provide some good guesses here, despite some who like to dispute it. So be it.
IMO, the HQ2 is going to be reduced from what was envisioned.
We should see an announcement before year end, but don't expect anything major for any contending city. I don't see how Amazon will invest the jobs promised in any of the contending cities. I do believe that there will be a secondary HQ'rs, and that won't be small potatoes. But the hype is certainly gone beyond what is reality. If I am wrong, then feel free to correct me here. But this is where this is heading, and I am about 80-20 certain of it, IMO.
I can still provide some good guesses here, despite some who like to dispute it. So be it.
IMO, the HQ2 is going to be reduced from what was envisioned.
We should see an announcement before year end, but don't expect anything major for any contending city. I don't see how Amazon will invest the jobs promised in any of the contending cities. I do believe that there will be a secondary HQ'rs, and that won't be small potatoes. But the hype is certainly gone beyond what is reality. If I am wrong, then feel free to correct me here. But this is where this is heading, and I am about 80-20 certain of it, IMO.
With all due respect to you, I have read your posts going back forever on this subject, and you have stated in the past that you had insider information on where this is going. Your 80-20 has no credibility with me at least.
The smaller HQ2 with a satellite office would make more sense to me, and seems to be a great idea for a large company like Amazon.
I had to look up who Resonance is, never heard of it. A Canadian consulting firm? Specializing in Canadian cities? That has Toronto on top? How refreshing! I think we just need a dartboard for this as to guess where Amazon is going to put this thing.
As I caveat, I have absolutely, positively no knowledge of Amazon itself. That said, it wouldn't be too surprised to see Amazon change it's mind and instead of creating one massive 2nd headquarters, instead create major regional ones. Having 2 national headquarters is pretty unprecedented even with the largest corporations. Across all corporations there is one head office and then national ones and regional ones but never 2 full headquarters, it really is unheard of.
In such a situation I could see Chicago for the Great Lakes/Midwest, Atlanta for the South, Toronto for Canada, and who knows for the Atlantic Seaboard.
I don't consider it great insight to "predict" that HQ2 will ultimately be smaller than initially stated.
A lot of assumed immediately that Amazon stated numbers that would never happen.
I agree. I don't even know what it means for it to be "smaller than initially stated" since Amazon's press release said they expect to "grow this second headquarters to include as many as 50,000 high-paying jobs"
To me that sounds like it could perhaps, eventually reach a number as high as 50k, but they never proposed any actual figure. Anyone who thinks that means they are promising or even targeting 50k is crazy.
As I caveat, I have absolutely, positively no knowledge of Amazon itself. That said, it wouldn't be too surprised to see Amazon change it's mind and instead of creating one massive 2nd headquarters, instead create major regional ones. Having 2 national headquarters is pretty unprecedented even with the largest corporations. Across all corporations there is one head office and then national ones and regional ones but never 2 full headquarters, it really is unheard of.
In such a situation I could see Chicago for the Great Lakes/Midwest, Atlanta for the South, Toronto for Canada, and who knows for the Atlantic Seaboard.
DC area most likely with Philly being a strong 2nd.
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