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Polk County workers commuting to either Lakeland MSA (intra-county), Orlando MSA, or Tampa MSA:
1st # is Lakeland, #2 is Orlando, #3 is Tampa
2002: 59.7% - 14.9% - 15.4%
2005: 58.6% - 13.0% - 15.5%
2010: 48.0% - 19.6% - 13.7%
2015: 51.3% - 18.7% - 15.4%
2020: 46.6% - 23.2% - 15.3%
Massive increase in commuting to Orlando in the past 15 years. Polk County moving to a 'Tampa CSA' is not happening.
Looking at the commuting patterns of Central Florida, it's not a stretch to combine the I-4 corridor into a single CSA. What that threshold looks like remains to be seen but based on the uncontrolled sprawling coupled with the influx of never-ending transplants, this could happen within the next 20 years.
Yeah Polk to Tampa always seemed weird. Definitely should be Orlando
Not as weird as you think. Historically, the commuting patterns favored Tampa. A recent shift due to the population explosion in East Polk narrowly changed those patterns in favor of Orlando.
100% agreed but it makes sense given the way MSAs are defined. I lived in SF proper and worked near SJ, but that was unusual, most of my colleagues seemed to be closer to the office with a few in the southern East Bay (Fremont etc.)
What I don't get is why they're separate UAs. Aren't those defined by having a continuous stretch of census tracts over some density level? SF to SJ city limits are 100% developed with zero gaps.
There is pretty good number of people that work at big tech companies in the South Bay and live in SF proper. The private company shuttles help enable that. The separation of the SF and SJ metro areas has always been very strange to me. Especially given how much economic activity there is directly in the middle of SF and SJ.
So if Snohomish is a core employment county, Kitsap is on the verge of being added (24.8%), otherwise it's in the middle of the CSA range.
Kittitas is higher than I would've thought, particularly to Pierce. I can see people commuting up I-90 to the ski resorts, state parks, etc. on the King side of the Cascades, but who is living in Kittitas and driving to Mt. Rainier or Tacoma?? Google Maps says Ellensburg to just inside the Pierce County border is 1 hr 55 min.
In all seriousness, could Racine and Kenosha Counties be consolidated with the Milwaukee MSA? Both counties seem to exist firmly within the Milwaukee orbit/labor market/media market. I am not sure if the commuting patterns are strong enough though. Would add nearly 400,000 population to the Milwaukee MSA, and take it over the 2 million mark, which to me seems more in-line with its overall stature/tier/influence.
The commuting patterns show that Kenosha is likely to leave the Chicago MSA, but stay in the CSA.
I'm not seeing any possible changes to the MSA/CSA makeup of Milwaukee.
Just tried very briefly to figure out how OnTheMap works. Think I’ll need a little more time.
Could you help me out and pull the same data for commuters in Worcester County: intra-county vs Middlesex?
The data from pre-2010 seems really off (it says almost 40% of Worcester County commuted to Providence County), so I won't include that:
Of Worcester County workers,
2011:
53.9% stayed in Worcester County for work
21.4% commuted to Middlesex
5.2% commuted to Norfolk
5.1% commuted to Suffolk
2.3% commuted to Hampden
2015:
54.0% stayed in Worcester County for work
21.5% commuted to Middlesex
5.0% commuted to Norfolk
5.0% commuted to Suffolk
2.2% commuted to Hampden
2020:
52.5% stayed in Worcester County for work
22.0% commuted to Middlesex
6.0% commuted to Suffolk (shift)
5.1% commuted to Norfolk (shift)
2.3% commuted to Hampden
A very small increase in commuting to core Boston. You can't just add up the core counties though (which a lot of people seem to be doing) and > 25% = MSA. The formula isn't that easy and this isn't even the same dataset. All you can glean is that a large enough increase in commuting from OnTheMap is a good sign.
From what I'm seeing, Boston MSA is no change (4,900,550). Boston CSA loses Northeastern Connecticut planning region (8,413,327 > 8,317,131).
So if Snohomish is a core employment county, Kitsap is on the verge of being added (24.8%), otherwise it's in the middle of the CSA range.
Kittitas is higher than I would've thought, particularly to Pierce. I can see people commuting up I-90 to the ski resorts, state parks, etc. on the King side of the Cascades, but who is living in Kittitas and driving to Mt. Rainier or Tacoma?? Google Maps says Ellensburg to just inside the Pierce County border is 1 hr 55 min.
Are you doing "Destination Type > Counties"?
Yes I’m selecting;
Home/Work Area: Home
Analysis Type: Destination (Destination Type: Counties)
Job Type: Private Primary Jobs
*I selected All jibes initially
I think I figured out the discrepancy, I think you are selecting “work” which I think means where workers in the county are commuting based on the title of the table. And “home” means where workers are commuting to from the county, if I understand correctly.
Work:
Jobs Counts by Counties Where Workers Live - Private Primary Jobs
Home:
Jobs Counts by Counties Where Workers are Employed - Private Primary Jobs
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