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We are T-7 days until the new Bulletin comes out based on 2020 Census data (according to the Federal Register notice that says June 2023). This will be the biggest release from 2023-2033 and changes in the interim are very small (like Pearsall County being added to San Antonio MSA a few years back).
So with that said, I wanted to get this community's predictions about the most talked about potentialities over the past decade and where you see them playing out. So here are the questions. You can answer any or all of them, and feel free to defend why:
Q1: Will San Francisco and San Jose merge MSAs?
My Response: I think it's a strong 'no.' If anything, the massive growth of tech in the San Jose area since 2013 means it is even less reliant on commuting into the San Francisco MSA. This is a dream fusion I've never seen as realistic.
Q2: Will Los Angeles and Riverside merge MSAs?
My Response: No. I give this <1% chance of happening. Most growth is in the Temecula/Murrietta area or the fringes of Inland Empire. Those people are less likely to commute into Los Angeles County than the existing population. So if the Inland Empire couldn't make it in prior decades, it won't happen now.
Recognizing that SF and San Jose are two separate and distinct MSA's on this forum will often result in ridicule, though I firmly believe they are (and the census recognizes them as such).
However, as BART continues to make inroads into San Jose, the idea that they are not one metro can more authoritatively be questioned. The nebulous nature of BART though (named for a region, not a metro) muddies the waters significantly.
As far as Los Angeles and Riverside, I believe there is a stronger case.
Many of us already see the Inland Empire as somewhat of a sham MSA, and it makes sense that its western cities would be counted in the LA MSA.
The Los Angeles Metro "A Line" recently became the world's longest light rail line, and Metro's official website shows Montclair (located in San Bernardino County) as a future station for Metro. So since there apparently will be a "Los Angeles Metro" branded transit line moving into the Inland Empire, I think this gives more weight to an LA/IE metro than a SF/SJ.
Its already been said that Harris County had the largest Hispanic and Black gains in the US. So for Houston, I'm guessing a large uptick in those demographics.
it's not just San Jose to the south of SF, it's also Stockton to the east. I don't think there will be a change but the Bay Area a job center keeps encroaching upon counties farther and farther away from the coast.
I was reading this article recently about how Merced(of all places) is now like this hot destination for bay area workers to buy homes, but it's 130 miles from SF, which is nuts.
I like these how they are right now, as CSA does tell the story where MSA doesn't. The one here that would likely receive the least pushback on combining would be SF/SJ, but not sure if it happens yet. If Riverside got pulled into LA it would only be because it's so weak, while LA is so dominant.
it's not just San Jose to the south of SF, it's also Stockton to the east. I don't think there will be a change but the Bay Area a job center keeps encroaching upon counties farther and farther away from the coast.
I was reading this article recently about how Merced(of all places) is now like this hot destination for bay area workers to buy homes, but it's 130 miles from SF, which is nuts.
Seriously? That's further than Chattanooga is from Atlanta. Or Biloxi, MS is from Pensacola, FL (Mississippi's not a neighbor to Florida)
Imo, Worcester is 1000x more likely to combine its MSA with Boston than Providence is. Ditto for Manchester/Nashua and Barnstable. Though maybe more like 500x for those two.
Would it be possible for the Boston MSA to “steal” Bristol County MA from the PVD MSA? Or is it essentially all-or-nothing?
The wild card for Boston would be adding Portland to the CSA. It’s far from the city but only about as far by land as P-Town, which is already in the CSA. I work in Boston’s northern suburbs, and we have a handful of commuters from southern ME. I imagine hybrid working and MA housing prices might have even more folks considering making the drive.
Last edited by Boston Shudra; 06-26-2023 at 07:27 PM..
it's not just San Jose to the south of SF, it's also Stockton to the east. I don't think there will be a change but the Bay Area a job center keeps encroaching upon counties farther and farther away from the coast.
I was reading this article recently about how Merced(of all places) is now like this hot destination for bay area workers to buy homes, but it's 130 miles from SF, which is nuts.
Los banos is where most people are commuting from, not merced proper.
I actually think CSA’s would break up. Super commuters are more likely to be of the PMC that can now work from home. If your some VP who lives in (what was) Fairfield County CT you simply wouldn’t commute to Manhattan anymore. And the further you are from the city you’re both more likely to not want to make the commute and more likely to be able to WFH. I would be pretty surprised if New Haven for example, stays in the NYC CSA and I would be shocked if any MSA’s combine into CSA’s whether it be Worcester, San Jose or Akron
The only possibility is maybe Hartford-New Haven or Hartford-Springfield simply because boundaries chAnged rather than commuting patterns
Imo, Worcester is 1000x more likely to combine its MSA with Boston than Providence is. Ditto for Manchester/Nashua and Barnstable. Though maybe more like 500x for those two.
Would it be possible for the Boston MSA to “steal” Bristol County MA from the PVD MSA? Or is it essentially all-or-nothing?
The wild card for Boston would be adding Portland to the CSA. It’s far from the city but only about as far by land as P-Town, which is already in the CSA. I work in Boston’s northern suburbs, and we have a handful of commuters from southern ME. I imagine hybrid working and MA housing prices might have even more folks considering making the drive.
You know, I was thinking this too. Some family used to live in Easton and I would always think... 'Thats the Providence area??' lol. I wonder the same. Even my uncle who lives in Seekonk (two towns to PVD) would commute to Boston area (inside 128). With New Bedford and Fall River also getting commuter rails in the future, maybe Bristol County MA goes to Boston by 2030 at least? It should... over Worcester County imho.
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