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Was there any indication as to when these would be released? Or is it like the census bureau and we can just assume Thursday?
The Federal Register notice just said June 2023, which means Friday is possible too, especially since it wouldn't be a Census release but an OMB Bulletin (and they don't follow Census's release routine).
Because MSA definitions affect multiple Federal statistical agencies, the delineations are done higher up the administrative ladder than the Census and will be issued as an OMB Bulletin. OMB has said that if there's a delay, "we will notify the public as soon as feasible" at their Statistical Programs website; seeing as there's no notice there as of today, I guess they're still expecting to post them tomorrow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa
Q3: Will Raleigh and Durham merge MSAs?
LEHD was showing that 25.1% of Durham's workforce was commuting from Wake as of 2017, vs. 27% from Durham itself. Overall, Raleigh-Cary MSA contributed 27.8% of Durham-Chapel Hill MSA's workforce, and this is significantly higher than any other cross-metro interchange. Unless the ACS figures are significantly different, I'm optimistic this combination will happen.
The two were separated only because OMB increased the interchange figure from 15% to 25%, and they were stuck around 20% commuting interchange for decades. Yet both Raleigh and Cary not only adjoin Durham, they have land within Durham County and thus the Durham MSA!
Because MSA definitions affect multiple Federal statistical agencies, the delineations are done higher up the administrative ladder than the Census and will be issued as an OMB Bulletin. OMB has said that if there's a delay, "we will notify the public as soon as feasible" at their Statistical Programs website; seeing as there's no notice there as of today, I guess they're still expecting to post them tomorrow.
LEHD was showing that 25.1% of Durham's workforce was commuting from Wake as of 2017, vs. 27% from Durham itself. Overall, Raleigh-Cary MSA contributed 27.8% of Durham-Chapel Hill MSA's workforce, and this is significantly higher than any other cross-metro interchange. Unless the ACS figures are significantly different, I'm optimistic this combination will happen.
The two were separated only because OMB increased the interchange figure from 15% to 25%, and they were stuck around 20% commuting interchange for decades. Yet both Raleigh and Cary not only adjoin Durham, they have land within Durham County and thus the Durham MSA!
What do you mean by cross metro Interchange? What specifically was increased from 15 to 25%?
The imbalance of county population and growth between Raleigh and Durham complicates metrics. Wake County is 1.175M and Durham County is 332,000, and the gap widens each year as Wake grows more rapidly. The commuters to Durham County from Wake (where most of the Triangle's suburbs are) is substantial, but they are likely representing a smaller and smaller percentage of all Wake commuters as the population of the county explodes. The scenario in the Triangle is somewhat counterintuitive to what one might expect in other metro area where residents from the smaller county are heading to the the larger county. RTP (Research Triangle Park) straddles both Wake and Durham County but the lion's share of the jobs there are on the Durham County side. This is where most of the cross county commuting happens, and it usually happens from suburban areas in Wake that are close to the where RTP straddles the two counties.
Yeah, there really isn't a reason for Raleigh and Durham to remain separate. Even if each country doesn't meet the 25 percent into the other, that doesn't exclude them either. Look at Youngstown-Warren in Northeast Ohio. Both Mahoning (Youngstown) to Trumbull (Warren) and Trumbull to Mahoning fall short of the 25 percent. But the numbers are roughly 20 percent in each direction so it puts them well over the 25 percent combined. Raleigh-Durham is pretty much the same scenario (including also bumping up against MSAs that aren't even in the CSA).
Why it's the easy no. 1 out of all the usually debated ones and the only one I think will actually happen.
Of the others that "should" be combined, you can at least make arguments for why they aren't...
Akron-Cleveland: barely meets the two-way 25 percent since Summit is around 20 to Cuyahoga and while Cuyahoga sends a big chunk to Summit in pure numbers, it is only about 5 percent of its total workforce. Plus, there is zero political push to combine the two.
Riverside/San Bernardino/LA: Riverside meets the 25 percent one-way number into LA/Orange, but San Bernardino doesn't. LA sends a minimal percent of their workforce population back to either. Plus, Riverside and San Bernardino counties are so huge land wise, basing this on county boundaries, a fraudulent Riverside/San Bernardino MSA makes more sense then stretching LA from San Diego to the south to Arizona and Nevada to the east.
SF/SJ: similar to Cleveland-Akron where it may meet the criteria if taking in two-way. But San Jose has a huge workforce of its own (even if it only came about due to proximity to SF) and it doesn't seem like there is a political push from the SJ side to merging with SF. I personally think of "San Francisco" as being anywhere around the Bay, so would merge them but don't see it happening.
Salt Lake/Provo/Ogden: I'm guessing there may be enough from Provo to Salt Lake and Ogden to Salt Lake where it could be combined. But Provo to Ogden is 90 miles apart ... and well over 100 miles a part from the northern areas of Ogden to the southern areas of Provo. That region would have to be more in the 4-5 million range combined before it realistically can be that stretched out of a "metro"
Worcester/Boston: if you take Middlesex and Suffolk combined as Boston, then it should be combined. But Worcester to Boston/Suffolk itself comes no where close to meeting the criteria. Boston, though, is already a spread out MSA and I would say most people outside New England probably think everywhere in New England is "Boston" anyway, so what is one more, lol?
Boulder/Denver and Ann Arbor Detroit: both those big college "metros" should be combined their neighboring big "ciities"
Playing with onTheMap, there might be some surprising stuff. I was comparing cbsa commuting data for Birmingham, Huntsville and Mobile and got the following (though I'd assume it's using commuting of all counties, not just to the core):
% of workforce commuting to Huntsville:
Decatur, AL...............13,091...50,392........26.0%
Albertville, AL.............5,208...30,225........17.2%
Scottsboro, AL............2,112...15,422........13.7%
Cullman, AL...............2,963...28,765........10.3%
The Shoals, AL..........3,720....41,987........8.9%
Fort Payne, AL...........1,072....20,934.........5.1%
Birmingham, AL.........7,702..357,302.........2.2%
Montgomery, AL.........1,683..105,515.........1.6%
Tuscaloosa, AL...........1,137....68,223.........1.7%
% of workforce commuting to Mobile:
Daphne-Fairhope, AL..18,519...70,215.......26.4%
Atmore, AL.................1,116.....9,656.......11.6%
Gulfport-Biloxi, MS.......3,139,...no data
Montgomery, AL..........1,472.105,515.........1.4%
Auburn-Opelika, AL........547...42,700.........1.3%
Tuscaloosa, AL...............711...68,223.........1.0%
Birmingham, AL..........3,253.357,302..........0.9%
Pensacola, FL..............1,382.157,905.........0.9%
Huntsville, AL.................849.154,316.........0.6%
So, though fuzzy, considering Birmingham has a decent number of non-core counties, it might reabsorb Jasper and Talladega along with it. Tuscaloosa might join the CSA along with Gadsden (before Anniston, a bit of a shock). Montgomery is surprisingly high, though not in contention of joining the CSA. Mobile's gotta be remote or something.
Huntsville might actually gain Decatur as part of the MSA, with Albertville as the CSA. Scottsboro might join soon. I was surprised how low the Shoals were. Even if I added commuters to Decatur, Cullman's still Bham territory. Kinda surprised there isn't more of a fight with Birmingham for it.
Mobile could reabsorb Baldwin county, but it's a bit odd how little it interacts with anything else. I thought there would've been more interaction with Pensacola with Mobile+Baldwin, but there isn't even though they share a media market. So this could very well become a MSA with no CSA.
Playing with onTheMap, there might be some surprising stuff. I was comparing cbsa commuting data for Birmingham, Huntsville and Mobile and got the following (though I'd assume it's using commuting of all counties, not just to the core):
% of workforce commuting to Huntsville:
Decatur, AL...............13,091...50,392........26.0%
Albertville, AL.............5,208...30,225........17.2%
Scottsboro, AL............2,112...15,422........13.7%
Cullman, AL...............2,963...28,765........10.3%
The Shoals, AL..........3,720....41,987........8.9%
Fort Payne, AL...........1,072....20,934.........5.1%
Birmingham, AL.........7,702..357,302.........2.2%
Montgomery, AL.........1,683..105,515.........1.6%
Tuscaloosa, AL...........1,137....68,223.........1.7%
% of workforce commuting to Mobile:
Daphne-Fairhope, AL..18,519...70,215.......26.4%
Atmore, AL.................1,116.....9,656.......11.6%
Gulfport-Biloxi, MS.......3,139,...no data
Montgomery, AL..........1,472.105,515.........1.4%
Auburn-Opelika, AL........547...42,700.........1.3%
Tuscaloosa, AL...............711...68,223.........1.0%
Birmingham, AL..........3,253.357,302..........0.9%
Pensacola, FL..............1,382.157,905.........0.9%
Huntsville, AL.................849.154,316.........0.6%
So, though fuzzy, considering Birmingham has a decent number of non-core counties, it might reabsorb Jasper and Talladega along with it. Tuscaloosa might join the CSA along with Gadsden (before Anniston, a bit of a shock). Montgomery is surprisingly high, though not in contention of joining the CSA. Mobile's gotta be remote or something.
Huntsville might actually gain Decatur as part of the MSA, with Albertville as the CSA. Scottsboro might join soon. I was surprised how low the Shoals were. Even if I added commuters to Decatur, Cullman's still Bham territory. Kinda surprised there isn't more of a fight with Birmingham for it.
Mobile could reabsorb Baldwin county, but it's a bit odd how little it interacts with anything else. I thought there would've been more interaction with Pensacola with Mobile+Baldwin, but there isn't even though they share a media market. So this could very well become a MSA with no CSA.
Based on those statistics, there should be a new Huntsville-Madison-Decatur MSA (IF the rest of the commuters in Morgan County follow the same trends. MSAs go by entire counties, not cities, so it could remain as is).
Hard to believe that 10,000 people travel from Huntsville and Montgomery to Birmingham to work.
Based on those statistics, there should be a new Huntsville-Madison-Decatur MSA (IF the rest of the commuters in Morgan County follow the same trends. MSAs go by entire counties, not cities, so it could remain as is).
Hard to believe that 10,000 people travel from Huntsville and Montgomery to Birmingham to work.
What is a "dweller"?
These were just comparing metros/micros, to get a hint of possibilities of where things could go. So it's more needing to break down of how many from Morgan and/or Lawrence commute to Madison county as opposed to Limestone or guessing if Limestone becomes considered a core county (Similar with Shelby or, by a long shot, St. Clair for Bham). It's pretty safe to assume Washington county does nothing for Mobile, though.
For Montgomery, Calera/Montevallo and Clanton aren't too far from the northern suburbs of Montgomery. So theoretically, there could be some exaggeration due to that. Huntsville/Bham is a harder reach, as even if going to Oneonta or Warrior, Decatur/Hartselle and Cullman seem to be closer options.
Other than remote work possibilities or wide service areas, another option is spouses in highly technical fields working in the different cities. A Huntsville engineer might be married to doctor who got residency at UAB and they decided it wasn't worth moving, or something. It's a long commute, but probably a shorter drive than commuting from one side of Atlanta to the other. Considering the back and forth migration between Atlanta and the northern half of Alabama, it's not unlikely to find that mindset. 20 k people does seem a bit high, though.
Dweller was a term I made up for the people living in a county according the source. I assume its the working population who commutes to work (even if just within same metro)
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