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Anyone who has been to the Halekalani in the past year knows they don't need to renovate. The real message is they don't expect to make money for at least a year so closing down makes sense - definitely a blow to the State in terms of tax revenue.
I said in March that many hotels will probably stay closed for over a year. I don't think most will open til next summer at the earliest. Halekulani will likely close for 2 years as design/engineering/permits alone will take a year. Waikiki may take 5 years til it comes back to the same volume as 2019. But based on the public sentiment that is very anti-tourism, it will likely never return to those levels.
I still think there will be at least one more PPP round that is targeted towards certain industries or perhaps broad but with more restrictions. And the unemployment benefits will continue til at least as long as governments still continue to place restrictions on business activities. It is pretty much criminal for the govt to force businesses to stay closed and not give full benefits to employees that cannot return to work, no fault of their own.
Let’s take the same poll when CARES/Unemployment/PPP/Rent moratoriums end
Many companies got government bailout loans with the stipulation that layoffs can't happen until 4th quarter (October 1). This along with the CARES unemployment is what is propping things up economically. There are many who still have their jobs but don't realize the clock is ticking.
Will rushing to open up a month or two earlier change that significantly, or make it worse by dragging out the pandemic longer?
The sooner they open - the faster they will reduce the timeline for recovery. I don't think anything will be different in September, October, November, etc.
The Halekalani closing for a year - or maybe more, should be a strong hint to the State that delays are likely to bring just as high profile closures. It isn't just the jobs - all that tax revenue lost as well.
Besides a likelihood of more long-term hotel closures - I see some of the major footprint stores at Ala Moana and Waikiki to close its doors, Macy's - Nieman Marcus - Louis Vuitton - Gucci - etc to bail.
Another wave that will be continuing is small businesses/restaurants - while we have many already, watch for an acceleration to happen. After Oct 1, Hawaiian Airlines will be a fraction of what it is today - many people don't realize International destinations were higher than mainland destinations.
Our inability to open will shut businesses permanently and delay recoveries - but hey, they didn't get Covid. People won't be able to pay their bills - feed the family - but no Covid.
The sooner they open - the faster they will reduce the timeline for recovery. I don't think anything will be different in September, October, November, etc.
The Halekalani closing for a year - or maybe more, should be a strong hint to the State that delays are likely to bring just as high profile closures. It isn't just the jobs - all that tax revenue lost as well.
Besides a likelihood of more long-term hotel closures - I see some of the major footprint stores at Ala Moana and Waikiki to close its doors, Macy's - Nieman Marcus - Louis Vuitton - Gucci - etc to bail.
Another wave that will be continuing is small businesses/restaurants - while we have many already, watch for an acceleration to happen. After Oct 1, Hawaiian Airlines will be a fraction of what it is today - many people don't realize International destinations were higher than mainland destinations.
Our inability to open will shut businesses permanently and delay recoveries - but hey, they didn't get Covid. People won't be able to pay their bills - feed the family - but no Covid.
I am all for getting the economy firing again.
I just don't think opening up without a plan for managing the pandemic will accomplish that. We are seeing it live in action with many states now having to close back up. While countries that did this in a more controller way seem to be able to maintain momentum.
I agree with you that the leadership in this state has been ineptly slow in developing a plan (they are not alone, nor solely to blame), i wish that were not the case. But, we have to live in the reality we have.
I would rather them take another month or two and develop a sustainable plan than to rush to re-open and just set ourselves back many more months. I think that would do more damage to our long term recovery.
I am all for getting the economy firing again.
I just don't think opening up without a plan for managing the pandemic will accomplish that. We are seeing it live in action with many states now having to close back up. While countries that did this in a more controller way seem to be able to maintain momentum.
I agree with you that the leadership in this state has been ineptly slow in developing a plan (they are not alone, nor solely to blame), i wish that were not the case. But, we have to live in the reality we have.
I would rather them take another month or two and develop a sustainable plan than to rush to re-open and just set ourselves back many more months. I think that would do more damage to our long term recovery.
The plan is testing tourists. In another month or two, the plan will be the same. Testing tourists. Another month or two and the situation is FAR worse. Hawaii needs at least a fraction of tourists to return to survive NOW. The situation is DIRE, it is unfortunate that many people cannot see it. Once the extended federal unemployment ends, it will get even worse. The governor has ZERO solution to address any of these issues. He has provided NO help to private citizens or businesses. The only thing he really did was shut down businesses and the economy and provide $150 million in raises to state workers. 40% of tenants facing eviction is INSANE. I live in a condo in town, and there's a lot of people moving out, unable to pay rent. I'm guessing plenty are planning to cohabitate in larger family groups because of the recession.
Nearly 40% of tenants were unable to pay their rent last month while a similar number asked for a payment plan, discount or rent reduction, according to a survey of the Honolulu Board of Realtors.
Has anyone on this forum even been going out to restaurants or non-essential stores lately? I have been going out to eat several times a week for the last month or so and almost every place I've been to is virtually dead or at best, 25% peak capacity. The govt can reopen everything and allow tourists to come, but the volume of people that will patronize these businesses or visit our state won't be enough to keep more than 10% of them profitable.
This is not about businesses/tourism being allowed to re-open, it's about public sentiment. If the latter is not positive, the former doesn't matter. The vast majority of people don't want to go out and patronize businesses whether they are receiving $600 checks or not.
Has anyone on this forum even been going out to restaurants or non-essential stores lately? I have been going out to eat several times a week for the last month or so and almost every place I've been to is virtually dead or at best, 25% peak capacity. The govt can reopen everything and allow tourists to come, but the volume of people that will patronize these businesses or visit our state won't be enough to keep more than 10% of them profitable.
I go out a few times a week. I agree all the places are dead and many won’t survive much longer. I don’t think the ones that called it quits surprised many people. That will change.
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