Still booming? (Houston, Sugar Land, The Woodlands: apartment complexes, houses, employment)

[Htown2013]

Originally Posted by AliefPropOwner

We be in decline by end of 2015. Late 2016 and into 2017 is when to begin accumulation.

What is your basis for this? What areas are you specifically interested in? When do you think prices will return to current valuations given a rising interest rate environment?

[ToyYot]

Originally Posted by AliefPropOwner

We be in decline by end of 2015. Late 2016 and into 2017 is when to begin accumulation.

All this from someone who bought in Royal Oaks.

[AliefPropOwner]

Originally Posted by Htown2013

What is your basis for this? What areas are you specifically interested in? When do you think prices will return to current valuations given a rising interest rate environment?

My basis is the 30 year 1986 playbook. Its the same Saudi playbook. Outlier areas will get decimated. More centralized areas will be just generally blah okay. Already overvalued areas like Cross Creek, Long Meadow, Aliana will get 25% to 35% haircuts.

[Htown2013]

Originally Posted by AliefPropOwner

My basis is the 30 year 1986 playbook. Outlier areas will get decimated. More centralized areas will be just generally blah okay. Already overvalued areas like Cross Creek, Long Meadow, Aliana will get 25% to 35% haircuts.

THIS IS NOT AS BAD AS 1986. Short term 1-2 years, maybe, maybe not. Time will tell. But 5 years out WILL NOT BE AS BAD as 1986. Oil this low is not sustainable in the global markets for that long.

[sxrckr]

Why is anyone taking this person seriously? Who buys in Alief (especially the most expensive part) as an investment? That's why he's disparaging western communities families actually move to while skipping past Alief because it is, well, pretty bad and has been for years. This person either has no clue or has a personal agenda so why waste your time trying to reason with him?

[AliefPropOwner]

Originally Posted by Htown2013

THIS IS NOT AS BAD AS 1986. Short term 1-2 years, maybe, maybe not. Time will tell. But 5 years out WILL NOT BE AS BAD as 1986. Oil this low is not sustainable in the global markets for that long.

Perhaps not as bad as 1986. But for Houston and Texas, it's worse than 2008. It's something in-between yet closer to 1986.

[Htown2013]

Originally Posted by AliefPropOwner

Perhaps not as bad as 1986. But for Houston and Texas, it's worse than 2008. It's something in-between yet closer to 1986.

If I were you then I'd sell my Royal Oaks property zoned to lousy schools ASAP at the peak, and then buy in a place that has much better longer term potential in your 2016 timeframe. By your logic, Royal Oaks will absolutely tank at least 35%.

[chris_ut]

Oil went under $10 in 86, it's still over $50 so that's not a good comparison.

[Keyan]

Originally Posted by ToyYot

EC is far from downtown?? Who cares?! EC values are tied to the EC/Westchase - downtown is just a decent commute from here. West U will hold it's value because of location AND schools, just like anywhere else.

Why do you think the tide that lifted all boats since 2008 is somehow now going to have a different effect on the way down? How much class A office space has been built o/s of the loop since then? Are there no O&G companies downtown anymore?

Your 'inner proximity' is a delusion, its proximity to employment centers and good public schools. This is what sells and what sold quickly in the middle of the last downturn and will again. - lol at delusion

I just told you, proximity is why. People are moving inwards, they don't want to live far from the city. why? because thats where everything is at, efficiency - in a collapse, EC Westchase is not exactly going to be a desired area.

It's not about just employment centers. It's about Social Life/Night Life, Museums, Theaters, Restaurants/Bars, Sports Venues, TMC, (I can keep going)

I alone know of 8 people who have lived in Houston their entire lives and are finally moving inside the loop, 6 of them have already made this move in 2014. The other 2 are still home hunting. They don't give a crap about schools. For them it's location. I think you're the one experiencing "delusion" and quit being bitter/inside the loop hater. you make the most stupid argument "Oh well EC is not exactly a suburb" so what? that still won't change the fact that prices will drop there during a collapse.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by Keyan

I just told you, proximity is why. People are moving inwards, they don't want to live far from the city. why? because thats where everything is at, efficiency - in a collapse, EC Westchase is not exactly going to be a desired area.

It's not about just employment centers. It's about Social Life/Night Life, Museums, Theaters, Restaurants/Bars, Sports Venues, TMC, (I can keep going)

I alone know of 8 people who have lived in Houston their entire lives and are finally moving inside the loop, 6 of them have already made this move in 2014. The other 2 are still home hunting. They don't give a crap about schools. For them it's location. I think you're the one experiencing "delusion" and quit being bitter/inside the loop hater. you make the most stupid argument "Oh well EC is not exactly a suburb" so what? that still won't change the fact that prices will drop there during a collapse.

Most of the neighborhoods surrounding the EC are considered Memorial and will hold their value just fine during any downturn in the economy..