Houston-Dallas high speed rail: eminent domain approved (Fort Worth: car rental, rental)

[SanJac]

Seems this project is dying…. I’m disappointed about this…

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/e...nt-have-to-be/

“Plenty of shortsighted people have been rooting for Texas’ high-speed rail project to fail from the moment it was announced.

Sadly, it looks ever more likely they will get their wish. The deck has been stacked from the beginning against Texas Central Railway, which had proposed a privately funded line linking Houston and Dallas that would have put our state on the world map as an international leader in transportation.

But as happens too often in our country these days, the naysayers got their way. Not only are we still waiting on a ruling from the Texas Supreme Court on whether the project can go forward, we also know that Texas Central’s chief executive, Carlos Aguilar, has resigned. His sendoff reads to us as a statement that this project is over.”

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by SanJac

Seems this project is dying…. I’m disappointed about this…

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/e...nt-have-to-be/

“Plenty of shortsighted people have been rooting for Texas’ high-speed rail project to fail from the moment it was announced.

Sadly, it looks ever more likely they will get their wish. The deck has been stacked from the beginning against Texas Central Railway, which had proposed a privately funded line linking Houston and Dallas that would have put our state on the world map as an international leader in transportation.

But as happens too often in our country these days, the naysayers got their way. Not only are we still waiting on a ruling from the Texas Supreme Court on whether the project can go forward, we also know that Texas Central’s chief executive, Carlos Aguilar, has resigned. His sendoff reads to us as a statement that this project is over.”

Even if there hadn't been the legal issues, I just don't see how the project would ever fly financially. HSR has way too high up-front capital costs to ever get a satisfactory return on the back end, and land sales at stations would never make up the deficit.

[WRM20]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

Even if there hadn't been the legal issues, I just don't see how the project would ever fly financially. HSR has way too high up-front capital costs to ever get a satisfactory return on the back end, and land sales at stations would never make up the deficit.

Good idea or not, I never saw how the proposed economics would work. If the fare was going to be $300 round trip, just how many people would pay that instead of driving or flying, especially for a family of 4.

[hbcu]

going to dallas is going to cost $100 one way by car or for some cars already is - if rail can come in at $75 a ticket with less wear and tear on the body I'll easily pay a ticket

[oceangaia]

Originally Posted by hbcu

going to dallas is going to cost $100 one way by car or for some cars already is - if rail can come in at $75 a ticket with less wear and tear on the body I'll easily pay a ticket

1. I don't think it costs $100 each way by car. While the true cost is more than the cost of gas, you can't use the full IRS mileage rate because a lot of that is fixed overhead like insurance and registration, which isn't going to be any less if you take the train.

2. The cost via car is about the same for 1-4 people whereas the train ticket is per person. Put 2 or more in the car and the cost comparison is lopsided.

3. I don't think the rail ticket would be $75. Look up fares on Amtrak sometime.

[oceangaia]

Originally Posted by SanJac

Seems this project is dying…. I’m disappointed about this…

https://www.dallasnews.com/opinion/e...nt-have-to-be/

“Plenty of shortsighted people have been rooting for Texas’ high-speed rail project to fail from the moment it was announced.

Sadly, it looks ever more likely they will get their wish. The deck has been stacked from the beginning against Texas Central Railway, which had proposed a privately funded line linking Houston and Dallas that would have put our state on the world map as an international leader in transportation.

But as happens too often in our country these days, the naysayers got their way. Not only are we still waiting on a ruling from the Texas Supreme Court on whether the project can go forward, we also know that Texas Central’s chief executive, Carlos Aguilar, has resigned. His sendoff reads to us as a statement that this project is over.”

This is exactly the kind of head-in-the-sand denial that cause such projects to fail. I was here on CD predicting it would fail like 7 or 8 years ago, not because I hate rail but because the financials didn't make sense. I don't know if the rail fans who were singing joy then were just fooled or exercising extreme optimism but it's pretty easy to outline dream proposals and create virtual drawings and even get a few hundred K for an environmental study or two but when it comes time to put big money down they always fail. TGV wasn't killed by SWA, it was killed when their EU financiers decided not to give them money and TGV was unable to post the required bond with the state despite being given a year extension. All SWA did was make sure TxDot followed the law and didn't use public money to cover TGV private debt.


This was always a real estate development project disguised as a transportation project.

[gwarnecke]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

Even if there hadn't been the legal issues, I just don't see how the project would ever fly financially. HSR has way too high up-front capital costs to ever get a satisfactory return on the back end, and land sales at stations would never make up the deficit.

Exactly - better that all involved cut their losses now, rather than end up with a wildly-unprofitable project or, even worse, one that never gets finished. Look at California as an example of how poorly this could've gone.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by oceangaia

This is exactly the kind of head-in-the-sand denial that cause such projects to fail. I was here on CD predicting it would fail like 7 or 8 years ago, not because I hate rail but because the financials didn't make sense. I don't know if the rail fans who were singing joy then were just fooled or exercising extreme optimism but it's pretty easy to outline dream proposals and create virtual drawings and even get a few hundred K for an environmental study or two but when it comes time to put big money down they always fail. TGV wasn't killed by SWA, it was killed when their EU financiers decided not to give them money and TGV was unable to post the required bond with the state despite being given a year extension. All SWA did was make sure TxDot followed the law and didn't use public money to cover TGV private debt.


This was always a real estate development project disguised as a transportation project.

Maybe so, but pretty twisted financial planning to have to pay not only for on-site infrastructure in the station areas PLUS a hyper-expensive HSR line in between - not to mention there's little evidence that the resulting station area development would be exceptionally high value (otherwise, you'd see super high-value development next to airports like Love Field and Hobby, which you don't).

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by gwarnecke

Exactly - better that all involved cut their losses now, rather than end up with a wildly-unprofitable project or, even worse, one that never gets finished. Look at California as an example of how poorly this could've gone.

And it would appear the major potential investors that were approached by the consortium felt the same way. Note that the consortium never announced that they had sufficient capital commitments to fully construct the thing. If the numbers were truly, legitimately believable and attractive, such commitments would have materialized even if there were still legal questions.

The California project is proof that (1) Utopia doesn't come cheap, (2) it's not real, and (3) starry-eyed voters will still allow themselves to be bamboozled.

[LocalPlanner]

Originally Posted by hbcu

going to dallas is going to cost $100 one way by car or for some cars already is - if rail can come in at $75 a ticket with less wear and tear on the body I'll easily pay a ticket

The target market was always those who fly today, especially business flyers. Conversions from driving would have been gravy.