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Mon 7Sept 11aEDT/AST Tropical Storm Paulette forms (formally 92L & TD17) halfway between NW Africa & Caribbean. Earliest "P" storm on known record (previous record: 'Philippe' 17Sept of the crazy 2005 season).
Estimated winds 40mph(65km/h), drifting WNW 3mph(6km/h), pressure 1005mb
Located about 1,375miles(2,215km) E of N Leeward Islands.
Steady strengthening as drifts. The thinking is the stronger it gets the more likely it will be pulled up and out to sea, weaker may allow it to not be influenced as easily and may miss it's first chance to re-curve but other opportunities to do so await it. Steering by High pressure and several troughs to pass by.
So uncertainty in it's future but most guidance suggest out to sea eventually. This isn't a guarantee though so worth keeping an eye on. Nothing really brings it to the US at this time tho in model guidance.
Tue 8Sept 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving NW 8mph(13km/h)
Pressure 995mb
Center about 1,230miles(1,980km) E of N Leeward Islands.
Running into Wind shear now, blowing storms off to the NE, you can see this on satellite with outer edges/outflow being moved VERY quickly far off to it's NE. Center of storm is more along the SW corner of storms. This should overall limit/slow further intensification, eventfully start to weaken it.
First chance to turn North coming up as could slip up between two High pressures. If misses then will try to curve up around the next one while still well out to sea. Proximity to Rene later this week may influence track as well.
Wed 9Sept 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 60mph(95km/h)
Moving WNW 10mph(17km/h)
Pressure 996mb
Center about 1,035miles(1,665km) E of N Leeward Islands.
Potential threat to Bermuda increasing.
Thurs 10Sept 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 50mph(85km/h)
Moving WNW 9mph(15km/h)
Pressure 997mb
Center about 1,145miles(1,840km) SE of Bermuda.
Wind shear high, but relaxes soon, storm expected to strengthen into a hurricane. Should turn North and re-curve around the steering influence of High Pressure. The timing of this North turn will be the difference of possible impacts to Bermuda early next week. They should be preparing for a Hurricane just in case.
Fri 11Sept 5pEDT/AST:
Winds 65mph(100km/h)
Moving NW 13mph(20km/h)
Pressure 989mb
Center about 855miles(1,380km) SE of Bermuda.
Hurricane Watch for Bermuda should be issued tonight or Saturday where may hit as turns North out to sea Monday.
Waves from the storm to start reaching the US late this weekend, which will increase rip current threat.
Sat 12Sept 8aEDT/AST:
Winds 70mph(110km/h)
Moving NW 16mph(26km/h)
Pressure 987mb
Center about 590miles(955km) SE of Bermuda.
TS winds extend up to 205miles(335km) from center.
Just as the storm was preparing to ramp up, in the last few hours it appears Paulette has ingested a small pocket of dry air and looks a little ragged on IR imagery. This may not persist long though as the dry air pocket is small and storm has a strong vorticity which will help it recover quickly with conditions only improving ahead. Last few frames of visible & IR imagery show new storms firing up already. NHC forecast possible Cat2, maybe even Cat3, near Bermuda early Monday.
Tropical Storm Warning & Hurricane Watch up for Bermuda.
Sat 12Sept 8pEDT/AST:
Winds 70mph(110km/h)
Moving WNW 15mph(24km/h)
Pressure 981mb
Center about 415miles(670km) SE of Bermuda.
Expected to be hurricane tonight, Hurricane warning for Bermuda.
Sat 12Sept 11pEDT/AST:
Winds 75mph(120km/h)
Moving WNW 14mph(22km/h)
Pressure 981mb
Cat 1 Hurricane
Center about 385miles(615km) SE of Bermuda.
Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 195miles(315km).
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