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I'm in the bull's-eye.
Wish I could send it to that moron in Florida.
Stay safe. Coastal Louisiana seems to have been hammered nonstop the past couple of years. Really, Gulf hurricanes in general seem to be more frequent. Maybe that’s just an assumption.
The afternoon (12z) Euro wind *gust* map model...showing high winds well inland. These numbers are in knots (1 knot = 1.15mph, so multiply the knot number by 1.15 to give you mph). This map will continue to adjust in intensity and to the left or right by possibly dozens of miles, so don't take as set in stone or hey I'm just outside of the bad stuff and only getting 30. Key point....where ever this ends up tracking will be doing damage well inland into portions of the TN valley. Typically winds of around 40mph is where trees and power lines go down. Less wind if ground is more saturated before hand.
The afternoon (12z) Euro wind *gust* map model...showing high winds well inland. These numbers are in knots (1 knot = 1.15mph, so multiply the knot number by 1.15 to give you mph). This map will continue to adjust in intensity and to the left or right by possibly dozens of miles, so don't take as set in stone or hey I'm just outside of the bad stuff and only getting 30. Key point....where ever this ends up tracking will be doing damage well inland into portions of the TN valley. Typically winds of around 40mph is where trees and power lines go down. Less wind if ground is more saturated before hand.
Reminds me of a Tornado path. Similar in the way that the destruction will only be within a certain mile width. In Euro's case a 50-70 mile wide path and 300 miles inland.
Those outside that 70 mile path wont get anything too destructive
Fri 27Aug 5pEDT/4pCDT: Winds 80mph(130km/h), moving NW 15mph(24km/h), pressure 985mb. Hurricane winds extend up to 25miles(35km) from center, TS winds 90miles (150km).
Changes:
-NHC forecast 140mph Cat4 into Louisiana.
-US Watches become Warnings (time based)
-Surge values raised, now as follows:
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft
Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft
Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft
-NHC notes that local levees outside the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System could be over-topped (note some flood maps don't include some levee supported areas since the area is "protected").
-Rain 8-16inches Gulf coastal region, isolated 20in. Well inland into TN valley 4-8+inches.
New Orleans seems to keep watching these storms going through their front yard but it always seems to miss their house. No wonder they had gotten so complacent pre-Katrina.
NHC's forecast track has GNO on the dirty side-- down the bayou / Bayou Lafourche (where my wife is from) as well. Folks know how to prepare down there, but nothing to mess with. I hope Port Fourchon doesn't become unrecognizable.
Water levels running around 1 foot above normal some locations before Ida impacts begin. Here's current levels compared to normal. Will try and update this list more as the storm approaches this weekend (source: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/in...storm/Ida.html ):
In order from East to West:
Pensacola, FL: +1ft
Dauphin Island, AL: +1ft
Coast Guard Sector, Mobile, AL: +1.3ft
Pascagoula, MS: +0.8ft
Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, MS: +.08ft
Shell Beach, LA: +1.75ft
New Canal Station, LA (Lake Pontchartrain at New Orleans): +1.65ft
Pilottown, LA: +0.20ft
Pilots Station East, SW Pass, LA: +1.2ft
Grand Isle, LA: 0.6ft
Port Fourchon, Belle Pass, LA: +0.6ft
Berwick, Atchafalaya River, LA (just SW of Morgan City): +0.2ft
Amerada Pass, LA: +0.6ft
Eugene Island, LA: +0.7ft
Fresh Water Canal Locks: +1.1ft
Calcasieu Pass, LA: +0.8ft
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