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Mon 28Aug 8pEDT/7pCDT: Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving North at 8mph(13km/h), pressure 983mb. Center closer to Cuba - about 20miles(30km) SW of W tip of Cuba. No real changes again for now.
Now it all depends on how fast the storm moves and if a high pressure system blocks it and keeps it stationary or slows it down when it makes landfall. The devastating flooding from recent moderately powerful storms have all had that factor to blame.
11pm Monday NHC track update. Very little change in thinking. Track and intensity almost unchanged. Tropical Storm warnings for a big chunk of the Florida east coast and lower Georgia now. spaghettimodels.com
Now it all depends on how fast the storm moves and if a high pressure system blocks it and keeps it stationary or slows it down when it makes landfall. The devastating flooding from recent moderately powerful storms have all had that factor to blame.
Latest GFS shows it doing a loop and hitting florida on the east side after exiting Carolinas.
Tue 29Aug 5aEDT/4aCDT: Winds 75mph(120km/h), moving North at 14mph(22km/h), pressure 981mb. Cat1 Hurricane. Now starting to pick up movement speed. Has passed N of Cuba, now about 85miles(135km) North. Center about 370miles(600km) SSW of Tampa. Hurricane winds extend 15miles(30km) from center, TS winds 160miles(260km).
Warnings dropped for Yucatan Peninsula.
The timing has once again slowed some, now landfall mid morning after sunrise Wednesday. This may also be why it starts to meander between US and Bermuda this weekend...misses it's door out to sea perhaps.
Slight nudge to the West in track with landfall near Steinhatchee, but NHC notes they are East of most of the models. NHC has existing back into Atlantic between Charleston and Myrtle Beach SC Thursday morning.
Eyewall almost closed. Some light wind shear has been affecting system core but once closes off an eye it can protect itself and shear lessens as heads more into the Gulf today. Still calls for rapid intensification later today with 120mph when West of Tampa later tonight leaving several hours of intensification possible before landfall.
Rains enter FL today. Brief tornadoes will be possible along West FL, generally short lived and follow direction of rain that spawned them.
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