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Tues 17Oct - TS Norma formed off the SW Mexico coast Tuesday afternoon. As of 11pEDT satellite estimated winds 50mph(85km/h), moving NW 8mph(13km/h), pressure 1000mb. No Watches/Warnings for land yet, but likely coming Wednesday. NHC has 100mph hurricane just off the S tip of Baja peninsula Sunday and potentially curving back into the mainland after clipping or passing near Baja.
Wed 18Oct 5pEDT satellite estimated winds 80mph(130km/h), moving N 8mph(13km/h), pressure 984mb. Classic looking young hurricane this evening. Very expansive cloud field, like showers coming into Mexico some areas as well. NHC now with Cat3 later Thursday, then steady weakening due to wind shear creeping in.
Models agree thru about Saturday on general direction towards S tip of Baja peninsula, but then all over the place there after. Some models curve near / across S Baja and into Western Mexico, others stall / meander near S Baja then curve back into Mexico. Possible high beach erosion / rain event. Potential for hurricane / near hurricane force winds near land for a period as well.
Thurs 19Oct 8aEDT satellite estimated winds 125mph(205km/h), moving N 6mph(9km/h), pressure 950mb. Cat3. Air recon arrives later today for in person check up. Hurricane Watch for S region of Baja peninsula, therefore NHC updates storm stats every 3hrs.
Sat 21Oct 8pEDT Winds 70mph(110km/h), moving NNE 6mph(9km/h), pressure 986mb. Now Tropical Storm after peaking Thursday at 130mph. Wind shear knocked down thereafter. Center over S tip of Baja peninsula just NNE of Cabo San Lucas. May dump a foot of rain or so S Baja and into mainland Mexico to the E of there before quickly dissipates Monday after landfall.
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