2023 City Data Stock Picking Game 2023 (recession, past, IRA, stocks)

[JRR]

My picks have a market cap of between 42-491 million so yeah, compared to the S&P 500 they are going to be considered riskier. However, they all are potentially a target for going private or being bought out by a larger company and that is something I look for when I am investing in this arena. My purely speculative guess is that at least one of my picks and maybe two will not exist as an independent company by the end of the year.

[Skezo]

Originally Posted by moguldreamer

NVDA's Beta is 1.8, far greater (i.e., far riskier) than that of the S&P 500 (1.0)



AAPL's Beta is 1.3, also greater (i.e., far riskier) than that of the S&P 500.



TSLA's Beta is a whopping 2.1 -- over double the risk of the S&P 500!!!



Your picks:
PFE -- Beta is 0.6 -- far less risky than the S&P 500 (1.0)
CECC -- Beta is 1.3, far riskier than the S&P 500 (1.0)
PL -- <beta not reported for this>
IMMR -- Betas is 1.4, far riskier than the S&P 500's risk (1.0)



CURO - Beta is 2.6 -- far, far, far riskier than the S&P 500
AIRG - Beta is 1.0 - same risk as the S&P 500
PSIX - Beta is 0.6 - far less risky than the S&P 500
EGY - Beta is 1.6 - far riskier than the S&P 500



SNAP - Beta of 1.2, riskier than the S&P 500
WBD - Beta of 1.5, far riskier than the S&P 500
INTC - Beta of 0.8, less risky than the S&P 500
F - Beta of 1.5, far riskier than the S&P 500


****
The overall level of risk in the picks is far greater than that of the S&P 500. The incremental risk in the portfolio picks is the key driver of portfolio performance in most of these.

I think you're confusing volatility with risk.

I wish it was as simple as picking stocks with a high beta to get outsized returns relative to the S&P 500.

[treasurekidd]

Originally Posted by Skezo

I think you're confusing volatility with risk.

I wish it was as simple as picking stocks with a high beta to get outsized returns relative to the S&P 500.

Yes, BETA is a measure of volatility, and volatility is not the same as risk.

[moguldreamer]

Originally Posted by Skezo

I think you're confusing volatility with risk.

I was unclear. My bad.

Beta (β), primarily used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), is a measure of the volatility–or systematic risk–of a security or portfolio relative to the variance of the market as a whole.

In the game, I think many of us "swing for the fences" so to speak. Winning the game comes with enduring glory and adoration from all
Coming in last, while ignoble, is not materially different from coming in the middle of the pack.

[organic_donna]

Originally Posted by 1insider

That's not a winning strategy unless you're a wild, risk-taking investor which judging from your posts you're obviously not. Prudent investing will not win this game.

Originally Posted by moguldreamer

I was unclear. My bad.

Beta (β), primarily used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), is a measure of the volatility–or systematic risk–of a security or portfolio relative to the variance of the market as a whole.

In the game, I think many of us "swing for the fences" so to speak. Winning the game comes with enduring glory and adoration from all
Coming in last, while ignoble, is not materially different from coming in the middle of the pack.

This is the first time I played the game. I have a passion for following the stock market, so I threw in my chips. I have been watching NVDA for several years and I felt it was very undervalued. That’s why I chose it, and I also own it in my personal account. Tesla was way down too, so a good chance of it going up, and Apple is always a winner in my book.

I was initially #17, and figured that’s where I would stay. I never had any expectation of winning the game, and I still don’t. I have had my 5 minutes of fame, and I am happy with that. I hope we can learn from each other. Let’s all stay humble.
Donna

[Skezo]

Originally Posted by moguldreamer

I was unclear. My bad.

Beta (β), primarily used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), is a measure of the volatility–or systematic risk–of a security or portfolio relative to the variance of the market as a whole.

In the game, I think many of us "swing for the fences" so to speak. Winning the game comes with enduring glory and adoration from all
Coming in last, while ignoble, is not materially different from coming in the middle of the pack.

Ehhh if that's someone's main goal then just doing 3 stocks at 60/20/20 is the way to go, which is far riskier but gives a chance of one homerun putting you on top the leaderboard. Game probably would be a bit better if amount of stocks and percentages in each were fixed.

[moguldreamer]

Originally Posted by organic_donna

This is the first time I played the game. I have a passion for following the stock market, so I threw in my chips. I have been watching NVDA for several years and I felt it was very undervalued. That’s why I chose it, and I also own it in my personal account. Tesla was way down too, so a good chance of it going up, and Apple is always a winner in my book.

I was initially #17, and figured that’s where I would stay. I never had any expectation of winning the game, and I still don’t. I have had my 5 minutes of fame, and I am happy with that. I hope we can learn from each other. Let’s all stay humble.
Donna

I like NVDA as well. I've had a significant position for a decade in my personal account.
I've owned AAPL since I started working there well over 35 years ago (stock options, employee stock purchase plan and the like) and still own every share. Both are very well run companies (although when I started working at AAPL, we used to joke that the only difference between the Boy Scouts and Apple was the Boy Scouts had adult supervision).

[moguldreamer]

Originally Posted by treasurekidd

Yes, BETA is a measure of volatility, and volatility is not the same as risk.

The beta (β) of an investment security (i.e., a stock) is a measurement of its volatility of returns relative to the entire market. It is used as a measure of risk and is an integral part of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). A company with a higher beta has greater risk and also greater expected returns.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.co...is-beta-guide/

While individual investors tend not to use the CAPM, Beta is an informational measure of risk in academic finance.

The beta coefficient can be interpreted as follows:

β =1 exactly as volatile (risky) as the market
β >1 more volatile (risky) than the market
β <1>0 less volatile (risky) than the market
β =0 uncorrelated to the market
β <0 negatively correlated to the market

[Newporttom]

This week's numbers

Pl Name Total
1 Organic_Donna $142,519.37
2 Newporttom . $139,144.73
3 DannyHobkins $131,998.14
4 formerlynorthofnowhere . $129,653.45
5 Fire42 $128,460.96
6 fleaflicker $127,845.35
7 sugarland_bubba $124,096.83
8 edglock21 $123,487.07
9 Skezo $120,909.05
10 sammynyc $120,829.77
11 My Kind of Town $116,316.17
12 49erfan916 $115,934.34
13 MadManOfBethesda $115,720.89
14 lewdog $113,599.81
15 GeorgiaTransplant $113,071.72
16 ShampooBanana $112,572.35
17 OhioJB $111,839.99
18 Ranredd $111,299.58
19 Florida2014 $111,276.95
20 Wadejay26 $110,856.62
21 moguldreamer $109,103.21
22 Mustang84 $109,053.55
23 JRR $108,956.21
24 MaverickDD $108,122.03
25 Creeksitter $107,468.84
26 Treasurekidd $105,516.16
27 drinkthekoolaid $105,473.38
28 PhoebesMom $105,182.63
29 Saquatches $104,910.39
30 artillery77 $104,503.46
31 drewdjeg $104,315.33
32 hitman619 $103,612.18
33 Christinem331 $103,297.73
34 bmw355xi $103,267.86
35 leastprime $102,764.30
36 jlvs2run $102,387.76
37 ohio peasant $102,021.69
38 gamebird98 $101,939.40
39 sitonmywhat $99,651.78
40 mike1003 $99,599.35
41 ImmerLernen $99,501.51
42 TaloSun $98,183.81
43 capoeira $98,068.93
44 BeerGeek $91,931.76
45 fibonacci $90,216.63

Median $108,956.21
Average Portfolio: $110,899.62

S&P Index $106,536.27

[sitonmywhat]

Thanks for the work, Newporttom.