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you would have to add up all the interest then but it would still come out close to a 3 year bond fund
the funds had a raising interest rate all these years to offset the declining nav .
the individual bonds don’t have a declining nav but they don’t have a rising rate either so pay outs are lower then current rates from back then
as long as someone holds long enough to match the fund duration value they will do about the same as buying an individual bond on that date
fidelity muni bond index has a duration of 6 years so that means held for six years would approximate buying a 5-6 year bond on that date
sometimes the funds do a bit better since they ride the yield curve and buy better , some times a bit worse , but any quality bond fund of any duration will always approximate the individual bond if held for the fund duration value if bought on that date
the only time it will vary a lot is in lower quality bonds where credit ratings can change too
Last edited by mathjak107; 12-26-2023 at 08:16 AM..
you would have to add up all the interest then but it would still come out close .
the funds had a raising interest rate to offset the declining nav .
the individual bonds don’t have a declining nav but they don’t have a rising rate either so pay outs are lower then current rates from back then
as long as someone holds long enough to match the fund duration value they will do about the same as buying an individual bond on that date
fidelity muni bond index has a duration of 6 years so that means held for six years would approximate buying a 5-6 year bond on that date
sometimes the funds do a bit better since they ride the yield curve and buy better , some times a bit worse , but any quality bond fund of any duration will always approximate the individual bond if held for the fund duration value if bought on that date
The net result is I had overall increases in 2021 (and before), 2022 and 2023 ... so talk to the hand
The net result is I had overall increases in 2021 (and before), 2022 and 2023 ... so talk to the hand
i will bet the same amount in that total market fund beat the same amount in your muni’s with interest since 10/2021 so here’s a hand you can talk to as well as your point is now pointless.
no one buys stocks for a year or two returns as an investor so it is a poor comparison to bring up one down year
those people are traders or speculators.
you don’t want to be in stocks , we get it and that’s fine . but a comparison to one year being down is really pushing it as a reason to try to convince us that fixed income was the way to go or to see some benefit of it
you were doing fine right up to trying to justify it by one down year …there are loads of reasons not everyone needs or wants equities but that was a pretty poor reason and comparison
i actually don’t need equities at this point either if i didn’t want them as our draw would be okay without them .
but i would never use the fact stocks were down in 2022 for my reason and say i was higher that year as now its likely behind again .
if anything i wouldnt want the volatility of equities if i didn’t want to use them anymore not because 2022 was a down year and for that moment in time i wasn’t down . its a silly comparison
Last edited by mathjak107; 12-26-2023 at 08:44 AM..
I hold bonds till they mature, so not that interested in the fidelity muni index or your calculations
A 'thinking outside the box' move --- you've taken risk off the table and you are investing for yourself and not to impress anyone else on these boards.
A 'thinking outside the box' move --- you've taken risk off the table and you are investing for yourself and not to impress anyone else on these boards.
that wasn’t the argument..no one needs a reason not to have equities .
but if you are going to try to justify it , the reason should at least make sense logically
A 'thinking outside the box' move --- you've taken risk off the table and you are investing for yourself and not to impress anyone else on these boards.
Thanks! I do like to think outside the box. Especially when there are so many in the box thinkers around
Before retirement I thought a different way. Being in retirement, I have changed my thinking. Where some feel that there will always be a higher high, I allow myself to think on the possibility of a last higher high
Thanks! I do like to think outside the box. Especially when there are so many in the box thinkers around
Before retirement I thought a different way. Being in retirement, I have changed my thinking. Where some feel that there will always be a higher high, I allow myself to think on the possibility of a last higher high
Assets rise in price, because more people are optimistic, than pessimistic. This sounds flighty and contrived, but that's how markets work. Intrinsic value should matter at some point, but when? And how do we even measure intrinsic value? In other words, why should gold have higher intrinsic value than iron?
Being not much of an out-of-the-box thinker, or any kind of thinker, I remain persuaded that Mankind will always value gold more than iron... and markets will, over sufficiently lengthy moving-average, always go up. That doesn't preclude considerable pain along the way! It's easy to feel buoyant and optimistic now. Next month, or next year, could be different. But next century? Unlikely.
But please tell me this: why has your personal life-cycle status, pre-retirement vs. in-retirement, much affected your thinking (and its relation to the box)?
Assets rise in price, because more people are optimistic, than pessimistic. This sounds flighty and contrived, but that's how markets work. Intrinsic value should matter at some point, but when? And how do we even measure intrinsic value? In other words, why should gold have higher intrinsic value than iron?
Being not much of an out-of-the-box thinker, or any kind of thinker, I remain persuaded that Mankind will always value gold more than iron... and markets will, over sufficiently lengthy moving-average, always go up. That doesn't preclude considerable pain along the way! It's easy to feel buoyant and optimistic now. Next month, or next year, could be different. But next century? Unlikely.
But please tell me this: why has your personal life-cycle status, pre-retirement vs. in-retirement, much affected your thinking (and its relation to the box)?
It's not just optimism. Productive assets tend to go up over the long term because the denominator (fiat dollars) devalues a little each year and because the asset generates some value for someone during the year which can yield profits / rents and then still exists afterward to do it again the next year, and sometimes the amount of value it can deliver the next year is more than this year and then you got a stew going.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dallasdean
I hold bonds till they mature, so not that interested in the fidelity muni index or your calculations
Just because you don't look at the current price until expiration does not mean it doesn't change along the way.
Anyway, to address the OP, 70% US stocks / 28.5% international / 1.5% cash and short duration treasuries. The big difference between what I talk about on C-D and my actual allocations is less macro positioning and more security selection; I talk about the fun stuff (individual stocks) more but a lot of what I hold in practice is in ETFs (although I do hold a bunch of individual stocks too). VOO (or equivalent) in 401Ks, VNQ in IRA, VXUS, VTI, SPGP, and some smaller factor ETF positions in taxable brokerage, but individual stock picking is interesting and evangelizing about how awesome SPGP (and now its new little brother GRPM) is is not. I used to own some corporate bonds as well but closed those positions in part because I saw the inflation burst coming ahead of time and in part because the best bonds got called.
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