[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by dmilll

Is anyone really surprised by these numbers? As the median price of homes in the Valley falls back in line with median incomes of course more people are going to buy. The high number of sales being REPO's would also seem to make sense. At this point I'm guessing banks are more willing to unload for less then the average homeowner who also has to lower the asking price or pull the home from the market altogether.

To anyone interested, I posted a link to a chart last month from the Joint Center for Housing Studies that lists the ratio between Median Income and Median Housing Cost from 1980 to 2006. I also noted that the median Clark County income is 60K (according to Fannie Mae/HUD).

The State of the Nation's Housing 2007 (http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2007/ - broken link)

Using the Chart...

Excluding the run-up years (2005-2006), it appears that the average ratio for Las Vegas (1980-2004) is 3.53. That translates to a median home price of approx $208K.

To those who think that 1980 is too far back, the ratio from 2000-2004 is 3.69. That translates to a median price of approx $212K.

Lastly, GVLAR Posted a Median Home price of $245K thru April 2008. Are we close seeing the bottom as others have mentioned above? Based on the numbers I think there is certainly more room for decline, but who really knows for sure...

Another thing to take into consideration is that as rents come into line with mortgage payments more people will get off of the fence as well. Using the condo's on Sky Point in 89131 as an example, a 3 bdrm 2 bth will run you $1000 a month or more in rent. However, with purchase prices around the $150K range, to purchase one of these condos with an FHA loan at 3% down ($4500) your payment including taxes, insurance, and MI (but not HOA) would be $1061. This is based on a rate of 6%.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by dude66

Are you SERIOUSLY trying to say there hasn't been a housing bubble?

HUH?!?!

Nope...it oozed air for almost two years...no bust. Then the lenders got in the act. They busted. The non-REPO market has continued an orderly downward trend...But the lenders went booom on the REPOs.

Am I unhappy about this? Nope. From an RE Agents view it was a good outcome. But I would point out that if the lenders had stayed with the comps it would have taken longer, come back slower and probably hit the owners a whole lot less. So the lenders basically socked it to their customers.

[banger]

As a master of stating the obvious.

Just as a way of explaining the difference in attitudes,

Homeowner buys his house for say $400,000, due to the downturn in the market he is forced to liquidate the home for $200,000.

As the homeowner sits in his now empty house with the pistol in his mouth, he decides his financial future is destroyed, and likely will never recover.

The Realtor sit in his office and says to himself, "well due to the downturn, I didn't make as much on the sale of that house as I should have... At least I turned a profit".

In short the agent gets a payday despite what happens to the homeowner, or the selling price of the house.

And that children concludes the first lesson in reality. Be warned however, lesson two is not as upbeat as lesson number one.

[ragabnh]

A friend of mine bought a 7500 sf house in a guard gated community in Southern Highland for $550,000. Swimming pool and highly upgraded, cost excess of $900,000 couple years ago. It was bought from the auction.

Just heard on public radio this morning that casino business is down 3%, Tropicana Owner is declaring bankrupcy, MGM Mirage and Caeser Ent. are not doing well.

Prices or RE will go down, just wait or buy from auctions.

[desertsun41]

Originally Posted by olecapt

GLVAR has posted the April single family number 1794 sold. That is up 29.9% year over year. And it is clearly going up another 15 or 20% in May.

Median price took a big hit. Reflects the higher proportion of REPOs as well as some smaller price drops. The pendings however would indicate that the bottom is close.

http://www.lasvegasrealtor.com/stats/Statindex.htm

You are much too positive I think but you have the stats.

Question: Are repos, bank auctions or foreclosures included in the total sales figures? How about FSBOs, are they included?

You just said 1794 total for April? Is that just MLS or all of the above is what I am asking.

What is telling you there should be up to another 360 units sold and closed for May?

Next question: I am hearing that if one is lucky enough to get a buyer, the lender is no longer using appraisals based on simular recent sales in the area. I hear they are using estimates of value based on what the same home is selling for at auction which of course is 50 cents +/- on the dollar.

Whats your take on this?

If this is true then there is no hope at all. Why bother trying to sell if it would never appraise out?

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by desertsun41

You are much too positive I think but you have the stats.

Question: Are repos, bank auctions or foreclosures included in the total sales figures? How about FSBOs, are they included?

You just said 1794 total for April? Is that just MLS or all of the above is what I am asking.

What is telling you there should be up to another 360 units sold and closed for May?

Next question: I am hearing that if one is lucky enough to get a buyer, the lender is no longer using appraisals based on simular recent sales in the area. I hear they are using estimates of value based on what the same home is selling for at auction which of course is 50 cents +/- on the dollar.

Whats your take on this?

If this is true then there is no hope at all. Why bother trying to sell if it would never appraise out?

As far as how properties are being appraised, appraisers are using the same approach and lenders are still accepting these appraisals. They may need to show more comps, and the lenders want to see listings now as well. I'm not sure that they can legally valuate a property in the manner that you described. Speculating on what a property "could" sell for at auction does not dictate market value. The guidelines regarding the comps are stricter, but appraisal standards remain and although often reviewed, the appraisals are being allowed although values may be cut.

[sheriff]

Originally Posted by ragabnh

A friend of mine bought a 7500 sf house in a guard gated community in Southern Highland for $550,000. Swimming pool and highly upgraded, cost excess of $900,000 couple years ago. It was bought from the auction.

Just heard on public radio this morning that casino business is down 3%, Tropicana Owner is declaring bankrupcy, MGM Mirage and Caeser Ent. are not doing well.

Prices or RE will go down, just wait or buy from auctions.

And just today the MGM says it may "RE-ORGANIZE".

[dude66]

May 4, 2008

'Dated' Vegas mansions flooding market
Some are only a few years old, but desert's wealthy buyers insist on the latest thing

"They blow up aging casinos in this town. Now, some are wondering what to do about yesterday's desert dream homes."

Article: 'Dated' Vegas mansions flooding market - Salt Lake Tribune

[AA702]

Originally Posted by sheriff

And just today the MGM says it may "RE-ORGANIZE".

Didn't the NJ state authorities pull the Tropicana's gaming license? This is the Tropicana in Atlantic City? Do you think the Trop will close down?

[gulfer]

Interesting read the last few days.

I like Daddys/// line of thought. Maybe because I was thinking same thing..but Daddy is much more experienced then I. What I thought the excellent point was regarding rent vs mortgage. I haven't followed the rent threads as they don't interest me.
More homes are selling there is no doubt about that. More then last year, yes. Why, because the majority of people in this country will buy a home. Many more then likely have wanted to buy for a couple years now...but with prices dropping like they have, they waited smartly. Now that home they could have bought for 450K is now 300K.
I don't think all houses will drop...but I do feel many still will in and all over Las Vegas.
Credit dried up because the banks actually are trying their best now to make sure you can and will repay your loan. WHAT A NOVEL CONCEPT!!!
This is good for the economy, it's good for people that buy the home, it's good for investors that buy these securities.
I feel if you pull that string and find that appraisers easy inflated prices (speculation, broker pressure, etc...) to make people money. All on the back of the home buyer. GREED at it's finest. Could easily find an appraiser who inflated numbers, then used them over and over, could easily find a bank that would GIVE the money away.
All made for a recipe for dissaster.
I think many you have been unfair to Ole Capt. I read his posts all the time. Is he optomistic, sure. Does he also say prices may still fall (YES), did he also say over a year ago to wait to buy (YES YES YES), etc... It's his business. He is not lying to you, he is saying houses are being bought more then before. Read his recent post where he says may be the bottom, but also says not sure about prices. It's a forum for opinions, he states his. Like it or not...it's information.