[lvoc]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

Nothing has changed and we didn't learn anything form the last bubble.
Same behavior today. Speculators once again are runing the show
in desert cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix and etc. Newly homeowners cheering for higher prices. Look at the listings today, mostly homes purchased one year or two years ago trying to unload them for much more then they are actually worth. Find the poor soul and sell him the "American Dream" of home ownership.

How many lives will we destroy this time when next recession hits and those people get stuck with overpriced homes and can't afford to pay the mortgage?

Nonsense. Of the 1049 resale single families sold in the last 30 days 130 were previously sold in the last year. That is a little over 12%. For two prior years it is 19%. So well over 80% of SFR sales were not flips. The number of sales here is actually not correct...as there is a delay in the data base. But the percentages should be right on.

[Kevin_nlv]

Originally Posted by lvoc

Nonsense. Of the 1049 resale single families sold in the last 30 days 130 were previously sold in the last year. That is a little over 12%. For two prior years it is 19%. So well over 80% of SFR sales were not flips. The number of sales here is actually not correct...as there is a delay in the data base. But the percentages should be right on.

[mod cut-- personal]
That report told us its all investor speculations out there.
No real jobs - no housing recovery. Plain and simple. Homeownership is at all time low.

[VegasVicsezhowdy]

Originally Posted by lvoc

Here is the new Report from The Nevada Dept of Business and Industry...

http://business.nv.gov/uploadedFiles...bility-v14.pdf

Interesting stuff. However exactly what a "D+" means is clear as mud. i am not sure they even establishes that an "A" is better than a "D+"

They also lead off with an extremely questionable number. The percentage of mortgages underwater is shown to increase from 65.9% to 67.9% from 4Q12 to 1Q13. That is in the face of a price increase of over 10%. That is of course virtually impossible. Probably indicates that the underwater number is extremely imprecise.

Housing affordability ratio is another strange one. They imply that one third of income for a mortgage payment is normal but then declare around half that to be a "D". Seems to imply that low prices for homes are bad.

The price increases were not evenly distributed. Last time I looked the eastside was not moving and I'm sure they are pretty deep in the fray percentage wise, right?

I would really like to hear what the Las Vegas REALTORS® are saying behind closed doors, do they expect prices to continue to escalate through the summer and into next winter? Care to opine?

[Kevin_nlv]

Maybe you should ask him why mortgage rates are exploding?
How long before we hit 5%?

[bledsoe3]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

I was using 15 years not 30 years mortgage.

So get a 30 yr loan. Or did you purposely use 15 yr to bolster your view of the RE market.
I could get a zero intrest loan from family and spread it over 40 yrs for a payment of $375. But I'm not going to use that as an example to make my side of the story look good.

[Willy702]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

You have been talking nonsense since 2004. You never saw housing bubble forming back then. You told your clients now is the best time to buy didn't you?
Why should anyone think now that you will see anything wrong with this market today?

That report told us its all investor speculations out there.
No real jobs - no housing recovery. Plain and simple. Homeownership is at all time low.

Awww, so sorry to hear the world is passing you by. Maybe in your alternate universe people do what you think they should do and sell you the house you think you deserve for the price you should pay for it. Unfortunately the rest of us live in reality.

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

Maybe you should ask him why mortgage rates are exploding?
How long before we hit 5%?

Actually went back down this week.. Reality is a pain.

I think it inevitable that rates will go up. I do not however believe a gentle and long term rate increase will drive home prices down. Maybe slow the price rise rate...which would be a good thing.

I certainly don't see 5% this year. Past that I see no sensible way to project.

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by VegasVicsezhowdy

The price increases were not evenly distributed. Last time I looked the eastside was not moving and I'm sure they are pretty deep in the fray percentage wise, right?

I would really like to hear what the Las Vegas REALTORS® are saying behind closed doors, do they expect prices to continue to escalate through the summer and into next winter? Care to opine?

Realtors don't discuss such things behind closed doors. Realtor is a product of the Brokers...not the agents. The Brokers are not motivated by pricing very much...they are by how much revenue they can extract per agent.

The agents don't talk either privately or publicly. I have always found it unbelievable that there is no Agent forum in Las Vegas. How can such an economically driven population avoid comparing notes on who pays what? Or who is nice to work for?

The successful all have their own prescription. One of the things I find amazing is how they try and sell it to other agents. If it is so good why don't you establish a brokerage and use your clever design to establish a dynasty? Oh well it is not that good...

[lvoc]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

That report told us its all investor speculations out there.
No real jobs - no housing recovery. Plain and simple. Homeownership is at all time low.

Actually I and my clients did quite well in 2004. And in 2005 and in 2006 and in 2007 and we ran into a buzz saw thereafter.

Note however I do not think it in my job statement to predict when the US mortgage industry decides to commit suicide. Rational people do not continue dropping prices as the inventory evaporates.

And these same people are driving prices up hard now. Would it not have been easier not to drive them down so far in the first place.
[mod cut-- off topicfor this thread]

[Kevin_nlv]

Realtors, Sellers, Appraisers, Banks … all make money when the can is kicked to the next sucker. Buyers at this point seem to be faced with difficult yields moving forward for the risk involved..Do i see markets flairing up if wage keeps being stagnant. I am no expert, but sounds wrong to me… no one gets more money at work, but they’ll just keep shelling out more for homes. Most likely not…