[bledsoe3]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

Add car payment, credit card debt, student loans, and etc. and your pool of qualified buyers is very minimal

I was using YOUR .33 number for qualification and came up with a resonable .28 that would be favorable when getting a mortgage. Once again you'll use any number or arguement you can come up with to benefit your position.

If you're going to throw out a number, don't argue when you don't like the results.

[SportyandMisty]

"Demography is Destiny", as the saying goes.

The ineluctable force of the Post-WWII Baby Boom cohort is that they are now starting to retire. A bit over 78 million people were born between 1946 & 1964. Over the course of the next 15 years, most of the surviving boomers will retire.

When they retire, many will want to sell their homes they've lived in for decades to capture the equity, and then retire to someplace else. This migration of retirees to places such as Las Vegas, Florida & Arizona is as reliable as the migration of ducks south for the winter.

Many of these retirees will just purchase their homes with the proceeds of selling their prior homes.

My point is to remind everyone that the market for housing here in LV has a component that isn't sensitive to interest rates or to mortgage payments.

[007 license to sell]

This article shed's light on a new housing indicator. Rather than just a number on a value this breaks down the different things that effect the housing recovery in and around the Vegas Valley.

New housing indicator in town - and it's different

[SIZE=3]New housing indicator in town - and it's different | Las Vegas Review-Journal[/SIZE]

Here is the link to the NV government website that has the data broken down for a clearer picture on the stability of housing in Nevada.

http://business.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/businessnvgov/content/News_Media/NVDBI-HousingStability-v14.pdf

[Kevin_nlv]

From your posted report;
"The share of homes sold to investors (cash buyers) remains elevated with nearly 6 in 10 closings taking place with cash buyers. Additionally, availability in the market has trended negatively and into an area of heightened concern. With approximately 1.3 months of effective inventory on the market, end-users are facing challenges competing with the current demand profile. This, combined with elevated foreclosure inventory, is putting upward pressure on prices that may not be sustainable."

Investor purchase share is at 59.4%, highest then ever before.
No comments.

[BBMW]

A good chunk, maybe a majority of those boomers will not have enough retirement savings to live on. They will need to harvest whatever equity they have to try and generate income. This suggests that a lot won't have the equity to buy for cash, and not have the income to get a mortgage. That means they'll be renting.

Originally Posted by SportyandMisty

"Demography is Destiny", as the saying goes.

The ineluctable force of the Post-WWII Baby Boom cohort is that they are now starting to retire. A bit over 78 million people were born between 1946 & 1964. Over the course of the next 15 years, most of the surviving boomers will retire.

When they retire, many will want to sell their homes they've lived in for decades to capture the equity, and then retire to someplace else. This migration of retirees to places such as Las Vegas, Florida & Arizona is as reliable as the migration of ducks south for the winter.

Many of these retirees will just purchase their homes with the proceeds of selling their prior homes.

My point is to remind everyone that the market for housing here in LV has a component that isn't sensitive to interest rates or to mortgage payments.

[observer53]

I am reopening the thread, BUT:

Going forward, posts that are not genuinely discussing the LV real estate market specifically, (and not just throwing in a reference to LV to make it a qualifying post) will be deleted,(or edited if on topic info can be saved that way) and infractions or warnings issued.

You are all free to discuss the national market or federal policy in the general forums.

Keep personal comments about one another or one another's opinions OUT of the thread. Hopefully you can all get back to meaningful, helpful discussions of the market in LV, as this thread used to be.

[SportyandMisty]

Originally Posted by BBMW

A good chunk, maybe a majority of those boomers will not have enough retirement savings to live on. They will need to harvest whatever equity they have to try and generate income. This suggests that a lot won't have the equity to buy for cash, and not have the income to get a mortgage. That means they'll be renting.

I certainly don't want to minimize the plight of older boomers who are in financial hardship. However, the data do not support the notion that they represent "...a good chunk, maybe a majority..."

I am not straying off-topic. The data are for all the USA, as that is the population from which future Las Vegas retirees are drawn. Some of these people with a lifetime of accumulated wealth will relocate to Las Vegas.

See the following chart, for example. It is a bit tough to read, but about 1/3 of all the wealth in the USA is in the hands of people 65 and older. In fact 2/3 of the wealth in the USA is in the hands of peopl 55 and older:



The following show data in tabular format. Again, tons of wealth in the hands of 55+ head of household families:

[BBMW]

I think your data backs me up. Even taking the best case number, that the mean net worth of boomers approaching retirement is $880K, is that enough to retire on, what other resources do they have, and how much of that is tied up in a primary residence? Assuming that includes retirement savings, with the meager returns available on income invesments, they're looking at living on 35K/year taxible + social security (if they're lucky.) Take out the cost of buying a house, and that drops by $5-6K/year (assuming a $150K house.)

I'm also REALLY skeptical about that mean number, unless it's skewed by a small number of hugely rich people. That median income of $180K looks more realistic.

[modhatter]

A good many recent retirees in their early sixties have worked for companies that provided pensions, and some even had 401K's. So the existing crop of retirees can be sitting very pretty with

Two social security check
Pension
401K Savings
And most likely a paid off house.

The next crop of 60+ retirees face the following:
No Pension
Phased out 401 K plans
Reduced and restructured Social Security
Higher cost Medicare with most likely less coverage.
In other words. Not a very pretty picture.

So migration to Nevada (if cost of living and houses are considered higher than other destinations) will no longer remain a retirement destination. This is the economic direction that citizens are being pushed in now. Nevada is experiencing the good crop now, but that will eventually change I think. (with the exception of very wealthy individuals who want to avoid state income tax)

So, I think the majority of "cash sales" here are by investors first, and retirees second.

[Laminate7]

-40K empty homes will come on the market in 2014-15 in vegas
-another 80K homes have people in them that have not made a mortgage payment in years and will be forclosed on in the next few years
-rising interest rates
-rental prices dropping

The best way to live in vegas is rent a house. period. crash is coming -