[Onlyliveonce]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

If mortgage rates did get to 8% maybe somebody would want to lend again.
6% or 7% is probably the rate they need to get in order to draw lenders willing to lend for 15y or 30y so that's where mortgage rates are headed.
Lending will simply dry up as home buyers see their purchasing power erode.

House prices will adjust accordingly.
Median home price needs to be about $120K.

What is the earliest date we will see your above predictions ?

[BBMW]

That's not predictable. If you could predict that, you could make millions.

Originally Posted by Onlyliveonce

What is the earliest date we will see your above predictions ?

[logline]

Kevin's thesis of higher interest rates = lower house prices is woefully flawed. There is a no automatic inverse correlation... history proves it:

[Onlyliveonce]

Originally Posted by BBMW

That's not predictable. If you could predict that, you could make millions.

I a well aware it is not predictable. I was trying to get the poster to commit to a hard date and then ask him if he would like to escrow an agreed amount. I will escrow up to 1 year from todays date for his minimal predictions of 6 % on a 15 year conventional and 120k average SFR in the greater Las Vegas Metro area. So how about it Kevin ? PM if interested in putting your money where your mouth is. Any other takers feel free to PM.

[Kevin_nlv]

Originally Posted by logline

Kevin's thesis of higher interest rates = lower house prices is woefully flawed. There is a no automatic inverse correlation... history proves it:

Sorry not convinced. People really weren't buying at record level rates and now they will somehow jump at higher rates and higher home prices cause they may miss out??????

Hello Mcfly a general housing bust happened less then 5 years ago..... people are still frightened.
With no wage growth and wage inflation housing prices will have to adjust accordingly.
Investors won't pay higher prices, some of those investors may actually panic and liquidate their inventory.
I don't think we will have to worry about this manipulated inventory very longer, once the borrower see's a $200 or more payment increase as a result of the recent rate increase.

[logline]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

Sorry not convinced. People really weren't buying at record level rates and now they will somehow jump at higher rates and higher home prices cause they may miss out??????

Hello Mcfly a general housing bust happened less then 5 years ago..... people are still frightened.
With no wage growth and wage inflation housing prices will have to adjust accordingly.
Investors won't pay higher prices, some of those investors may actually panic and liquidate their inventory.
I don't think we will have to worry about this manipulated inventory very longer, once the borrower see's a $200 or more payment increase as a result of the recent rate increase.

You're a funny guy. You just looked at a graph going back almost 40 years which disproves your entire thesis and say "Sorry not convinced"?

There are more variables at play than just interest rates when it comes to housing demand. Even with the recent jump in rates, home affordability is still extremely high. Ask any baby boomer what they paid for their mortgage rate in the 80s and ask them if it stopped them from buying... more importantly: ask them WHY it didn't stop them from buying. Your view is way too narrow to speak so confidently about housing as if you're some kind of expert. You and Vic talk out of both sides of your mouths and don't even recognize your own inconsistencies and inaccuracies.

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

"Hello Mcfly a general housing bust happened less then 5 years ago..... people are still frightened."

How can you say that with a straight face in light of what has happened over the last year???

[Kevin_nlv]

Originally Posted by BBMW

If mortgage rates got to 7%-ish, and prices adjusted accordingly, that would be the time to buy.

Mortgage rates may go double digits in the future. That would kill interest in housing and prices would have to come down 40% or more.

[Kevin_nlv]

Originally Posted by logline

You're a funny guy. You just looked at a graph going back almost 40 years which disproves your entire thesis and say "Sorry not convinced"?

There are more variables at play than just interest rates when it comes to housing demand. Ask any baby boomer what they paid for their mortgage rate in the 80s and ask them if it stopped them from buying... then ask them why it didn't stop them from buying. Your view is way too narrow to speak so confidently about housing as if you're some kind of expert. You and Vic talk out of both sides of your mouths and don't even recognize your own inconsistencies and inaccuracies.


How can you say that with a straight face in light of what has happened over the last year???

McGeek posted institutional data few days ago and it clearly said demand in Las Vegas has been driven by investors not end buyers.
What part don't you get it?
Baby boomers paid low housing prices not inflated housing prices because of artificially low mortgage rates.

I know, I know your phony equity is about to disappear again, heck you may end up underwater again.
Funny thing how that works

[logline]

Originally Posted by Kevin_nlv

McGeek posted institutional data few days ago and it clearly said demand in Las Vegas has been driven by investors not end buyers.
What part don't you get it?

I know, I know you phony equity is about to disappear again, heck you may end up underwater again.
Funny thing how that works

So now you're saying that institutional investors are overpaying for houses because they like to buy high and sell low... got it. Nice thesis there.

You still haven't answered the question: why did people buy houses in the early 80's when mortgage rates were over 15%????

[Kevin_nlv]

Originally Posted by logline

So now you're saying that institutional investors are overpaying for houses because they like to buy high and sell low... got it. Nice thesis there.

You still haven't answered the question: why did people buy houses in the early 80's when mortgage rates were over 15%????

I actually adjusted my post above, people paid higher interest rates in early 80's because prices were LOW and they weren't inflated due to artificially low interest rates.

Many investors will bail out and disappear quckly once they see flipping homes for higher price due to low interest rates is not profitable anymore, because guess what interest rates are not only rising today......they are EXPLODING!!!!