[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by Mzxl

Healthy? You must be out of your mind. I wonder if you Real Estate Agents with few weeks of training even know what healthy market is?
Do you people even have any idea what your industry and your lobby has done to this country? As we have all witnessed by now inflating financial markets and real estate doesn't equal to real economic growth.

And why would anyone want to go back to 2006 prices? Americans can't afford to buy those inflated homes already.

This just got reported today;
Mon Feb 27, 2017 | 10:03 AM EST
U.S. pending home sales fall to lowest level in a year

Against expectations of a 0.6% rise, pending home sales in January plunged 2.8% MoM - the biggest drop since May.
The West - the most expensive region - saw the biggest decline, down 10.3% MoM with The Midwest also tumbling 5.2% MoM.

As mortgage rates have soared since the election (and mortgage applications tumbled), affordability has become a major issue according to NAR with pending home sales at the lowest in a year.

The LV market is actually pretty strange right now. We have flat or slowly rising prices with low inventory.

The market still has some strange properties. The gap between new build and resale is way too wide. You basically take a 10 or 15% hit as you close a new house. Likewise there is an unstuck between the resale prices and the replacement cost. Normally houses sell at or above their replacement costs. But in Vegas at the moment the resale prices on homes are a bit below the replacement cost. In fact you need to be careful with your home owners policy. The prices in Las Vegas are also below the rather low trend line of the home sales price before 2000. So there is a case that homes are still under valued.

Ratios of median prices to median income still indicate LV is a reasonably affordable market.

[Tek_Freek]

Originally Posted by Cold Warrior

If that were true the prices would be lower.

LOL. Houses on our street are so over priced that only an idiot would buy one.

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by Tek_Freek

LOL. Houses on our street are so over priced that only an idiot would buy one.

Some truth to that. A set of big and expensive houses with views etc have been on the market for over a year. But then again the two corner houses on Lauren over the softball field sat there for over a year and then sold at close to an outrageous list. On the other hand inventory is as low as we have seen it in 17 years of selling in Sun City Summerlin. Put up a nice cherry 280K house and it is gone in a week. Just watched an 1800 SF house on a standard lot go for $355,000. The flipper bought it 3 months ago for $245,000.

So pricing is too high but there is very limited stock to sell...a pain in the butt.

[atruji79]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

The LV market is actually pretty strange right now. We have flat or slowly rising prices with low inventory.

The market still has some strange properties. The gap between new build and resale is way too wide. You basically take a 10 or 15% hit as you close a new house. Likewise there is an unstuck between the resale prices and the replacement cost. Normally houses sell at or above their replacement costs. But in Vegas at the moment the resale prices on homes are a bit below the replacement cost. In fact you need to be careful with your home owners policy. The prices in Las Vegas are also below the rather low trend line of the home sales price before 2000. So there is a case that homes are still under valued.

Ratios of median prices to median income still indicate LV is a reasonably affordable market.

I've been following the market for a year. In the henderson area, it's hard to believe that the house prices are as low as 2000. Most of the houses I'm looking at/coming on seem to be closer to their 2006 numbers at times. I literally saw a flipped house sell in November and the person who bought it turn around and sell it for a $50,000 two weeks ago!

There definitely seems to be houses that are sitting on the market for quite a while. I've also seen people putting houses on at their 2006 price, and it looks like the house hasn't been touched. I don't know if all buyers are like me, but I'm not about to spend that much on something that doesn't deserve it.

[Tek_Freek]

List well over $770k. Sell at +-530K 1 1/2 years later. One of them lost rental fees over that time. Another is just sitting there.

[crabtrees]

As a buyer, I've been watching the housing market in the valley for almost a year (generally the Green Valley/Seven Hills area of Henderson). Prices have gone up since last summer for sure, but have seemed to level out for the moment. I'm noticing an increased number of prices reductions actually. We'll see how things go heading into the spring/summer, but with interest rates rising I'd imagine the prices would have to drop a little to keep the monthly payments where they currently stand. I'm used to the California home market so it blows me away to see houses in the valley stay on the market for a year. I'm used to property closing escrow 45 days max after being listed.

The inventory is also shrinking, specifically the inventory of updated homes. At least right now, seems like anything under $400k is completely original, and a large percent of the homes over $400k are still in original condition with maybe newer kitchen countertops. In general, $400k will get you a pool home in original condition, or an updated home with no pool. This is in Green Valley.

[LinkFromSoCal]

Speaking of Green Valley, I bought my condo there (89074) for $118k in August of 2015. During escrow, it appraised for $120k.

Now, the condo is being valued online (yeah, dubious unreliable online valuations) for $138k, and a couple of comparable sales have recently closed for around $135k. So yeah, even on the cheaper end of things, it seems that prices have increased pretty noticeably, at least in comparatively nicer parts of town.

[crabtrees]

Do you think appraisals are a joke? I feel like they will always come in at whatever the purchase price was, and in this market banks actually want them to appraise for as much as they can so that they can give out bigger loans and make more interest over the loan.

Very recently I was interested in a new home that purchased in Green Valley for $300k in May 2016 (10 months ago)...the home was 3000sqft, 5bd, 3bth, 8000sqft lot. The buyer was a flipper. He probably spent $80,000 completely gutting the interior and updating the entire interior of the home (exterior/yard/HVAC not touched). Once the updating was completed about 6 months later (November 2016) it was listed and eventually sold for $420k. It appraised for exactly that amount even though the comps in the area were no higher than $370k. Granted, the homes in the area being sold were generally in original early 1990's condition. Some had pools though. The realtor I spoke to couldn't believe the home appraised for the $420k selling price, but it did. I recall the realtor saying something like he hopes the buyer is looking for their forever house and not worried about equity because he felt the house was going to be a losing investment, regardless of how nice the interior was basically due to the neighborhood it was located in. He didn't feel like the neighborhood would ever justify home prices that high.

[lvmensch]

It gets complicated. We presently have 3 different transactions going on that run into exactly that problem. They involve the value of houses that are at or above the top pricing in their market niche. One is a home in Sun City where we represent the buyer. The house is very well priced though it is not updated and our buyer faces a large bill to do so. The house has an unusually great location and has attracted what we suspect are flippers as alternate buyers. And the question is how high should one go knowing that the total of purchase price and updating costs will push the investment in the home way past the upper level for the model in Sun City. The total could well exceed the highest price ever paid for the model. Our buyer wants an appraisal to establish base value and that will likely fly driven by the location. But after the upgrades?

Another is an absolutely lovely home of 3,000SF just north of Sun City Summerlin. It is an exquisite home. But it is in a nice tract but has no HOA and the neighborhood is mildly unpolished. The same house in the next big tract west would run $50,000 more. So list well above the highest price ever achieved in the tract? Or try and talk to owner down to the tract upper bound? This house would be a great example of the appraisal problem. If you pick the comps within the neighborhood (If any are available) it will not appraise more than a few thousand dollars above the neighborhood peak. But if you pick the comps in the neighborhood to the west or the equestrian properties to the north it will appraise perhaps $50,000 higher than any sale in the neighborhood.

The third is in Sun City and again is a singular nice home. This one is actually an art work. But it was bought at the peak of the market and expanded at considerable expense. It has unique features but is also located on a site having significant flaws. So where to list? Owner wants a price that would exceed that of equivalent sized homes located on premium view or golf course lots. Now it is unlikely it will sell at that high a price and she will eventually have to come down and settle for something less but again what about an appraisal? She has been warned that an appraisal anywhere near her pricing will require the appraiser to really get creative on the comps or it will not appraise. Actually the hope will be that the appraiser does not figure out what model it actually is with the expansion and compares it to other similar in size to the final version.

[foundapeanut]

^^^^location, location location.

Originally Posted by ddrhazy

I think the market is healthy right now. I don't think it's good to have double digit appreciation year after year, that's not sustainable. Vegas has not yet hit the values we saw in 2006 and I think we are going to get there by around 2022. If you're waiting for prices to come down, probably not going to happen but who knows. Our distressed inventory is less than 9% and that's going to continue to drop.

Depends on where you live. My neighbor last year paid $100,000 more for her house than any house ever sold in our HOA including 2005/06. I here the same for other areas in upper south Summerlin.

Some one in here is trying for that same price. Won't get it as it doesn't have the super premier lots with all the bells and whistles.