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PinkString I just checked the NextDoor App. Costco on Decatur has a palette of paper towels and TP at 10am. Winco near there also had TP this morning if you need any. They took pictures. Also Staples on 5th has TP and hand sanitizer. Someone else posted an hour ago there's paper towels at the dollar tree and rubbing alcohol at Target. Been following NextDoor for the neighborhood tips.
We ended up stopping at Costco around 4 p.m. and found some things: Toilet paper, paper towels and bottled water, limit 5, but we bought 4. I know why it finally worked. I was wearing my camo blouse today. Whenever I wear it, and go hunting for these types of items, it usually lets me find them. The other times I was wearing normal boring clothes.
Since the governor is not providing us with the transparency he promised, and I am unable to find accurate, current counts of hospitalizations and ICU utilization, perhaps your husband can provide us with an up-to-date accounting of current hospitalizations and ICU utilization where he works as well as any other hospitals with which he is familiar. I really do not find the cumulative case count relevant given that SNHD already estimates that over 44% of those people have recovered. Deaths are a lagging indicator. We all were told that the goal of mitigation was to bend the curve, not eliminate the virus, which is not going to happen. I believe if the governor and the SNHD were providing us with the hospital data referenced above along with all of the demographic data being provided by states like New York and New Jersey, it would be readily apparent that the lockdown for those under 55 and without underlying health conditions should end immediately.
By the way, per today's WHO situation report, new cases and deaths were down yet again in Sweden. I am sure some of you do not want to hear that since it rebuts the narrative that total lockdowns are a necessity, but I am glad to see Sweden continues to follow through with their strategy despite the good amount of negative press from the media and politicians in other countries.
Ironically, history is probably going to look at that approach a lot more fondly. The rampant violation of the U.S. Constitution and our civil rights is getting out of control. I could understand and appreciate the response at first, I was "on board" so to speak, not some crazy conspiracy nut. But then the facts -- as they are wont to do -- kept coming out and I reserve the right to change my mind as facts change. Garbage in, garbage out, so to speak. The original mortality rate was sold to us as 2-3% and "could be higher," then it was 2-3% but might be a bit lower, who knows. Then last week it was reported as 0.67% based on a comprehensive study of the facts. Then a few days ago a German study arrived at 0.37% -- not 20-30x as dangerous as the flu as so many were saying, but more like 3.5x the flu. Once again, I said it before, I'll say it again, it's a strong flu. For some people, it's nothing compared to the flu. Like, literally nothing, zero symptoms, nothing at all happens. For others, it's much worse than the flu and they die. The people who called it a strong flu before were ridiculed and told they were idiots who were anti-science. Turns out the science, in the end, proved them more right than wrong.
I don't believe a virus that kills 0.37% of the people it infects should shutter a lemonade stand, let alone a country or the world. I think the responses have been downright pathetic and I don't care if 10,000 Americans are saved, it's a disgrace to the millions who died to protect our freedoms and our rights as Americans that a minor health crisis pops up and suddenly hundreds of years of freedom is taken away in the blink of an eye. The governor of Rhode Island sent ARMED and uniformed national guard soldiers -- that's what they are -- door to door to try to find New Yorkers and kick them out of the state, which is a violation of so many constitutional rights it's unbelievable. I'd take that guy out and throw him into the Atlantic if I had any say over it. State after state issuing "stay at home" orders without any legal standing to do so. There hasn't been martial law declared anywhere, they don't have any legal basis for these orders. They are acting like little dictators, hungry for power, when a state governor has about the power of a strong fart.
My best friend in a police department in OR said his chief told them absolutely no fines or stops because of stay at home orders, they're aware it's a civil rights violation and don't want the department getting sued. California seems totally unaware of the irony of calling Trump a Nazi constantly and acting like he's "the end" of America, yet at the same time acting just like Nazi Germany in just about every way except for executing Jews. They don't tolerate freedom of speech, of assembly, of commerce, and now of movement. There is joke after joke with these states, both republican and democrat governors, so it's not a partisan thing. But it is a pathetic thing and history will judge the entire pandemic as one giant overreaction that was far worse than the virus it was meant to combat. I think I read an Onion piece about this panic once: "Old People Suddenly Realize They Might Die." Wow, it's so shocking a virus can kill old people, imagine that? It's almost like... like people don't live forever, and when you're really old, you could die of just about anything.
Open everything back up and let people do what they decide is safe, for them and their families, or face the economic consequences of a much worse recession or depression than we're already going to have. This joke was funny for a few weeks, now it has become pathetic that people WANT to bury their heads in the sand and say, "YoU aReN't TakInG tHiS sErIoUsLy!!1!11!!1111" No, YOU aren't taking this seriously! The virus isn't the thing to be taken seriously, the failing economy is.
[quote=I don't believe a virus that kills 0.37% of the people it infects should shutter a lemonade stand, let alone a country or the world. [/QUOTE]
But this question is about Las Vegas - and as of this morning, Nevada overall is at 3.99% and Clark County is at 4.13% (according to Johns Hopkins University). I agree it is overblown - but what do you think that rate would be if the strip were open? And what ratio of death:infected is the tipping point to just tell people to stay home for a few weeks?
Ironically, history is probably going to look at that approach a lot more fondly. The rampant violation of the U.S. Constitution and our civil rights is getting out of control. I could understand and appreciate the response at first, I was "on board" so to speak, not some crazy conspiracy nut. But then the facts -- as they are wont to do -- kept coming out and I reserve the right to change my mind as facts change. Garbage in, garbage out, so to speak. The original mortality rate was sold to us as 2-3% and "could be higher," then it was 2-3% but might be a bit lower, who knows. Then last week it was reported as 0.67% based on a comprehensive study of the facts. Then a few days ago a German study arrived at 0.37% -- not 20-30x as dangerous as the flu as so many were saying, but more like 3.5x the flu. Once again, I said it before, I'll say it again, it's a strong flu. For some people, it's nothing compared to the flu. Like, literally nothing, zero symptoms, nothing at all happens. For others, it's much worse than the flu and they die. The people who called it a strong flu before were ridiculed and told they were idiots who were anti-science. Turns out the science, in the end, proved them more right than wrong.
I don't believe a virus that kills 0.37% of the people it infects should shutter a lemonade stand, let alone a country or the world. I think the responses have been downright pathetic and I don't care if 10,000 Americans are saved, it's a disgrace to the millions who died to protect our freedoms and our rights as Americans that a minor health crisis pops up and suddenly hundreds of years of freedom is taken away in the blink of an eye. The governor of Rhode Island sent ARMED and uniformed national guard soldiers -- that's what they are -- door to door to try to find New Yorkers and kick them out of the state, which is a violation of so many constitutional rights it's unbelievable. I'd take that guy out and throw him into the Atlantic if I had any say over it. State after state issuing "stay at home" orders without any legal standing to do so. There hasn't been martial law declared anywhere, they don't have any legal basis for these orders. They are acting like little dictators, hungry for power, when a state governor has about the power of a strong fart.
My best friend in a police department in OR said his chief told them absolutely no fines or stops because of stay at home orders, they're aware it's a civil rights violation and don't want the department getting sued. California seems totally unaware of the irony of calling Trump a Nazi constantly and acting like he's "the end" of America, yet at the same time acting just like Nazi Germany in just about every way except for executing Jews. They don't tolerate freedom of speech, of assembly, of commerce, and now of movement. There is joke after joke with these states, both republican and democrat governors, so it's not a partisan thing. But it is a pathetic thing and history will judge the entire pandemic as one giant overreaction that was far worse than the virus it was meant to combat. I think I read an Onion piece about this panic once: "Old People Suddenly Realize They Might Die." Wow, it's so shocking a virus can kill old people, imagine that? It's almost like... like people don't live forever, and when you're really old, you could die of just about anything.
Open everything back up and let people do what they decide is safe, for them and their families, or face the economic consequences of a much worse recession or depression than we're already going to have. This joke was funny for a few weeks, now it has become pathetic that people WANT to bury their heads in the sand and say, "YoU aReN't TakInG tHiS sErIoUsLy!!1!11!!1111" No, YOU aren't taking this seriously! The virus isn't the thing to be taken seriously, the failing economy is.
This is some of the most intelligent and useful commentary that I have seen about this matter. Common sense is still out there in some quarters, which is a very good thing. It's just not as loud as the dummies are.
By the way, per today's WHO situation report, new cases and deaths were down yet again in Sweden. I am sure some of you do not want to hear that since it rebuts the narrative that total lockdowns are a necessity, but I am glad to see Sweden continues to follow through with their strategy despite the good amount of negative press from the media and politicians in other countries.
Stefan Lofven, Sweden's prime minister, said today that after taking a 'flexible' approach to restricting movements within its borders, the country's coronavirus measures were 'not good enough'.
Meanwhile denmark next door is already showing signs of recovery and ending the lockdown.
However what I have read, and what does make sense, is that the countries that have had a lockdown which they are easing face the possibility of a secondary spike, which is something sweden probably doesnt have to worry about. However it does seem that swedens attempt at holding onto normality has failed.
Meanwhile denmark next door is already showing signs of recovery and ending the lockdown.
However what I have read, and what does make sense, is that the countries that have had a lockdown which they are easing face the possibility of a secondary spike, which is something sweden probably doesnt have to worry about. However it does seem that swedens attempt at holding onto normality has failed.
Nice try. First, none of the articles states that any additional steps were taken; it mentions the possibility. Second, it is interesting to note that all of your sources are British; given the British were going to follow the Swedes and then buckled and changed course, all of these articles sound like sour grapes.
Here in article from an American newspaper published yesterday stating the opposite:
Another nice try. Note the use of the safe word "could" instead of being definitive and stating that it "is" backfiring. I have seen no news report where it states Sweden has officially changed course on what they are doing. I understand that disappoints people like you who see this as one giant medical experiment where you seem to enjoy the drama and have no issue with all individuals and the majority of businesses being locked down and ruined financially. Doctors have always struck me as some of the most risk averse people, and while they certainly should provide input, they absolutely should not be making the final call on ending this ridiculous lockdown.
Wow! You really are grasping at straws now. Unfortunately, this article is over a week old. If you have a source from the last 24 hours, please provide it. Thank you.
Location: In the middle of nowhere... and enjoying it
1,937 posts, read 823,949 times
Reputation: 1799
Quote:
Originally Posted by esas
But this question is about Las Vegas - and as of this morning, Nevada overall is at 3.99% and Clark County is at 4.13% (according to Johns Hopkins University). I agree it is overblown - but what do you think that rate would be if the strip were open? And what ratio of death:infected is the tipping point to just tell people to stay home for a few weeks?
The 3.99% and the 4.13% figures are based on known wuflu numbers. How many Nevadans would test positive if all were given the test, and then what would the mortality rate really be?
I don't believe a virus that kills 0.37% of the people it infects should shutter a lemonade stand, let alone a country or the world.
You seem to be arguing for either:
data-based decision making, or
principle-based decision making.
The problem with data-based decision making right now is the data are very, very dirty; the data are highly suspect; the data are not reliable; the data quality vary by county and by health district, etc It is a bit like driving a car in the dark on a lonely mountain road with no street lights, no headlights, and you left your eyeglasses at home.
The problem with principle-based decision making is an asymmetric loss function. Err on one side and you have economic disaster, which you point out. Err on the other side and you have, well, something like the following:
In Ecuador bodies are rotting on the street. Some families abandoning their loved ones because there's no way to bury them. Fights are even breaking out in lines to get into a cemetery, in hospitals and random warehouses are becoming impromptu morgues.
Fair warning: some of these images are disturbing.
Open everything back up and let people do what they decide is safe
The main problem with this is two-fold:
1) In general, the public is ill-prepared to make that judgment about what is safe. The public does not have access to data. The public isn't very intelligent - just look at people inside your typical DMV. And the public is poorly educated. Inside the DMV, how many people do you think can even spell "exponential" let alone define it? How many can think exponentially rather than merely linearly?
2) There are huge negative economic externalities. Person A's poor behaviour & decision impacts Person B & Person C and others without Person A bearing any cost of that bad decision. For example, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/12/u...rspreader.html. You can't sue people who spread the virus.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonathanLB
The virus isn't the thing to be taken seriously, the failing economy is.
BOTH are to be taken seriously. I disagree with your characterization that the virus is like a bad flu, but we both realize I won't change you mind on that, and you won't change mine.
At the same time the health of the economy must absolutely be restored, which of course is your primary point and objective.
*****
WHAT DO WE DO NOW?
Staying the course has huge bad side effects.
Each and every possible course of action has huge bad side effects.
It's the Kobayashi Maru.
IF we could get widespread testing both for the virus and for antibodies (assuming antibodies provide protection)
IF we could get reliable results from testing rapidly
IF we had a simple signaling mechanism so you could assess the risk of interacting with me and vice-versa
and probably some other conditions, then we ought to be able to open things up rapidly. Sadly, we can't get those right away.
Decision making in the face of risk and uncertainty is difficult in the best of times, and these are not the best of times.
The head of the St. Louis Federal Reserve recently said the shutdown is costing the US Economy ~ $25 Billion per day. That certainly would buy a lot of testing capacity, and I for one wonder why none of the stimulus packages have allocated, say, $100 Billion on incremental testing capacity.
Last edited by RationalExpectations; 04-14-2020 at 10:53 AM..
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The other times I was wearing normal boring clothes.
