[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by luckydogg

You might be different, but I can't think of any market where I didn't hear a real estate agent say it wasn't an excellent time to buy or sell a home. Never one time have I heard one say it's not a good time to buy or sell a home, and do nothing. Why would they, their job is to sell so they make money.

It's funny I was just looking up Desert Shores on CD. I happened upon this thread:
https://www.city-data.com/forum/las-...n-ish-any.html

Where LVMensch said the following which is nice to see he did point out it might not be a great time to buy and this was late 2019 before COVID:

"Actlually it is not the perfect time to buy. That was 3 or 45 years ago. But it also beats the heck out of anything we can see coming. The driver is interest rates. Right now you can get 4% or so...that is not likely to last...."

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by longviewJoe

It's funny I was just looking up Desert Shores on CD. I happened upon this thread:
https://www.city-data.com/forum/las-...n-ish-any.html

Where LVMensch said the following which is nice to see he did point out it might not be a great time to buy and this was late 2019 before COVID:

"Actlually it is not the perfect time to buy. That was 3 or 45 years ago. But it also beats the heck out of anything we can see coming. The driver is interest rates. Right now you can get 4% or so...that is not likely to last...."

I'm reading that as saying it's a good time to buy?

Am I missing something here?

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by longviewJoe

"Actlually it is not the perfect time to buy. That was 3 or 45 years ago. But it also beats the heck out of anything we can see coming. The driver is interest rates. Right now you can get 4% or so...that is not likely to last...."

Colonic glossolalia with no context. The effect is to stupify the arguees into a state of silent wonderment.
ESM

[longviewJoe]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

I'm reading that as saying it's a good time to buy?

Am I missing something here?

I liked that he said, "Actlually it is not the perfect time to buy."

He acknowledged it's NOT perfect. A lot of Realtors will never give a hint of anything other than "it's a great time to buy.... real estate goes up historically... it's always a smart investment...."

[eventusstultorummagister]

If the residential real estate market is so sound, why did mortgage-backed securities make up 84% of the Fed’s recent buying spree?

https://www.ccn.com/did-the-fed-just...-market-crash/

"The Federal Reserve bought an unprecedented amount of mortgage-backed securities last week. Otavio Costa, a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, noted that the housing market accounted for 84% of the central bank’s most recent stimulus."

[eventusstultorummagister]

Las Vegas new mortgage headwinds:

1. 700+ credit score
2. 20% down
3. Legitimate tax returns/Bank statements

40 million out of work
If you HAVE to sell your house and there is NO ONE to buy it then what is it actually worth?
Price discovery coming soon to a neighborhood near you...
GOOD LUCK

[lvmensch]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

Colonic glossolalia with no context. The effect is to stupify the arguees into a state of silent wonderment.
ESM

Always with the BS.

At the present the interest rates are significantly better than in that prior thread. However there is much opinion in the industry and economic circles that a substantial recession may occur and that RE may take a hit.

On the other side there is low inventory and mostly stable pricing at the moment. There is a pretty good likelihood it will not improve much in the next year. So it may be a better time to sell than it will be later. One could also chose to rent but for the nicer houses the rent market may get badly hit if things go bad.

So clearly not the best time to be selling but it may be better than what is coming at us.

[ddrhazy]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

Las Vegas new mortgage headwinds:

1. 700+ credit score
2. 25% down
3. Legitimate tax returns/Bank statements

40 million out of work
If you HAVE to sell your house and there is NO ONE to buy it then what is it actually worth?
Price discovery coming soon to a neighborhood near you...
GOOD LUCK

I heard some banks were ratcheting up their requirements to 20% downpayment, whether that became an industry standard going forward is something else.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

However there is much opinion in the industry and economic circles that a substantial recession may occur and that RE may take a hit.

Please refer to post #285 (above)

An acquaintance who was a CMBS/Commercial Mortgage Lender for 20+ years told me:

All the mortgage loan servicers have to continue paying the Investors (big hedge funds, insurance companies, pension funds, other countries, etc.) who buy the MBS Bonds when the Homeowners are defaulting and in forbearance on their loans. If the Homeowner doesn't pay, the interest to the investor on the MBS Bond is still due. The Bonds are owned in a Trust, they tranche out AAA, AA, A, BBB+, BBB, BB, etc. Each tranche owns a slice of the bonds and is priced on the likelihood of that piece of the bond defaulting. The AAA tranche is the best, so that one is the least likely to default. The UNRATED (Junk Bond and below) pieces are likely to default, so they may be yielding 15% to reflect the risk. The servicers have to continue to please the Bondholders (they don't care about the homeowners) and if they don't have the money to pay the bondholders their interest, then each bond tranche that is getting impacted is making the call on what to do with the underlying collateral until that bond tranche is eliminated. When the market drops and the homeowners start defaulting, it eats away at these bonds and the tranches GET ELIMINATED through defaults. The investors GET WIPED OUT and the Bondholders complain to the gov't for a BAIL OUT. The BONDS, because the market dropped, are now ILLIQUID. They can't be sold. There is no market for them. Many tranches are wiped out. There is NO MARKET.

So that means, without a market, then there can be NO FINANCING of houses. The Liquidity has dried up! No banks can make loans because there is no market to buy the bonds to offload their balance sheets. Prices should be dropping like crazy but the Fed has actually bought JUNK BONDS because nobody else was buying and the market would have collapsed! NEVER HAVE THEY DONE THIS BEFORE!!!

What the Fed is doing is setting the price (unfairly) and buying the junk bonds, and setting the price of the bottom of the market. They have effectively BAILED OUT the bondholders, billionaire hedge fund holders, insurance, pensions, etc. If a bond was $100,000,000 but couldn't be sold for $50,000,000, then the bondholders/mortgage REITs, etc. have to mark-to-market down to $50,000,000 which erases all their NET WORTH/CAPITAL, effectively making all these investors, mortgage REITs, etc. insolvent/bankrupt.

The Fed effectively came in and bought them at $75,000,000 (which mitigates their loss substantially). There is no price discovery mechanism because the bottom of the market was not set by the market, but by the Fed itself. These IDIOTS in this business model do this every 10 years or so, chasing yield and chasing fees and run only with the economy, and they do not manage their risk. They are in a risky business model. They should not be getting our tax money for bail outs. Prices should be dropping like crazy because there should be no loans available in the market. The FED is providing the liquidity and bottom of the market. What would normally be happening is for interest rates to RISE and the price of homes should fall in order to deflate the bubble that false low interest rates created.

The Federal Reserve is propping up the housing market - no matter what the consequences.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by ddrhazy

I heard some banks were ratcheting up their requirements to 20% downpayment, whether that became an industry standard going forward is something else.

You are correct. The 25% figure I posted was a typo.

At the present time, borrowers can still get a Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loan at 97% loan-to-value. There are some big banks that are requiring 20% down, however, there are many lenders that still only require 3% down (which is a special Fannie Mae program I believe, which only requires a min. 680 FICO score).