[08grad]

Originally Posted by dontbelievehim

Meat industry - hurting
Retail/restaurants - hurting

Doubt it. Every time I go to a grocery store they're out of fresh Chicken and Beef.

Grocery stores are making bank right now because their competition was forced to close down.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by lvmensch

But to project a long term decline over short term stress? Makes no sense. As the economy recovers over the next 3 or 4 months I expect it will climb toward prior levels. And then some.

Extend and Pretend 2.0

The government won't allow a repeat of the 2008 foreclosure crisis, as a result, all federally backed mortgages have some new requirements from HUD (as of 4/17). The loan servicer is now required to offer struggling borrowers a partial claim (junior loan secured by the property) at zero interest. No payments are due on the COVID-19 Standalone Partial Claim until the payoff, maturity or acceleration of the insured mortgage, including the sale of the property or at refinancing, or the termination of FHA insurance on the mortgage.

Loans will be given a waiver on payments and streamline refinanced into a lower interest rate. The FED plans on minting trillion dollar coins (FED coin) and buying mortgage backed securities in order to artificially lower rates... until they can't.

THE FED IS THE HOUSING MARKET (period)

[Cold Warrior]

The FED plans on minting trillion dollar coins (FED coin)

The FED neither mints coins nor prints dollars.

[eventusstultorummagister]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsvXosZMXww


In the crash of 2008, foreclosures did not begin until 2009, then it took another 3 years for prices to hit bottom.

[strato58]

Anyone in the RE business should know these cycles take years to shake out.

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by eventusstultorummagister

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsvXosZMXww

In the crash of 2008, foreclosures did not begin until 2009, then it took another 3 years for prices to hit bottom.

Those FHA loan forebearances should add some stability, but won't be enough in the grand scheme of things

I'm surprised at how quickly things are starting to turn this time, it's not reflected in the median sales price yet, but give it a few months.

[OmegaSupreme]

Originally Posted by strato58

Anyone in the RE business should know these cycles take years to shake out.

Everyone except for realtors and taxi drivers. It's usually a safe bet to do the opposite of what they tell you. Take Bitcoin for example.

[MaryoVilla]

hahahahahah this guy is awesome...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZLV3tYxsjg


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRz9UyrncMc

so much videos and so much truth about Vegas lol...

[Mike from back east]

When we had a house built in COLO SPGS in 2005 our realtor wouldn't even show us homes by Richmond American.

These issues of poor workmanship were prevalent in the housing bubble of 2004-2007 when anyone who could hold a hammer could find work in construction.

Then, as now, we had a huge tax cut that put money into the hands of people with no better place to put that money to work than in the housing market, thus housing bubbles with massive overbuilding and poor quality as skilled labor was in short supply.

[JonathanLB]

Originally Posted by OmegaSupreme

Looks like realtors and everyone associated with them are in the denial stage. I can't fathom a scenario where house prices don't fall 10% within the next year.

Yeah personally I can’t see how there wouldn’t be some sort of correction in that territory. Not saying it’ll last, but typically any recession brings with it downward pressure on prices across many industries. With the Vegas tourist market presumably something that will take 18 months (maybe?) to return to pre-pandemic levels, it’s hard to see how there wouldn’t be a drop in home values. Nothing enormous, but yeah a 10-15% decline wouldn’t be disastrous.