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Old 04-15-2020, 09:52 AM
 
Location: So Ca
26,735 posts, read 26,820,948 times
Reputation: 24795

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Quote:
Originally Posted by nmnita View Post
Sounds like fair requests or requirements but like you, I am skeptical as to how the requirements can all be met. Also no dates to shoot for.
From the article linked in post #111:

The governor said the length of the order largely depends on when hospitalizations and intensive care patients with COVID-19 flatten and decline in California. He said the end date is fluid and that he expects to provide an answer in the next two weeks if conditions continue to improve.

Not sure it's going to be any time soon. Yesterday (4/14), L.A. County public health officials confirmed 40 more deaths, the highest number of deaths reported in a single day. No one can gauge this stuff that accurately. This virus is like nothing ever experienced before.
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Old 04-15-2020, 10:03 AM
 
Location: Corona del Mar, CA - Coronado, CA
4,477 posts, read 3,302,333 times
Reputation: 5609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimrob1 View Post
I heard on the news a pastor at a Texas Mega Church has died of the virus. He refused to stop indoor services from the start of the shutdowns. I wonder how many have been infected by that church crowd.
I've searched the Internet extensively and can't find a "pastor at a Texas Mega Church" who died of Covid 19. I did find a VA pastor who died, but I am not sure his church is a "mega church". Do you have a source?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
True, Mike ... but it’s also even more true that Youtube videos posted by unknown or extremist sources are a worse source of information by far than CNN. Just sayin’.
Why would a Youtube video be a worse source of information, regardless of who posted it? It is the content that should be judged, not the poster.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CA4Now View Post
There are plenty of sources discrediting Bukacek.
What is there to discredit? She was reading directly from the CDC guidelines.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CA4Now View Post
If anything, the number of deaths as a result of COVID-19 is probably underreported, due to the fact that few patients up until recently were even tested for it, at least in our state. Many people are now requesting information about whether their family members who recently died had the virus.
What is your source for under-reporting?
Quote:
Originally Posted by CA4Now View Post
When a person dies of natural causes while under the care of a medical professional, either at home or in a healthcare facility, the coroner generally doesn’t get involved and the treating physician signs the death certificate.

The physicians are required to denote whether COVID-19 played a role and to report all such deaths to the Department of Public Health and the coroner’s office. They also must report deaths of presumed COVID-19 cases, according to guidelines released by the health department last week.
Presumed? You are okay with "presumed"? Is that how we do it now? Just presume based on no facts what happened?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
CNN has sh*t its bed with regard to covering Trump. But, while it goes obsessively over the top covering crises of the days other than Trump as well, it does at least provide sources and context ... which extremist Youtube campaigns do not.
Here is the quote from the CNN story:
Quote:
Hume, who previously tweeted that New York's "fatality numbers are inflated," tweeted on Tuesday evening, "Well Dr. [Deborah] Birx just said it. Anyone in U.S. who dies with Covid-19, regardless of what else may be wrong, is now being recorded as a Covid-19 death." (This is not quite what Birx said. She explained that if someone who goes into the hospital to be treated for the virus also "had a pre-existing condition" that eventually caused the individual to die, that would be counted as a Covid-19 death.)
Hume's quote sounds pretty accurate, if slightly different. Birx said very definitely if the person is killed by their pre-existing condition, but had Covid 19 that should be counted as a Covid 19 death even though it wasn't the actual cause of death.

How is extremist CNN (see I can use adjectives too) providing context and sources vs the Youtube video? The doctor provided her source, the CDC. You can go read the guidelines for yourself. I don't think the CDC is asking for the information for nefarious purposes, but I do think others will use the information for nefarious purposes without providing context.
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Old 04-15-2020, 10:40 AM
 
Location: On the water.
21,740 posts, read 16,356,570 times
Reputation: 19831
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter View Post
I've searched the Internet extensively and can't find a "pastor at a Texas Mega Church" who died of Covid 19. I did find a VA pastor who died, but I am not sure his church is a "mega church". Do you have a source?


Why would a Youtube video be a worse source of information, regardless of who posted it? It is the content that should be judged, not the poster.


What is there to discredit? She was reading directly from the CDC guidelines.

What is your source for under-reporting?

Presumed? You are okay with "presumed"? Is that how we do it now? Just presume based on no facts what happened?



Here is the quote from the CNN story:Hume's quote sounds pretty accurate, if slightly different. Birx said very definitely if the person is killed by their pre-existing condition, but had Covid 19 that should be counted as a Covid 19 death even though it wasn't the actual cause of death.

How is extremist CNN (see I can use adjectives too) providing context and sources vs the Youtube video? The doctor provided her source, the CDC. You can go read the guidelines for yourself. I don't think the CDC is asking for the information for nefarious purposes, but I do think others will use the information for nefarious purposes without providing context.
I completely agree the content should be judged and not the presenter. But content in this age can readily be, and often is, presented out of context ... and is easily transformed and manipulated. This is why transparent sourcing and investigative reporting are important. Youtube clips do not present that. Youtube, Twitter, Instagram et al are completely untrustworthy when delivered by unknown sources.

The doctor is quoting apparently correctly from the CDC guidelines, yes. She is not, however, providing any other contextual information or examination of the issue. The facts are that the depth of statistics on Covid19 are far from fully compiled. The virus was advancing and spreading for months before identified statistically ... and even when finally acknowledged, testing was - AND REMAINS - woefully incomplete. Not ‘overstated’. Any credible medical scientist will laugh at any suggestion of “overstated”.

Quote:
DEBUNKING FALSE STORIES
Social Media Posts Make Baseless Claim on COVID-19 Death Toll

By Angelo Fichera

Posted on April 8, 2020
... Death certificates are basically federal, and each state has a public health division that answers to the [U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] for death certification,” Aiken, the Spokane County, Washington, medical examiner, told us in an email. “For all practical purposes death certification is directed by the feds, via health departments.”

Contrary to the Facebook posts, Aiken said, “Medical Examiners and Coroners certify hundreds to thousands of deaths each year, using investigation, autopsies, and medical tests as required, and do not choose a ‘default diagnosis’ such as COVID-19.”

Aiken pointed out that CDC offers guidance to public health officials on the certification of COVID-19 deaths. The latest guidance was issued April 2.

“If COVID–19 played a role in the death, this condition should be specified on the death certificate. In many cases, it is likely that it will be the [underlying cause of death], as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS),” the guidance says. “In these cases, COVID-19 should be reported on the lowest line used in Part I with the other conditions to which it gave rise listed on the lines above it.”

The CDC advises that officials should report deaths in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 — or, if a test isn’t available, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” It further indicates that if a “definitive diagnosis cannot be made … but it is suspected or likely … it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed.'”

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/so...19-death-toll/
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Old 04-15-2020, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Massachusetts
9,532 posts, read 16,522,023 times
Reputation: 14575
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter View Post
I've searched the Internet extensively and can't find a "pastor at a Texas Mega Church" who died of Covid 19. I did find a VA pastor who died, but I am not sure his church is a "mega church". Do you have a source

Why would a Youtube video be a worse source of information, regardless of who posted it? It is the content that should be judged, not the poster.


What is there to discredit? She was reading directly from the CDC guidelines.

What is your source for under-reporting?

Presumed? You are okay with "presumed"? Is that how we do it now? Just presume based on no facts what happened?



Here is the quote from the CNN story:Hume's quote sounds pretty accurate, if slightly different. Birx said very definitely if the person is killed by their pre-existing condition, but had Covid 19 that should be counted as a Covid 19 death even though it wasn't the actual cause of death.

How is extremist CNN (see I can use adjectives too) providing context and sources vs the Youtube video? The doctor provided her source, the CDC. You can go read the guidelines for yourself. I don't think the CDC is asking for the information for nefarious purposes, but I do think others will use the information for nefarious purposes without providing context.

Sorry it was New Deliverance Evangelistic Church Chesterfield VA not Texas. NY Times Article. The pastor was 66. I'm sorry I don't know how to post it. I'm older than that pastor was.
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Old 04-15-2020, 11:06 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
42,850 posts, read 26,285,621 times
Reputation: 34059
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizensadvocate View Post
Bay Area always seems to be a country of their own.
Though it appears liberal parts of the country as well as the world happens to be the parts that are embracing heavy handed control measure on their population.

Though Galvin's own hometown just passed a sweeping measure like this.
news.yahoo.com/welcome-back-plastic-bags-202844728.html
politico.com/states/california/story/2020/04/01/its-come-to-this-liberal-san-francisco-bay-area-bans-reusable-grocery-bags-1270319

I am curious when Galvin Newsom would push this state wide but only while suspending fees for any type of bags either at the state level or local level including over 100 ordinances that were grandfathered in prior to SB270. And maybe letting stores order any type of bag that are available if their standard paper or thick plastic stash run short on supply.
I've gotta hand it to you citizen, you somehow find a way to get plastic bags into every single one of your posts
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Old 04-15-2020, 02:21 PM
 
Location: Corona del Mar, CA - Coronado, CA
4,477 posts, read 3,302,333 times
Reputation: 5609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
The doctor is quoting apparently correctly from the CDC guidelines, yes. She is not, however, providing any other contextual information or examination of the issue. The facts are that the depth of statistics on Covid19 are far from fully compiled. The virus was advancing and spreading for months before identified statistically ... and even when finally acknowledged, testing was - AND REMAINS - woefully incomplete. Not ‘overstated’. Any credible medical scientist will laugh at any suggestion of “overstated”.
The deaths may not be overstated now, but they will become overstated if officials report any death in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 or, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” (whatever that means. Try telling the IRS your tax return is correct "within a reasonable degree of certainty). If a “definitive diagnosis cannot be made … but it is suspected or likely … it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed. If you ask for guesses you are going to get bad data. BIG decisions are being made on the data so it should be doubly accurate, not less.

For the current flu season the CDC says there are between 24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths. Hunh? Again, imagine telling the IRS you owe them between $24,000 and $62,000 and then paying them the lower number. Do you think they'd buy your "within a reasonable degree of certainty" explanation?

As long as the data is going to drive decisions, it needs to be as precise as possible.
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Old 04-15-2020, 02:56 PM
 
Location: On the water.
21,740 posts, read 16,356,570 times
Reputation: 19831
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter View Post
The deaths may not be overstated now, but they will become overstated if officials report any death in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 or, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” (whatever that means. Try telling the IRS your tax return is correct "within a reasonable degree of certainty). If a “definitive diagnosis cannot be made … but it is suspected or likely … it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed. If you ask for guesses you are going to get bad data. BIG decisions are being made on the data so it should be doubly accurate, not less.

For the current flu season the CDC says there are between 24,000 – 62,000 flu deaths. Hunh? Again, imagine telling the IRS you owe them between $24,000 and $62,000 and then paying them the lower number. Do you think they'd buy your "within a reasonable degree of certainty" explanation?

As long as the data is going to drive decisions, it needs to be as precise as possible.
Utter bullshirt.

We will NEVER know how many cases and deaths occurred because the tools for ascertaining that weren’t put in place contemporaneously to the outbreak ... nor are they fully in place now. Testing testing testing ... still not able to cover requests. What we do know is that this mess was wreaking havoc and death well before governments even tried to get a handle on it.

As for comparing pandemic to IRS filings: bizarre. Financial data requirements for taxes is well established protocol and known by everyone. It is also readily available ... in exactitude. Your analogy fails to be even remotely clever sophistry.
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Old 04-15-2020, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Corona del Mar, CA - Coronado, CA
4,477 posts, read 3,302,333 times
Reputation: 5609
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tulemutt View Post
Utter bullsh.
You remain as charming as always.
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Old 04-15-2020, 04:46 PM
 
Location: On the water.
21,740 posts, read 16,356,570 times
Reputation: 19831
Quote:
Originally Posted by TimTheEnchanter View Post
You remain as charming as always.
And irritatingly correct in my analyses.
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Old 04-15-2020, 08:47 PM
 
Location: Corona del Mar, CA - Coronado, CA
4,477 posts, read 3,302,333 times
Reputation: 5609
Here are the six items Newsom laid out for modifying the stay at home orders:

Quote:
  • If the state has expanded testing, contact tracing of COVID-19 patients, and the ability to isolate and support people who have tested positive or were exposed to COVID-19.
  • Whether the state protect its most vulnerable residents — the elderly and medically vulnerable — from COVID-19 by quickly containing outbreaks in facilities such as nursing homes and prisons.
  • How well the state's hospital and health systems can handle surges in COVID-19 patients.
  • Whether the state has developed new treatments for the coronavirus by working with private, public and academic partners.
  • If businesses, schools and child care facilities can maintain social distancing, including state guidelines requiring health checks for employees and customers who enter.
  • Whether the state has determined when it will reinstitute virus containment measures, including stay-home orders, by tracking the right data and quickly communicating those measures to the public.
There seem to be no actual metrics. How is anyone supposed to know if goals are being met?

How do they plan to have social distancing in K-12 schools? What does "isolate and support people who have tested positive" mean? Isolate where? It continues, "or were exposed to COVID-19". Soanyone even exposed, but not positive has to isolate?

It all sounds like academic/government gobbledygook speak. All hat and no cattle.
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