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Charles, I read that article today too-very interesting. The next few years will be very interesting in terms of immigration from Mexico and Central America-will it come to a halt? It for sure won't be as large as from 2000-2007. It looks as if the immigrant population to L.A. has slowed down a lot. Maybe this will be the trend for the Inland Empire as well.
i am leaving los angeles when i can. i dont hate los angeles. i just could never afford to live the kind of life i want to have and HAVE SUFFICIENT SAVINGS!!
The conditions for a riot are complicated, no question.
But if you had said in 1992 that in the next 17 years....
-Wages would be flat to down
-Gas would go to $4
-Affordability (whether homes, healthcare, college, etc) would get out of the reach of most people
-Rich poor gap would widen significantly
On top of the 2008/09 economic recession/depresion. Unemployment is higher now than in early 90's recession.
I dont know the exact statistics, but I know la has one of the largest rich/poor gaps of any city in the country. Thats part of what makes it different than houston or dallas.
Other cities in ca or across the country are more homogeneous. There's a greater sense of community. And the imbalances arent as big, thats why I wouldnt expect riots in every ca city or every city in the country. When you combine such huge imbalances, and so many different kinds of people tightly packed together, it seems like something would bound to happen.
Maybe the response would be better. I forget how many days it took the lapd, national guard to get on top of the 92 riots. There was a timeline and they didnt jump on it early enough.
Remember the staples center mini riot during the shaq/kobe era 2000-2002. Vs the response this year.
Certainly LAPD was worst in 92, no question.
The future in total is complicated.
-Depends on immigration from mexico and central america. Whether the boom from 2000 to 2007 is over. The housing industry was built to unsustainable levels. Construction and housing jobs may never be as high as they were.
-Home prices from 2000 to 2007 were an anomaly, may now bring in more families?
-Politically, I dont know.
-Water/power, don't know.
LA is ranked about the 13th largest city in the world. Tokyo, Seoul South Korea, Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, are some of the cities ranked higher. How do they manage their water/power?
The conditions for a riot are complicated, no question.
But if you had said in 1992 that in the next 17 years....
-Wages would be flat to down
After the '92 riots many people, including myself, were convinced that L.A. was completely through and was about to turn into Detroit imminently. It didn't happen then. It could happen in the future, though. And there were many people complaining about the low wages of L.A. at that time in relation to the Bay Area.
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-Affordability (whether homes, healthcare, college, etc) would get out of the reach of most people
Ironically, the riots probably prevented a real estate bubble from developing in L.A. as property values and rents took a nosedive. Once L.A. finally started to recover in about '97 it was a pretty affordable city and actually somewhat pleasant. (I wonder if your memory is mixing up different parts of the '90s. The early '90s were worse than the present although things seem to be heading in that direction. However the late '90s were definitely much better.)
Much of the phenomena you describe is a direct result of the RE bubble. And reduced affordability of healthcare and college is not unique to L.A. nor even to California.
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Rich poor gap would widen significantly
This could happen anywhere which isn't creating high paying new jobs to replace the old ones that disappeared. And don't forget the massive flight of people and employers post-riots sped this along.
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On top of the 2008/09 economic recession/depresion. Unemployment is higher now than in early 90's recession.
True. However there needs to be something more to push said conditions over the edge. The mass prisoner release may be it (although obviously not all the released prisoners are going to L.A., many will go to the Bay Area, IE, Sac, OC, SD, etc.)
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I dont know the exact statistics, but I know la has one of the largest rich/poor gaps of any city in the country. Thats part of what makes it different than houston or dallas.
Smallest middle class in the USA, even smaller than NYC (the only reason why NYC's middle class is larger than LA's is because of Brooklyn and Queens) with a Gini coefficient at Brazilian levels. Yet extreme economic inequality isn't unique to L.A. I see it on a daily basis in SF.
There hasn't been a big riot in NYC for some time - even Crown Heights wasn't as bad as LA's April 1992. You'd have to go back to the '70s.
And Cleveland hasn't seen rioting since the early '70s despite being more screwed up than L.A.
Also, Houston has a higher crime rate than L.A. and has had high crime for many years, even in the early '90s when L.A. was one of the most dangerous cities in the country Houston was comparable. You have more wealth/poverty gaps in Houston than you probably know and if Houston continues to grow than those will increase just like L.A.
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Other cities in ca or across the country are more homogeneous
L.A.'s more homogenous than NYC and Chicago, maybe not in the sense that some people would like though.
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There's a greater sense of community. And the imbalances arent as big, thats why I wouldnt expect riots in every ca city or every city in the country.
The Bay Area could be easily ripe for riots and not just Oakland either. You have similar disparities. Sacramento and the IE could see rioting.
Also remember in April '92 when rioting spread from L.A. to other Western cities (including SF and Oakland), the only city where the riots got serious almost to L.A. levels was Las Vegas - which AT THAT TIME had less of an imbalance than now and was a great deal more homogenous.
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When you combine such huge imbalances, and so many different kinds of people tightly packed together, it seems like something would bound to happen.
Not necessarily, other factors are needed. (Then again, even if there is future violence, it may not take the form of rioting, given what's been in the news the last several years it might take the form of bombings....I hope that this violence is avoided).
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Maybe the response would be better. I forget how many days it took the lapd, national guard to get on top of the 92 riots. There was a timeline and they didnt jump on it early enough.
LAPD did nothing. The National Guard didn't get ammo until the weekend 3 days into the riot.
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Remember the staples center mini riot during the shaq/kobe era 2000-2002. Vs the response this year.
The rapid response time of LAPD at Staples this year was amongst other things intended to "send a message".
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Certainly LAPD was worst in 92, no question.
True.
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The future in total is complicated.
-Depends on immigration from mexico and central america.
The longer the economic bad times last, the lower immigration to SoCal is going to be, illegals are just like others and they'll go where the jobs are.
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Whether the boom from 2000 to 2007 is over. The housing industry was built to unsustainable levels. Construction and housing jobs may never be as high as they were.
No doubt that is never going to come back (and said boom is part of the reasons why affordability is such a problem - the bubble created more problems than people realize)
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-Home prices from 2000 to 2007 were an anomaly, may now bring in more families?
Unless LAUSD changes drastically probably not in LAUSD territory. You'd also need to see more decently paying jobs being created.
I remember talking to some Russians right after the riots about why the riots didn't occur in West Hollywood even though there was looting in the LAPD covered areas adjacent to West Hollywood. They said if that did happen the Russian Mob would get involved. The one thing that L.A. gangs are scared of is the Russian Mob.
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-Politically, I dont know.
-Water/power, don't know.
LA is ranked about the 13th largest city in the world. Tokyo, Seoul South Korea, Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto, are some of the cities ranked higher. How do they manage their water/power?
Different climate, for one thing. Also Japan is very high tech when it comes to those things and their infrastructure is top notch. Those cities in the world which have climates like L.A., such as Palermo or Tunis, don't have as many people. There isn't the money to improve the water/power infrastructure which would prevent economic growth in the future and discourage people from moving to L.A. OTOH there are other parts of the country which would LOVE to see population growth and immigration AND have the water to handle it, in the Great Lakes area. L.A.'s pretty much at its limit re: water/power right now.
In any case, riots or not (and certainly there are events which could significantly increase the chance of riots occurring which I mentioned), I do see decline barring any massive political changes. Whether the decline will get to Detroit levels is anyone's guess but it is very much within the realm of possibility.
To much crime, too many BEANERS, and their are too many Gangs. The average man cannot make an Honest living without having a life, and their are too many illegals. The future of LA is looking really grimm. Their is going to soon be an earth quake which will distroy alot of downtown LA, breaking sky scrapers suggesting the Niagra Falls goes underneith the city. The the North poles Ice Cap is going to melt causing flooding in LA. Then the city is gonna be in mass chaos like New Orleans, nuthing but drug dealing and gang banging and Opra is going to donate the millions of dollars she scammed to help put it back together as a publicity stunt. **** OPRA, and **** THE TALIBAN!
Nah, the quake will cause LA and California to fall into the sea before the ice caps will cause LA to disappear from flooding.
Nah, the quake will cause LA and California to fall into the sea before the ice caps will cause LA to disappear from flooding.
You're both wrong, the end will come when hybrid polar bears (bred by biologists at UCLA) escape and wander the streets of LA, eating everyone.
OK, to be serious for a second... IMO L.A. will always have a rosy future. It's scenic, it has mild weather, and it has beaches and mountains. For those reasons alone rich and influential people will always want to live there, and the towns where rich people live always seem to weather hard times.
A big earthquake is probably more likely than a riot. How many decades have people been talking about the "big one"?
I will say there have been people who have been talking about the upcoming mass prisoner release as being a potential trigger for a riot as the number of likely rioters would massively increase, but the prisoner release hasn't happened yet.
To much crime, too many BEANERS, and their are too many Gangs. The average man cannot make an Honest living without having a life, and their are too many illegals. The future of LA is looking really grimm. Their is going to soon be an earth quake which will distroy alot of downtown LA, breaking sky scrapers suggesting the Niagra Falls goes underneith the city. The the North poles Ice Cap is going to melt causing flooding in LA. Then the city is gonna be in mass chaos like New Orleans, nuthing but drug dealing and gang banging and Opra is going to donate the millions of dollars she scammed to help put it back together as a publicity stunt. **** OPRA, and **** THE TALIBAN!
If that happens, the drug dealers and gang bangers would all be dead like everyone else.
LA will always be a destination point.
no gloom and doom.
no riots.
alot of posters here are quite pessimistic. life in LA must really suck for those guys...
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Originally Posted by Caladium
You're both wrong, the end will come when hybrid polar bears (bred by biologists at UCLA) escape and wander the streets of LA, eating everyone.
OK, to be serious for a second... IMO L.A. will always have a rosy future. It's scenic, it has mild weather, and it has beaches and mountains. For those reasons alone rich and influential people will always want to live there, and the towns where rich people live always seem to weather hard times.
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