Real Estate Market beginning a big Price Correction? Especially in the suburban over a $million bracket? (renters, buyers)

[Brave Stranger]

My impression of the greater Boston real estate market is that it has crossed the Rubicon.....it now resembles NYC & San Francisco. Which means it's no longer going to be subject to great swings in downward prices. I could be wrong & a solid recession could tank the local real estate market, but I doubt it.

The banking crisis in 2008 only nicked most of the greater Boston real estate market whereas it crippled many other major urban areas. Since then the area has only grown more stable with new business & jobs.

[bugelrex]

Originally Posted by Brave Stranger

My impression of the greater Boston real estate market is that it has crossed the Rubicon.....it now resembles NYC & San Francisco. Which means it's no longer going to be subject to great swings in downward prices. I could be wrong & a solid recession could tank the local real estate market, but I doubt it.

The banking crisis in 2008 only nicked most of the greater Boston real estate market whereas it crippled many other major urban areas. Since then the area has only grown more stable with new business & jobs.

Are the growth in jobs mainly from tech/bio? These jobs can be quite volatile when stock valuations get hit

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by bugelrex

Are the growth in jobs mainly from tech/bio? These jobs can be quite volatile when stock valuations get hit

Likely yes, but many are r&d centers which, in my experience, tend to be retained along with manufacturing and infrastructure. Additionally, there a fair amount of services jobs in the area, which tend to clear 'deadwood' during recessions, but need to retain a 'billable core' for when the work picks back up.

[chicagoliz]

Originally Posted by Brave Stranger

My impression of the greater Boston real estate market is that it has crossed the Rubicon.....it now resembles NYC & San Francisco. Which means it's no longer going to be subject to great swings in downward prices. I could be wrong & a solid recession could tank the local real estate market, but I doubt it.

The banking crisis in 2008 only nicked most of the greater Boston real estate market whereas it crippled many other major urban areas. Since then the area has only grown more stable with new business & jobs.

I tend to agree. My neighbors said their homes didn't really decrease in value, but just remained stable during the 2008 crisis, and then afterward went right back to increasing. Barring some catastrophic disaster, I think Boston real estate will hold its value.

[Brave Stranger]

Originally Posted by bugelrex

Are the growth in jobs mainly from tech/bio? These jobs can be quite volatile when stock valuations get hit

There are extensive medical/research jobs that even in a bad economy are not going anywhere, and though some will disagree, the lifestyle in New England: the mountains in NH, the beaches of Cape Cod & the 4 distinct seasons will always draw & retain people.

On top of this Boston is one of the major college towns in the country....many well educated students stay here after graduation. It's a uniquely attractive area with a diversity of jobs, activities & history.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by Whatsnext75

I read an article yesterday that the MA median house price is at an all time high. Many people seem to think we are in bubble territory? Hard to say because the city is booming right now with new companies and jobs not to mention people paying all cash for million dollar homes. As a homeowner i dont want there to be a bubble but at the same time I think prices have become ridiculous and just overpriced. Many million dollar homes today just seem so average but people have this need to live here along with the money so they are buying.

You can detect bubbles by looking at the average earnings and average home price trends and seeing if they diverge. I suspect this current run up diverges less than what we had ten years ago. This doesn't always work, because there are specific things that can make the market increase more than it should without being a bubble, but it's a good start.

Even if we're not in a bubble that doesn't guarantee prices will stay high forever. just that the current prices are somewhat justified.

[Whatsnext75]

While there are lots of new tech/bio jobs here you still have to remember all the jobs provided by the hospitals, universities and quite a few finance jobs.

[495neighbor]

I've been having quite a few conversations lately with millennials who are leaving the area, many who grew up here. If this is a trend, there has to be a correction coming.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by 495neighbor

I've been having quite a few conversations lately with millennials who are leaving the area, many who grew up here. If this is a trend, there has to be a correction coming.

But aren't millennials mostly renting vs. buying high end properties and contributing to the run up?

[Dm84]

Originally Posted by 495neighbor

I've been having quite a few conversations lately with millennials who are leaving the area, many who grew up here. If this is a trend, there has to be a correction coming.

They're being replaced by people moving into the area, just like NYC.