Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Springfield, Natick: employment, purchase, elementary school)

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

You're also assuming that the mRNA vaccines don't work against the variants. They were not studied that way, of course, but this is pure speculation. According to many experts those vaccines are expected to have some efficacy...maybe not 95%...against the UK & South Africa variants.

My understanding was that on the UK variant it's good to go, but on the South Africa, Brazil, New York, etc. it's still completely unknown. Unless I missed something?

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by massnative71

My understanding was that on the UK variant it's good to go, but on the South Africa, Brazil, New York, etc. it's still completely unknown. Unless I missed something?

Other than the J&J, the other vaccines have not been studied against any of them in the original clinical trials. My only point was that claims for/against are premature and panic is not warranted.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by redplum33

You are overlooking possible mutations. The more it spreads, the higher the chance for mutations.

Bottom line: There is a rapidly spreading variant out there. None of us know where this is going, but it seems obvious that it's a poor idea to stop taking precautions at the current time.

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

You're also assuming that the mRNA vaccines don't work against the variants. They were not studied that way, of course, but this is pure speculation. According to many experts those vaccines are expected to have some efficacy...maybe not 95%...against the UK & South Africa variants.

No, I'm not assuming that. I'm suggesting the possibility of new variants emerging. The way to limit the chances of that happening is to reduce the spread.

[jtolpin]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Hopefully she's vaccinated by then...because don't expect any personal responsibility or mask enforcement in stores (even if they require it).

She and I both get the moderna.... we're ok.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by redplum33

No, I'm not assuming that. I'm suggesting the possibility of new variants emerging. The way to limit the chances of that happening is to reduce the spread.

Seeing as compliance is largely unenforced and imperfect in MA, never mind the high density slums of Kinshasa, I don't see how a sustained 'lock down' was or ever will be viable solution for preventing mutations. The virus is far too prolific.

However, if you want to suggest the state's reopening is too aggressive given the currently limited vaccination rate, fine ... argue away. The CDC guidance is, in comparison, largely a non-factor ... especially given state guidance on private gatherings.

IMO, we need to shift to testing and tracing ASAP as fatigue is high and once people are vaccinated many will surely ignore any state or fed guidance.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by massnative71

My understanding was that on the UK variant it's good to go, but on the South Africa, Brazil, New York, etc. it's still completely unknown. Unless I missed something?

That's my understanding. The three vaccines used in the US are all effective against B.1.1.7. There isn't enough data to say anything conclusive about B.1.351 or P.1. Pfizer says it looks OK on their lab bench. Moderna has a B.1.351 booster which says volumes about what they think. Israel in the real world has less optimistic data about Pfizer and B.1.351.


I imagine there will be a bunch of data in South Africa and Brazil in a couple of months to know where we really stand. We're only analyzing 0.3% of the positives so it's tough to guess how much of those is actually here. We really need to be sequencing more like 5%. Yet another public health failure.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Other than the J&J, the other vaccines have not been studied against any of them in the original clinical trials. My only point was that claims for/against are premature and panic is not warranted.

It's true that clinical trials haven't been completed on the two mRNA vaccines versus the British variant B.1.1.7, however, they're expected to perform well against it. "In August 2020 another variant started to spread in the UK (where surveillance for such events is particularly thorough), and its contribution to the pandemic in that country increased rapidly from November 2020 through January 2021. Often called the “UK strain,” but more formally known as B.1.1.7, this variant has now been detected in many countries, including the US. The key sequence change in the S-protein is called N501Y, which again appears to increase the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2, although in a manner subtly different from D614G. Regarding protection by vaccination, however, again fortunately, the location of the N501Y change makes it unlikely to affect most of the NAb binding sites on the RBD.3 For example, recently released data show that serum samples from the recipients of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna mRNA vaccines are equally effective at neutralizing viruses that contain or lack the N501Y change.4,5"

See: "SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines and the Growing Threat of Viral Variants", Moore et al
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2776039

P.S. NAb= Neutralizing antibodies, one of the forms of immune system protection that can be driven by exposure to a vaccine

[yesmaybe]

https://www.wcvb.com/article/massach...-2021/35794895

MA is switching to a new pre-registration system starting on Friday. This only applies to the MassVax sites.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Moderna has a B.1.351 booster which says volumes about what they think. Israel in the real world has less optimistic data about Pfizer and B.1.351.


I imagine there will be a bunch of data in South Africa and Brazil in a couple of months to know where we really stand. We're only analyzing 0.3% of the positives so it's tough to guess how much of those is actually here. We really need to be sequencing more like 5%. Yet another public health failure.

My impression from the study released in late January was that the Moderna mRNA showed a reduced, but still “significant” immune response. I assume the developed booster closes the gap for patients with extremely marginal immune systems. That would be my hope anyway.

It’s certainly creates some healthy caution for high risk individuals who thought they were fully protected by the Moderna vaccine, but I don’t think it should induce panic. Particularly since Moderna was seemingly able to quickly develop an effective booster.

Edit: I’m a Moderna shareholder so I’m definitely drinking the koolaid.

[redplum33]

Can we just refer to them as UK and South Africa variants instead of the numbers?