Coronavirus in Massachusetts (stores, estimate, health)

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by redplum33

It spreads much easier. That means more hospitalizations and more deaths. It also means a higher likelihood for potential mutations.

The new CDC guidelines are irresponsible.

It means more potential spread, and not anything more than that. The idea that this variant is more lethal has to do with spread, not the severity of infection. If the bulk of high risk individuals are vaccinated, I don't see this variant causing significant bumps in hospitalizations or deaths.

IFR/hospitalization numbers for low risk individuals is still incredibly low for this variant, meaning the unvaccinated population shouldn't respond notably worse.

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Well I guess Russians can come in for better or worse. J&J can do pretty good at 66%...but 50%? If it only works half the time and this is the best China can do at this point then it might not matter if they are vaccinated if it's only that good.

If you tell me something is 90-95% of the time it's going to happen ok great. 66%...well that's a double side bet in roulette. 50%?!? nope

How far down are we going to go if 50% is acceptable and just as good as 66%?

These data are VERY misleading.
The J&J vaccine is extremely effective at preventing serious illnesses and death

the trials showed that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine was far more successful at fighting a serious illness. The vaccine was 85% effective in preventing the most severe diseases, and 100 percent effective in stopping hospitalizations and death. .
https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/v...a-202cf2c1ffd7

I don't care that much if I get a moderate cold, what I care is that I am not going to die or end up in the hospital with potentially long term problems. At the moment there is no evidence that J&J is less effective at preventing the serious cases than Pfizer or Moderna.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

It means more potential spread, and not anything more than that. The idea that this variant is more lethal has to do with spread, not the severity of infection. If the bulk of high risk individuals are vaccinated, I don't see this variant causing significant bumps in hospitalizations or deaths.

IFR/hospitalization numbers for low risk individuals is still incredibly low for this variant, meaning the unvaccinated population shouldn't respond notably worse.

You are speaking with such authority while presenting speculation as fact. You are not an expert. And what's going on with the UK variant is still unclear to the actual experts.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by redplum33

You are speaking with such authority while presenting speculation as fact. You are not an expert. And what's going on with the UK variant is still unclear to the actual experts.

I would not be a panic monger. The data and warnings on the spread of the UK variant are largely based on a very low % of the population being vaccinated. The CDC guidelines for those who are fully vaccinated are too conservative, even according to some of the renowned experts who have opined through the course of the pandemic.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Lampert

I don't care that much if I get a moderate cold, what I care is that I am not going to die or end up in the hospital with potentially long term problems. At the moment there is no evidence that J&J is less effective at preventing the serious cases than Pfizer or Moderna.

You haven't mentioned long term symptoms but without hospitalization. I haven't seen good data on vaccinated people with long hauler symptoms like brain fog and fatigue. Then add B.1.351 and P.1 into the mix. The lab studies at least from Pfizer look encouraging but there is a conflicting message from the Israel Ministry of Health in the real world. With two Pfizer jabs, I'm not going to start licking doorknobs. There isn't enough data yet.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

I would not be a panic monger.

It has nothing to do with that. It's the presentation, and it's misleading.

There are too many unknowns.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by redplum33

You are speaking with such authority while presenting speculation as fact. You are not an expert. And what's going on with the UK variant is still unclear to the actual experts.

I'm expressing an opinion in opposition to your panic. Nothing about this new variant suggests a 'dooms day' scenario, yet you are suggesting as much as though its is inevitable.

It is not.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by redplum33

There are too many unknowns.

Then why are you suggesting this variant will increase the MA hospitalization and death rates?

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by redplum33

There are too many unknowns.

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Then why are you suggesting this variant will increase the MA hospitalization and death rates?

Because it is known that it spreads easier.

[Lampert]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

You haven't mentioned long term symptoms but without hospitalization. I haven't seen good data on vaccinated people with long hauler symptoms like brain fog and fatigue. Then add B.1.351 and P.1 into the mix. The lab studies at least from Pfizer look encouraging but there is a conflicting message from the Israel Ministry of Health in the real world. With two Pfizer jabs, I'm not going to start licking doorknobs. There isn't enough data yet.

Unfortunately to have clear long term data, you need to wait long term. I agree that there isn't enough data on that.
But the short term is pretty clear in that the J&J is a pretty good shot () at fighting serious covid.