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There's more to it than just the current unemployment rate though. You have to remember we are a consumer driven economy and when people aren't out there spending their money on things, it has a cascading effect. Of the small businesses that have held their breath for now, there's no way most could hold off for that long. Unemployment will be much worse than 20% if we stay in our current state for another 6 months. Anything hospitality will be devastated.
Yes, I agree. If you're an individual out of work who was previously living paycheck to paycheck, you're in deep poop. And the same goes for businesses that were just making ends meet and have had to close. For a time, maybe you can furlough employees, hope they make it somehow and hunker down, but you'll *still* have monthly bills like rent to make. Only a matter of time before you'll need to fold altogether.
If things continue to go the way they have so far, I could easily see us at 25% unemployment by the end of summer, maybe worse. As you say, there will be knock-on effects as fewer and fewer people have less and less money to spend...
If you are not worried about this virus, you are delusional, but if you are not worried about the business and unemployment trends, you are ALSO delusional.
If you are not worried about this virus, you are delusional, but if you are not worried about the business and unemployment trends, you are ALSO delusional.
This is it in a nutshell. The extremes - either quarantine indefinitely/forever or reopening everything now - are not the answer.
This is it in a nutshell. The extremes - either quarantine indefinitely/forever or reopening everything now - are not the answer.
I think, in general, business and hospitality and all will open slowly in many places and overnight in a few others (like Wisconsin). No matter what the guidance or rulings are about masks and distancing, many people will ignore them. Infections will continue where current seeded, among essential workers and their lives at home and in community. People who can stay home will continue to do so. Infections will continue to go up, maybe in linear fashion and not exponential.
Testing will not lower infections, it will maybe track the spread and inform data and resources. It is too late for significant contact tracing pretty much everywhere, I'd say.
Economics will continue to be clobbered. An economy that is 70 per cent consumption is not coming back.
Impossible to say what else could ensure, depending on the national election. I am heartsick so far but don't know what an answer should be except more relief money/programs for workers and households. There aren't jobs. Jobs in hospitality and tourism-related and travel are down the drain for the foreseeable future, and so many of those workers are the day-to-day people with no unemployment, and no fat in their systems at all.
I live in an area heavily dependent on tourism and outdoor recreation. The tax income for essentials are largely from the tourism. It's a world of hurt already for workers. The community hospital 24 miles away is laying off people because they didn't have the COVID surge that was expected, and people are putting off whatever care they might have come in for. That county has 124 confirmed cases and it goes up a couple every day. The hospital was in trouble financially anyway. People lack health coverage to begin with, never mind anyone that might have lost it from their job, now gone.
It's a mess. No idea what should be done except for a massive WPA program across the country, especially off the coasts and in tourism areas, like the Mountain West. There are still great trails and installations with the signs that they were constructed by the CCC. It's a proud thing and everybody wins.
Do you take the polio vaccine? MMR? any of the others? or you want to reverse herd immunity for these diseases, contrary to what you proffer in the case of COVID-19?
I had vaccines when I was younger but I decide the vaccine.Most of the vaccines I had was when I was too young to decide though. I do not trust this one there are too many strains of covid plus I believe they might force people to get this vaccine or you will not be able to leave your house. We have lost most of our freedoms and the last thing i want to do is put a vaccine from one of those pharamacutical companies that bill gates might be involved in. I trust the government even less after this whole faisco.
The good news in wisconsin is the supreme court voted what the governor there was doing was wrong and the people got their freedoms back!! I saw they had a big party at a bar with no masks!
I told massnative what these governors where doing where unconstitutional.
Last edited by justyouraveragetenant; 05-14-2020 at 02:46 PM..
I think, in general, business and hospitality and all will open slowly in many places and overnight in a few others (like Wisconsin). No matter what the guidance or rulings are about masks and distancing, many people will ignore them. Infections will continue where current seeded, among essential workers and their lives at home and in community. People who can stay home will continue to do so. Infections will continue to go up, maybe in linear fashion and not exponential.
Testing will not lower infections, it will maybe track the spread and inform data and resources. It is too late for significant contact tracing pretty much everywhere, I'd say.
Economics will continue to be clobbered. An economy that is 70 per cent consumption is not coming back.
Impossible to say what else could ensure, depending on the national election. I am heartsick so far but don't know what an answer should be except more relief money/programs for workers and households. There aren't jobs. Jobs in hospitality and tourism-related and travel are down the drain for the foreseeable future, and so many of those workers are the day-to-day people with no unemployment, and no fat in their systems at all.
I live in an area heavily dependent on tourism and outdoor recreation. The tax income for essentials are largely from the tourism. It's a world of hurt already for workers. The community hospital 24 miles away is laying off people because they didn't have the COVID surge that was expected, and people are putting off whatever care they might have come in for. That county has 124 confirmed cases and it goes up a couple every day. The hospital was in trouble financially anyway. People lack health coverage to begin with, never mind anyone that might have lost it from their job, now gone.
It's a mess. No idea what should be done except for a massive WPA program across the country, especially off the coasts and in tourism areas, like the Mountain West. There are still great trails and installations with the signs that they were constructed by the CCC. It's a proud thing and everybody wins.
Yes, some hospitals, in northern NJ and the NYC area for example, have been clobbered with Covid-19 patients. But other hospitals were told to empty beds and cancel elective surgeries, for a rush of Covid-19 patients that didn't come. They need revenue. Maybe they weren't flush with cash to begin with, and now they're in real trouble. There could be a lot of hospitals going bankrupt and closing.
I personally, so far, have not been affected directly by this. I still have my job (for the time being), which is in an industry classified as essential, and have been able to work from home. But I am not blind, and see that there is a lot of SERIOUS economic fallout from the virus countermeasures. I am very concerned about all those affected by these problems and think we cannot ignore them.
I had vaccines when I was younger but I decide the vaccine.Most of the vaccines I had was when I was too young to decide though. I do not trust this one there are too many strains of covid plus I believe they might force people to get this vaccine or you will not be able to leave your house. We have lost most of our freedoms and the last thing i want to do is put a vaccine from one of those pharamacutical companies that bill gates might be involved in. I trust the government even less after this whole faisco.
The good news in wisconsin is the supreme court voted what the governor there was doing was wrong and the people got their freedoms back!! I saw they had a big party at a bar with no masks!
I told massnative what these governors where doing where unconstitutional.
This is it in a nutshell. The extremes - either quarantine indefinitely/foreveror reopening everything now - are not the answer.
Nobody has said indefinitely/forever other than you (in a poor effort to argue that one unknown scenario is more likely than another). And exaggerating doesn't help make your point - which is nothing more than your personal preference and, frankly, not well thought out.
" “Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this [immunity] threshold,” Johns Hopkins University epidemiologists David Dowdy and Gypsyamber D’Souza wrote recently. “If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.”
Worldwide, 40 to 50 million people would likely die if countries decided to try and achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, University of Chicago associate professor Luis Barreiro, author of a recent study on herd immunity, told us.
“It’s completely irrational to consider that as an option,” Barreiro said."
This is it in a nutshell. The extremes - either quarantine indefinitely/forever or reopening everything now - are not the answer.
I guess I’m repetitive about this but if we as a society commit to taking the necessary steps to lower the transmission rate below 1.0, we can open most things back up. Masks. Hand hygiene. A bit of distancing. That’s probably enough for anyone not high risk. The people who have the big problem are low income multi generational families and high risk people with jobs where it’s impossible to stay in a bubble. It’s not going to happen in 2020 with this Presidency and Senate but it really should be the obligation of society to consider those people who are high risk and can’t sit on the sidelines isolated until an effective treatment or vaccine shows up.
Personally, I think some blend of antivirals and antibody therapy will gradually evolve that knocks the worst of the risk out. Kind of like AIDS where it was initially a death sentence but we slowly got better at treating it so it’s not a death sentence.
Nobody has said indefinitely/forever other than you (in a poor effort to argue that one unknown scenario is more likely than another). And exaggerating doesn't help make your point - which is nothing more than your personal preference and, frankly, not well thought out.
" “Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this [immunity] threshold,” Johns Hopkins University epidemiologists David Dowdy and Gypsyamber D’Souza wrote recently. “If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.”
Worldwide, 40 to 50 million people would likely die if countries decided to try and achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, University of Chicago associate professor Luis Barreiro, author of a recent study on herd immunity, told us.
“It’s completely irrational to consider that as an option,” Barreiro said."
You argued that anyone who believes that there's another approach beside the current lockdown is "delusional" until we have a vaccine (and that the gov't should just "print money" as if inflation isn't a thing that exists). I argued that a vaccine is months away (best case scenario) and we cannot reasonably expect that the majority of the population will continue with the status quo until a vaccine is readily available so a carefully measured approach to gradually reopening the economy and loosing restrictions is the best and most realistic option going forward. Not sure why that's hard to follow?
Nobody has said indefinitely/forever other than you (in a poor effort to argue that one unknown scenario is more likely than another). And exaggerating doesn't help make your point - which is nothing more than your personal preference and, frankly, not well thought out.
" “Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this [immunity] threshold,” Johns Hopkins University epidemiologists David Dowdy and Gypsyamber D’Souza wrote recently. “If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.”
Worldwide, 40 to 50 million people would likely die if countries decided to try and achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, University of Chicago associate professor Luis Barreiro, author of a recent study on herd immunity, told us.
“It’s completely irrational to consider that as an option,” Barreiro said."
"In late April, the United Nations World Food Program reported that 250 million people may face starvation as a result of the economic impact of Covid-19"
Which is better?
And I believe the original models had 50K people dying in Sweden? And yet they are at 3,500 with the healthcare system never being overwhelmed, and very close to herd immunity.
Last edited by NewfieMama; 05-14-2020 at 03:43 PM..
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