Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston: transfer, to sell, household)

[Shrewsburried]

Thanks for the data update.

One thing to keep in mind is that patients who arrive with overt symptoms (I.e., needing intubation) or worse, DOA, are not being tested for Covid-19.

Local healthcare facilities are still gearing up for a mid-April peak, or about the next 10-15 days in MA.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

One thing to keep in mind is that patients who arrive with overt symptoms (I.e., needing intubation) or worse, DOA, are not being tested for Covid-19.

I've heard that as well. I've seen articles reporting in other countries expressing that many deaths are not being reported due to lack of testing. For example, 15 people in an Italian nursing home may perish, but only 4 were tested for Covid. It would be reported as 4 COVID deaths, but the other 11 would not be reported as such.

Makes you look at the current 70K death tool number and wonder how much higher it should actually be.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I've heard that as well. I've seen articles reporting in other countries expressing that many deaths are not being reported due to lack of testing. For example, 15 people in an Italian nursing home may perish, but only 4 were tested for Covid. It would be reported as 4 COVID deaths, but the other 11 would not be reported as such.

Makes you look at the current 70K death tool number and wonder how much higher it should actually be.

To be clear, I heard it directly from local hospital staff on an all-hands Zoom.

Additionally, they're advising staff who test negative remain home if they're are feeling symptomatic. Apparently, the virus can still be present deep in lung tissue despite swabs tests failing to show the virus is present. Not sure how staffing is holding up in MA, but NYC they've lost (temporarily) about 1/3rd their staff (according to NYT).

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Forgot my daily update for Sun, April 5th. To busy unplugging and being out in the sunshine (within my yard)

Number of new cases for MA: 764
Number of deaths: 15

Even though one day does not indicate a trend, I felt a little shimmer of hope after seeing yesterday's numbers. Then I saw the number of tests was lower than previous days (over 2,000 fewer tests compared to the day prior). So that glimmer faded pretty quickly. It's too early to put much stock in any decline in death totals. We're nearing peak infections, but the death toll will likely rise sharply even as new infections decline due to the length of time it takes between symptoms showing and a case becoming severe.

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Additionally, they're advising staff who test negative remain home if they're are feeling symptomatic. Apparently, the virus can still be present deep in lung tissue despite swabs tests failing to show the virus is present.

That makes sense. After my father's results came back negative a few weeks ago, he was instructed to remain quarantined for an additional 2 weeks. The nurse said his negative test meant it was "likely" that he didn't have COVID-19, but there was no way to be sure of the test's accuracy rate at this point.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by lrfox

Even though one day does not indicate a trend, I felt a little shimmer of hope after seeing yesterday's numbers. Then I saw the number of tests was lower than previous days (over 2,000 fewer tests compared to the day prior). So that glimmer faded pretty quickly. It's too early to put much stock in any decline in death totals. We're nearing peak infections, but the death toll will likely rise sharply even as new infections decline due to the length of time it takes between symptoms showing and a case becoming severe.

I withheld any sort of speculation on the trend as well until more data is seen. The US, as a whole, was down yesterday with an almost 10K reduction in reported cases nationwide. NY also saw a decline.

Seemed like most states were down over the weekend. You can isolate the states at the below line and see the trends on daily cases.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en


The model that has been made quite famous lately has been updated. MA is now projected to peak on April 18th. That's 2 days later. Also appears the death toll has been revised downwards slightly.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections


Very curious to see today's numbers. The doc posts to this link if anyone wants to bookmark it and check themselves (if i'm too busy to post an update)
https://www.mass.gov/info-details/co...and-monitoring

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by Arya Stark

And now I see they are calling for masks in Boston --well dude, if you want to provide me one? Unless this is a naked power grab it makes me think that perhaps they know that Boston is the epicenter of spread in the state. Though I find that amazing because I have been in to Boston lately and it was a waste land. Charlie Baker said they were putting more effort into finding how the cases spread so I think it could be that.

The recommendation nationwide is to wear cloth, nonmedical masks when in public. The Boston recommendation is just a reminder of the CDC's recommendation to the nation.



Use a scarf, bandana, or tshirt. Or look in your town or neighborhood Facebook group - lots of people are making them for neighbors either for free or at cost of materials. The idea is that it catches droplets of people who are asymptomatic and reduces the reach of the virus. I protect you, and you protect me.



6 feet slows the spread, but it doesn't prevent it. The masks theoretically get us a little bit closer to preventing it if the majority of people use them. Not 100%, but closer. In particular, it is helpful in protecting people who work at the stores who have less control over their surroundings and more exposure.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by charolastra00

The recommendation nationwide is to wear cloth, nonmedical masks when in public. The Boston recommendation is just a reminder of the CDC's recommendation to the nation.



Use a scarf, bandana, or tshirt. Or look in your town or neighborhood Facebook group - lots of people are making them for neighbors either for free or at cost of materials. The idea is that it catches droplets of people who are asymptomatic and reduces the reach of the virus. I protect you, and you protect me.



6 feet slows the spread, but it doesn't prevent it. The masks theoretically get us a little bit closer to preventing it if the majority of people use them. Not 100%, but closer. In particular, it is helpful in protecting people who work at the stores who have less control over their surroundings and more exposure.

Personally, I'm not at all comfortable putting something on my face that has been in someone else's house.

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

I withheld any sort of speculation on the trend as well until more data is seen. The US, as a whole, was down yesterday with an almost 10K reduction in reported cases.

Seemed like most states were down over the weekend. Could be that labs were closed and tests were not processed (given the urgency, doubtful). You can isolate the states at the below line and see the trends on daily cases.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en


The model that has been made quite famous lately has been updated. MA is now projected to peak on April 18th. That's 2 days later. Also appears the death toll has been revised downwards slightly.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Thanks for noticing that the death toll went downward slightly on that model. When I saw the update, I had a surge of despair that the peak was a few days later. I know logically that is what happens as the curve flattens, but I know the next few weeks until we get to and even for weeks after we hit the peak is going to be exceptionally difficult.



Quest Diagnosics here in Marlborough was packed this weekend. I'd never driven by before, but I needed to keep the ol' Prius charged after not driving more than 5 minutes in about 3 weeks, so I spent an hour going down back roads I'd never been to before on Sunday. I couldn't believe how many cars were in the parking lot in an office park until I saw the sign.

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by redplum33

Personally, I'm not at all comfortable putting something on my face that has been in someone else's house.

I would assume no matter where it came from that you would wash in hot water with detergent before using and following every subsequent usage.



I understand that fear, though. That's why there are so many tutorials online about how to make your own no-sew cloth masks from a bandana or old tshirt along with hair ties or elastics. If you *can* sew, you don't really even need the elastics - you can rig up your own ties yourself.

[Arya Stark]

Originally Posted by lrfox

Even though one day does not indicate a trend, I felt a little shimmer of hope after seeing yesterday's numbers.

I am cautiously optimistic. However, I have noticed a weekend dip. I suspect that something that reports does not work on the weekends.

But IMHO as long as we don't keep going up... it is a win.

In Massachusetts I would note that number of people tested is going down as well... that seems like a hint as to what we can expect in the future.