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Belmont was on my radar as was Chestnut Hill area of Newton. I had a work contact from Boston tell me none of his clients in Boston live in Belmont (I'm a client of his) which was basically saying its not on par with other areas I was asking him about (Wellesley / Newton / Brookline / Cambridge) but the area looks appealing. Home prices do seem to have spiked in Boston esp South End it seems. There isn't much on the market in Brookline / Cambridge currently but it looks like Brookline has appreciated the least (while still up considerably). There also look to be some places in Newton that are close to their last sale price from 5 years ago. I definitely don't want to overpay and lose a significant amount on a home - between South End / Brookline / Cambridge / Belmont / Newton how would you rate them in terms of "riskiness" of investment? We could also rent for a year but I'm not sure I want to make 2 moves although my SO prefers renting for a year. I just don't want to get into a situation where we're sitting around waiting for a housing collapse that doesn't occur.
Belmont was on my radar as was Chestnut Hill area of Newton. I had a work contact from Boston tell me none of his clients in Boston live in Belmont (I'm a client of his) which was basically saying its not on par with other areas I was asking him about (Wellesley / Newton / Brookline / Cambridge) but the area looks appealing. Home prices do seem to have spiked in Boston esp South End it seems. There isn't much on the market in Brookline / Cambridge currently but it looks like Brookline has appreciated the least (while still up considerably). There also look to be some places in Newton that are close to their last sale price from 5 years ago. I definitely don't want to overpay and lose a significant amount on a home - between South End / Brookline / Cambridge / Belmont / Newton how would you rate them in terms of "riskiness" of investment? We could also rent for a year but I'm not sure I want to make 2 moves although my SO prefers renting for a year. I just don't want to get into a situation where we're sitting around waiting for a housing collapse that doesn't occur.
As far as suburbs, Wellesley, Weston, Belmont, Winchester, Concord, Dover, Lexington, Newton, etc. etc. are all Tier 1.
I'm not sure how I'd rank them as far as reputation and desirability, but I certainly wouldn't put Newton above Belmont.
As for home appreciation, I'm betting against city neighborhoods, right? Rent decreases has given us a good indication, both in Chicago and in Boston, that demand is lower than it was YoY. Housing prices, which seem to be stagnant or on the decline in these Northern cities, will stay that way for the foreseeable future I would assume. Work from home doesn't bode well for the long term, either, as I think it's going to be as much the norm as it is the exception.
Folks will always want to be in a brown stone, or within walking distance to conveniences. But more and more, concessions will be made to get a larger house, large yard with the new WFH flexibility.
Inventory has remained super low in the Boston suburbs, while demand has only grown. Greater Boston is kind of anomaly post-recession.. Demand has been so high, and prices have seen record breaking increases. But now, and despite the exodus of folks in the city in recent months electing for the suburbs, prices and values are only incrementally moving north. At some point, there's only so many people who can pay $3-4-5-15M for a house, regardless of inventory constraints. It's really the middle class suburbs and the outer ring suburbs seem to have been the beneficiaries of this latest push.
All of that to say, I'd bet Belmont and Newton values hold stronger than Cambridge or Brookline, which will hold stronger than Boston itself. Ultimately, who knows.. Just a guess.
mwj119 - Thanks for your insight. We bought our house in Chicago at the bottom - 2012 - and will pretty much break even when we sell now. The doubling in taxes probably cost us $500k in value (if you treat the tax increase as an annuity) and the social unrest / crime is driving people to the Chicago burbs. Sounds like my SO might win the rent vs buy argument for the time being so we can see where things are once the dust settles.
mwj119 - Thanks for your insight. We bought our house in Chicago at the bottom - 2012 - and will pretty much break even when we sell now. The doubling in taxes probably cost us $500k in value (if you treat the tax increase as an annuity) and the social unrest / crime is driving people to the Chicago burbs. Sounds like my SO might win the rent vs buy argument for the time being so we can see where things are once the dust settles.
Yeah, totally understand.
Chicago and the suburbs rebounded (or, didn't) in such a drastically different way than Greater Boston. We see houses quite frequently in Chicagoland that sell for less than they did in 2010 (!). Even with the demand increases in the suburbs of Chicago since COVID started, we're still not seeing a ton of material movement in values. These taxes in Cook/Lake/DuPage/McHenry, especially for the luxury market, have punished appreciation.
Given the commute to Copley and budget, Brookline is my first thought. Newton and Wellesley are also options for a less urban option.
If stability of taxes is a concern, Cambridge has a MASSIVE commercial tax base in Kendall Square. Cambridge spends over $27k per K-12 student, a huge outlier among sizable school districts. Despite this, taxes are still super low. a $2MM assessed property after owner deduction is about $8k in property taxes. Cambridgeport away from Central Square is quite residential and nice. I'm personally a huge fan of Cambridge, but the commute to Copley is a little awkward.
Wow mwj119 - incredibly helpful and a lot to digest! Re: South End - it seems like we'd have to go over $4mm to get a SFH / Brownstone there. Also the taxes seem to be higher (maybe that's just a function of how expensive the homes are though). I did some research on RE taxes and Cambridge and Brookline both have lower than average (for MA) rates. Its a sensitive topic as my RE taxes in Chicago doubled in 8 years and are now 2.5% of assessed value!!!
Is there much crime in the South End? I grew up in southern MA and back then (25+ years ago) it wasn't considered a safe spot. I should also add my oldest son plays hockey so someone (probably me) will be shuttling him around to practice 3 days a week after school - I'm worried traffic in South End might be worse than Brookline / Cambridge and there might be fewer teams he could play for.
The taxes are actually lower in SE (at least they are for me); the city offers a bit of an owner-occupancy credit on property tax which helps, though less so the more your place is. I'm paying about $7,500/year in property tax per $1 million in value in the South End; when I looked at comps in Brookline that went up to around $9,000.
You'll also have the same problem in SE you will in Brookline -- inner Boston is just not a place with houses with big back yards. Even the $10-15 million brownstones aren't going to have a back yard big enough to play catch in, unless you count throwing to your kid in an alley. Attached garages are also a real rarity; the standard for the larger homes is 1-2 off-street spots; some will include deeded parking in a nearby shared garage.
"Why send kids to private school when you are in one among the best school districts in the nation?"
Nothing against MA schools but I'm coming from Chicago where CPS is all remote and private schools are in person. We also had a 2 week strike last year.
Things are no better here. If you want your kid to go in person more than 2 days a week, private school is your only option here.
I'm not sure how I'd rank them as far as reputation and desirability, but I certainly wouldn't put Newton above Belmont.
Are you saying that you would put Belmont above Newton? IMO, they're pretty even overall. However, I would say there are parts of Newton that people would consider more desirable than Belmont but Newton is a bigger place and has a little more variety to it. So, when you average everything out then they're pretty comparable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119
As for home appreciation, I'm betting against city neighborhoods, right? Rent decreases has given us a good indication, both in Chicago and in Boston, that demand is lower than it was YoY. Housing prices, which seem to be stagnant or on the decline in these Northern cities, will stay that way for the foreseeable future I would assume. Work from home doesn't bode well for the long term, either, as I think it's going to be as much the norm as it is the exception.
Folks will always want to be in a brown stone, or within walking distance to conveniences. But more and more, concessions will be made to get a larger house, large yard with the new WFH flexibility.
Values in the downtown area are definitely suffering right now. The only question in my mind is "how long will it take for them to turn around?" I was on a conference call the other day with the head of commercial RE for Wayfair and I was quite surprised by what he had to say. Obviously, they're a pretty big employer and they have no plans on relinquishing any downtown space and actually are planning to take advantage of the current situation by expanding their downtown footprint. They have no plans whatsoever to expand outside of the city for office space. Living downtown clearly has a some perks to it and if the jobs are still downtown then eventually that market will recover. I'm just wondering how permanent WFH will be. Undoubtedly, there will be a higher percentage of folks who WFH even when there is a vaccine or a cure. The only question in my mind is . . . will it be a significant percentage? In my mind, there's just a lot of questions about the downtown RE market right now and not a lot of answers.
Folks will always want to be in a brown stone, or within walking distance to conveniences. But more and more, concessions will be made to get a larger house, large yard with the new WFH flexibility.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mwj119
Inventory has remained super low in the Boston suburbs, while demand has only grown. Greater Boston is kind of anomaly post-recession.. Demand has been so high, and prices have seen record breaking increases. But now, and despite the exodus of folks in the city in recent months electing for the suburbs, prices and values are only incrementally moving north. At some point, there's only so many people who can pay $3-4-5-15M for a house, regardless of inventory constraints. It's really the middle class suburbs and the outer ring suburbs seem to have been the beneficiaries of this latest push.
All of that to say, I'd bet Belmont and Newton values hold stronger than Cambridge or Brookline, which will hold stronger than Boston itself. Ultimately, who knows.. Just a guess.
Not long after we went into lockdown in the Spring the RE market out here in the 'burbs turned into an absolute blood bath. People have been offering everything including their first born to get a house under contract. It was nuts before that with frequent multiple offers but now it's just insane.
At the $3M price point (depending on the town), it can be much more calm. There's a much smaller percentage of the population that can spend $3M on a house vs. $1.5M. All it takes though is 2 or 3 people to be interested in the same house though and things can get a little crazy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by yoss22
mwj119 - Thanks for your insight. We bought our house in Chicago at the bottom - 2012 - and will pretty much break even when we sell now. The doubling in taxes probably cost us $500k in value (if you treat the tax increase as an annuity) and the social unrest / crime is driving people to the Chicago burbs. Sounds like my SO might win the rent vs buy argument for the time being so we can see where things are once the dust settles.
I don't know anything about RE taxes in Chicago. However, here in MA we have proposition 2 1/2 which would make raising your RE taxes that much in such a short amount of time much more difficult. Here's some info for you:
I have a bunch of friends and a couple of RE agents I keep in touch with in the North Shore area Chicago 'burbs and it sounds like the state of IL is a bit of a mess. It sounds like the Chicago RE market was really stagnant up until COVID and then the 'burbs heated up but downtown is still slow. The Boston area RE market has been much healthier over the same period of time and overall did not suffer as much during the mortgage crisis of ~10 years ago.
Quote:
Originally Posted by id77
The taxes are actually lower in SE (at least they are for me); the city offers a bit of an owner-occupancy credit on property tax which helps, though less so the more your place is. I'm paying about $7,500/year in property tax per $1 million in value in the South End; when I looked at comps in Brookline that went up to around $9,000.
You'll also have the same problem in SE you will in Brookline -- inner Boston is just not a place with houses with big back yards. Even the $10-15 million brownstones aren't going to have a back yard big enough to play catch in, unless you count throwing to your kid in an alley. Attached garages are also a real rarity; the standard for the larger homes is 1-2 off-street spots; some will include deeded parking in a nearby shared garage.
These are great points. OP should know that some cities/towns offer a "residential exemption" which lowers your RE tax bill if the property is your primary residence. Boston and Brookline both offer one as mentioned.
Also, Boston and much of the inner ring was built long before there were cars or thoughts about "city planning" or "maintaining green space." So, the city can be pretty dense and much of the housing has limited parking and smaller yards even at the $3M price point. Housing tends to get more dense, the more conveniently located you are to public transportation.
In terms of public transportation, I agree with whoever said that living on the Green line of T would be the easiest commute into Copley in terms of public transportation. If you took the commuter rail from Belmont, you'd end up at North Station which means you'd either have to walk over to Copley (not pleasant on a winter day) or you'd have to switch to another train which would make the commute time less consistent.
For 3 mil, I do Brookline. Some beautiful mansions with good yards that are a block away from the Green Line T, all the food delivery options you could desire, etc.
Or anywhere in Cambridge and just drive to Copley, if you can afford a 3 mil house you can afford to park for $40 a day probably..
Are you saying that you would put Belmont above Newton? IMO, they're pretty even overall. However, I would say there are parts of Newton that people would consider more desirable than Belmont but Newton is a bigger place and has a little more variety to it. So, when you average everything out then they're pretty comparable.
No, though it did read that way. My statement was in response to OP, who is a client of someone who said their other clients live in Brookline, Cambridge, and Newton, but that Belmont never came up. Their interpretation, then, was that maybe Belmont was not quite as desirable.
I wouldn't say Belmont is "above" Newton, nor would I say Newton is above Belmont. Belmont is part of the $1M+ club, much like most of Newton's villages are.
I agree that Chestnut Hill is more desirable than any part of Belmont. But, the Belmont Hill residential area isn't too far behind. Both Belmont and Newton have areas that feel a bit more dense, with tri level homes and apartments. For Belmont, that's really south and southwest towards Watertown. In Newton, it's a bit more spread out and noticeable at scale.
Speaking of which, I haven't heard anything about the developments in Watertown. At one point, Arsenal Mall was the big ticket.. Whatever happened there?
To me, both Belmont and Newton have great location. In Newton, you have all of the conveniences on route 9, easy access to the western reaches of Boston and Brookline. In Belmont, you direct access to Cambridge, easy access to Somerville, and for both locations, there's always Moody St. in Waltham for some good eats if you want to stay away from the city.
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