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Old 02-25-2009, 05:38 PM
 
Location: NJ
386 posts, read 794,443 times
Reputation: 187

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I don't contest the veracity of your numbers but your chosen metric doesn't prove comparable properties have increased in value between the two time periods.

Why can't consumers have access to all the info in the MLS database? Why is there such poor transparency into the real estate market?

I hope part of the reform that comes from this collapse addresses these issues. I am amazed at how info is withheld, used, and distorted in this market.

My town shows a similar trend in median #'s but that is because only the high end stuff is changing hands...people are bailing out of their $1MM+ homes quicker than the sub $1MM market. And they are bailing out at significant decreases from 2006 peak #'s.
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Old 02-25-2009, 05:45 PM
 
1,552 posts, read 4,396,889 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wileynj View Post
Trulia? Zillow? They have been proven to be way off most of the time. If marc can post facts, I would take his word over both of those websites. He's in the business.
Well, home sales are public information. I think most of the comments about Zillow being "way off" are directed toward its "Zestimates" of home values, not its reporting of the facts of actual home sale prices. (There's no magic in those numbers, just a matter of pulling from the public records.)

The data that's publicly available conflicts with Marc's data. Marc pulled his data from a source we can't verify, and it sounds like he then did some calculations himself. Without infering any bad intention on Marc's part, I really don't see how, without any verifiable source, we can believe that median home sale prices in Basking Ridge increased in the period of August 2008 through February 2009.
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Old 02-25-2009, 06:16 PM
 
11,340 posts, read 9,890,445 times
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My data can be easily corroborated by any number of appraisers or agents on this board. Anyone care to run the numbers I described? It will take about 3 minutes and you can post back.

MLS data is up-to-the-minute. Far more timely than any source that is based on publicly recorded deeds.

-Marc
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Old 02-25-2009, 06:22 PM
 
Location: NJ
386 posts, read 794,443 times
Reputation: 187
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Paolella View Post

MLS data is up-to-the-minute. Far more timely than any source that is based on publicly recorded deeds.

-Marc
And why can't consumers have access to this updated/important information again?
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Old 02-25-2009, 06:24 PM
 
610 posts, read 944,405 times
Reputation: 371
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Paolella View Post
My data can be easily corroborated by any number of appraisers or agents on this board. Anyone care to run the numbers I described? It will take about 3 minutes and you can post back.

MLS data is up-to-the-minute. Far more timely than any source that is based on publicly recorded deeds.

-Marc
why don't you just post a screen shot?
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Old 02-25-2009, 07:15 PM
 
11,340 posts, read 9,890,445 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xmonger View Post
And why can't consumers have access to this updated/important information again?
Consumers are not allowed to join the MLS system at the present time. But they can get the information anytime by asking a member. And for free!

Actually, in most markets, whether it be stocks, bonds, real estate, auto sales, art, drugs, guns, health care, insurance etc., there is proprietary back end data that is only available to the dealer-members who pay a small fortune to accumulate it and disseminate it.

Real estate is not unique in this respect.

But everyone should remember, there is no inherent "right" to receive any particular kind of data. Many forms of data are a product of the expenditure of money and/or effort; they do not just drop out of the sky.

-Marc
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Old 02-25-2009, 07:16 PM
 
11,340 posts, read 9,890,445 times
Reputation: 14993
Quote:
Originally Posted by theoakman View Post
why don't you just post a screen shot?

OK, I will. Probably not until tomorrow though. Although the market is allegedly dead, I'm working on seven thousand different things right now.

-Marc
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Old 02-25-2009, 07:35 PM
 
786 posts, read 2,491,620 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lusitan View Post
Maybe you can provide some data for that assertion? I just checked Trulia and ran the charts, and got this:

"The median sales price for homes in Basking Ridge NJ for Nov 08 to Jan 09 was $488,750. This represents a decline of 24.2%, or $156,250, compared to the prior quarter and a decrease of 9.2% compared to the prior year."

I find it hard to believe that Basking Ridge could have a decline in the median sales price of almost 25% since November 2008, and yet have risen during the 6 month period between August 2008 and February 2008.

Basking Ridge average and median listing prices - Trulia.com

Zillow's shows similiar data:

Basking Ridge Home Values, House Prices, and Property Values - Zillow Local Info

Not saying your data is wrong, but where are you getting your facts from?

I hate it when people post conclusions without data, then get PWNED later when actual data shows the opposite.
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Old 02-25-2009, 09:06 PM
 
Location: NJ
386 posts, read 794,443 times
Reputation: 187
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Paolella View Post
Consumers are not allowed to join the MLS system at the present time. But they can get the information anytime by asking a member. And for free!

Actually, in most markets, whether it be stocks, bonds, real estate, auto sales, art, drugs, guns, health care, insurance etc., there is proprietary back end data that is only available to the dealer-members who pay a small fortune to accumulate it and disseminate it.

Real estate is not unique in this respect.

But everyone should remember, there is no inherent "right" to receive any particular kind of data. Many forms of data are a product of the expenditure of money and/or effort; they do not just drop out of the sky.

-Marc
Marc,

I appreciate that the info is available through a realtor. In fact I have requested and received a lot of info from my realtor. But how would you like to have to call someone everytime you needed information about what your 401k is doing and where your stocks last traded at?

The transparency in this business is about 100 years behind any other market so please don't compare this business to markets where the average internet user has 99% of the information available to professionals (and for the grand price of $0).

Moreover, another important distinction in your marketplace is the complete lack of regulation, self or otherwise. In financial services if you were to tell your client "buy now or be priced out forever" or "this stock never goes down" - you would be fined, lose your license, and be out of work permanently in the business. Lets see realtors lobby for the same standard.
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Old 02-25-2009, 10:29 PM
 
11,340 posts, read 9,890,445 times
Reputation: 14993
Quote:
Originally Posted by xmonger View Post
Marc,

I appreciate that the info is available through a realtor. In fact I have requested and received a lot of info from my realtor. But how would you like to have to call someone everytime you needed information about what your 401k is doing and where your stocks last traded at?

The transparency in this business is about 100 years behind any other market so please don't compare this business to markets where the average internet user has 99% of the information available to professionals (and for the grand price of $0).

Moreover, another important distinction in your marketplace is the complete lack of regulation, self or otherwise. In financial services if you were to tell your client "buy now or be priced out forever" or "this stock never goes down" - you would be fined, lose your license, and be out of work permanently in the business. Lets see realtors lobby for the same standard.
Could not agree more. The real estate industry has woefully insufficient ethical and competency standards. Anyone with a pulse can get a license to assist someone with the largest purchase of their life. It's ludicrous. There should be a college education requirement along with specialized training regimens that ultimately lead to the equivalent of the bar exam for lawyers or the CPA exam for accountants. We'll call it the CPR exam (Certified Public Realtor). The bar needs to be raised and raised high. It should be DAMNED HARD to get this license. As it is, any 2-bit hustler can join the club, and many in the profession are only 1-bit.

Meanwhile the market is deflating faster than an Open House Balloon at 4:01PM and when the highest ethical and professional standards are called for, we have what we have... which is almost nothing at all.

-Marc


PS Did you know that there is presently NO CONTINUING EDUCATION requirement for real estate agents in New Jersey? Unbelievably unbelievable...
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