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Dow went up by almost 700 points today... strange way for global economy to tank. As I already posted, about 100 years ago, there was a world war followed by a flu pandemic that killed at least 20 million people (but probably closer to 50 million, records were not kept very precisely). This was immediately followed by the economic bonanza of the 1920s. Everything points to the probability that we will see a replay of that (though hopefully with fewer deaths).
The economy and many other things will be very much changed, no doubt about it, but without tanking. Recession will probably linger for several months to a year about where it stands right now, but after that the global economy will get very healthy. Along with the rest of us who survive (and the great majority certainly will).
Yes. Whenever prices go down considerably, as soon as they hit a certain point buy orders come in and others start to buy to take advantage of these opportunities.
That does not mean investors think all is well with the economy. The US government is already preparing additional stimulus measures and European nations are doing their own economic interventions.
I think we’re not out of hot water until a vaccine is available to be broadly distributed. That would be sometime next year.
Maybe by the summer nations can start easing these restrictions they have on everyone.
The recovered economy will be different than the one destroyed by Coronavirus. Trump is already pushing more domestic manufacturing and Europe will do the same. Everything than can
Be digitized we’ll be digitized.
Tourism will be changed too. I truly believe Airbnb is dead as governments will likely say these amateurs rentals are not properly sanitized and not all them. At least hotels have professional cleaning staff. After having to deal with months of social distancing I don’t think nightclubs and trendy restaurants will do so well. I think regular neighborhood bars and restaurants will come back just fine.
Nah, that's not very socialist of them. More authoritarian than anything. They can get things done real quick, but that also means if the top starts bungling, they can bungle things hard and the mid and lower levels of government will sometimes end up being secretive and too afraid of getting the hammer coming down on them which is what this mess is.
Communism is fundamentally different from socialism, which is most of the time even a social market economy (the one in the EU, some countries in Asia, e.g. Korea, Japan, Singapore...). If your intention was to tag those countries as "bad" because they would have been socialist, it's not the right description.
China is closer to Cuba and to some extend, Russia. That's about it in term of equivalence in the world right now.
So far, historically, no crisis has prevented those market to go up again. And there has been some bad pandemics, wars, financial crisis... you're the one who presented the theory. Please support it with facts to explain why this time, it will be really different than everything we've been through.
Yes. Whenever prices go down considerably, as soon as they hit a certain point buy orders come in and others start to buy to take advantage of these opportunities.
That does not mean investors think all is well with the economy. The US government is already preparing additional stimulus measures and European nations are doing their own economic interventions.
I think we’re not out of hot water until a vaccine is available to be broadly distributed. That would be sometime next year.
Maybe by the summer nations can start easing these restrictions they have on everyone.
The recovered economy will be different than the one destroyed by Coronavirus. Trump is already pushing more domestic manufacturing and Europe will do the same. Everything than can
Be digitized we’ll be digitized.
Tourism will be changed too. I truly believe Airbnb is dead as governments will likely say these amateurs rentals are not properly sanitized and not all them. At least hotels have professional cleaning staff. After having to deal with months of social distancing I don’t think nightclubs and trendy restaurants will do so well. I think regular neighborhood bars and restaurants will come back just fine.
Airbnb hosts do and have to clean up the rooms after usage. Airbnb will be just fine. The demand will still easily be there.
NYC condo prices will drop like a rock, because they are death traps.
People aren't going to forget how De Balsio and Cuomo screwed them!
Anything is possible, are you referring to the end of the tax breaks that will ultimately results in very high operating models for those condos? Maybe. But I don't know about that. I do think that some people who couldn't afford to buy normally were too leveraged and may be forced to sell, but I think most of the people who bought those condos were probably able to afford them in whatever market conditions. Maybe I am plain wrong, and if I was, I am happy to benefit from the situation in the mid term!
And that's IF you believe the numbers coming out of China. That's part of the problem with communism or with any system where all means of official communication are controlled by the state and dissent is not tolerated. Its hard to know what information you can trust.
Yea, we’re in agreement on that, and my main point is that getting things under control more swiftly happened in democratic countries with a very vibrant free press.
In regards to China, I do know people living there who are definitely not pro-government and they've been out on the streets living pretty normally for a bit now. It would be insane to be doing that with an epidemic that has exponential growth to be allowing that, so at least some measure of control I believe in especially in the other provinces since the reaction once it became a nationally known issue was draconian and swift. What I don't believe in is the original body counts from Wuhan and Hubei no matter what part of the lower body count is intentional and what part of it is accidental, the numbers are probably low.
NYC condo prices will drop like a rock, because they are death traps.
People aren't going to forget how De Balsio and Cuomo screwed them!
You need to drop this. It’s annoying and dumb, and I’m someone who has repeatedly on this forum expressed a pretty pronounced antipathy to both of those people. A global pandemic can essentially only be fended off by a prepared and functional federal government response. A state by state, or city by city, monitoring and coordinating agency by themselves would be ridiculous. The US on a federal level needs to again create a coordinating federal agency that monitors and develops plans as a national response and coordinates other agencies and levels of government. This has been pretty apparent in how useful it is via the countries that had such—it was also the rationale for why we had created such an agency in the past. You just ranting the same things over and over again without any kind of real thought put into this is just noise.
You need to drop this. It’s annoying and dumb, and I’m someone who has repeatedly on this forum expressed a pretty pronounced antipathy to both of those people. A global pandemic can essentially only be fended off by a prepared and functional federal government response. A state by state, or city by city, monitoring and coordinating agency by themselves would be ridiculous. The US on a federal level needs to again create a coordinating federal agency that monitors and develops plans as a national response and coordinates other agencies and levels of government. This has been pretty apparent in how useful it is via the countries that had such—it was also the rationale for why we had created such an agency in the past. You just ranting the same things over and over again without any kind of real thought put into this is just noise.
That's exactly what is going on now, and that is exactly what FEMA is for. But the federal government cannot order the states to do things. Hell, even when President Trump floated the idea of a limited quarantine of NY, NJ, and CT (I'd imagine this would be a travel ban and not an actual in house quarantine, which the feds could not do), we saw Cuomo threaten legal action and condemn the plan.
So the federal government is coordinating resources (delivering ventilators--NYC just got a delivery of thousands of ventilators from the feds; building makeshift hospitals--Trump already used federal funds to build the thousands bed Javits Center hospital and has authorized the construction of 4 others in the outer borough; delivering millions of masks and gowns to hospitals; passing relief bills that gives many billions to hospitals among other things; delivering federal military support via USNS Mercy and USNS Comfort, and via support from Army medical and the Army Corp of Engineers; etc.
But given that the federal government cannot force states' hands, no, the federal government cannot fend off a pandemic. Not on its own. It needs the support and cooperation of the states.
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