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Old 11-13-2018, 05:23 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
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I'm supposed to drive up to Sterling around noon on Thursday. Now I'm hearing 5-8 inches of snow are expected Thursday morning, along with sleet. That's got to be a typo, right? I thought the snow was staying far west of there.
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Old 11-13-2018, 05:41 AM
 
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There are some weather predictors that thrive on sensationalism and it sounds like that was one of them. Both the Capital Weather Gang and weather.gov are predicting a bit of sleet mixed with rain Thursday morning, changing to all rain. If you go further west to the I-81 corridor they're calling for a little more snow but still not much. More sleet, though. It will be messier out there. But close in, at noon, it should be all rain.
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Old 11-13-2018, 06:26 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg VA
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Here's CWG's Thursday forecast:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...=.25ea291077c6

Thursday is soggy with a wintry mix in the morning shifting to rain by the afternoon in most areas (outlying north and west areas may see frozen precipitation last longer). Little accumulation is expected in the immediate metro, but temperatures might be cold enough in the far north and west suburbs for an icy coating or so (especially on cold and elevated surfaces like trees). Rain could be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening. Highs Thursday run into the upper 30s and 40s. Rain continues into Thursday night. Confidence: Medium-High on rain, but Low on mixed precipitation issues
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Old 11-13-2018, 06:37 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djplourd View Post
Here's CWG's Thursday forecast:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...=.25ea291077c6

Thursday is soggy with a wintry mix in the morning shifting to rain by the afternoon in most areas (outlying north and west areas may see frozen precipitation last longer). Little accumulation is expected in the immediate metro, but temperatures might be cold enough in the far north and west suburbs for an icy coating or so (especially on cold and elevated surfaces like trees). Rain could be heavy at times in the afternoon and evening. Highs Thursday run into the upper 30s and 40s. Rain continues into Thursday night. Confidence: Medium-High on rain, but Low on mixed precipitation issues

Thanks, and an extra thanks for posting a summary of what the link said, since I can't access that page without a subscription.
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Old 11-13-2018, 09:40 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
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Hmm... Jay's Wintry Mix now seems to think snow is a strong possibility Thursday, and that there might be closures. If there are closures, I don't need to come up, anyway. Any thoughts on what would be the earliest closures will be announced? If they can announce something before 5-6 pm on Wed that would be helpful.
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Old 11-13-2018, 09:55 AM
 
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There might be some precipitation, but the ground isn’t nearly cold enough for significant accumulation (or any really)
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:21 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Piney Creek View Post
Hmm... Jay's Wintry Mix now seems to think snow is a strong possibility Thursday, and that there might be closures. If there are closures, I don't need to come up, anyway. Any thoughts on what would be the earliest closures will be announced? If they can announce something before 5-6 pm on Wed that would be helpful.
They only announce the day before if they are 100% sure they are going to get significant precipitation.

Generally OPM will announce around 4AM the morning of.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg VA
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The timing of closures depends when the storm and any accumulation start moving in. It's doubtful that any closures will be announced early morning (around 4 AM). Wednesday's highs are forecast to be in the mid 40s, so it will take longer for any accumulation to become an issue. For what its worth, The National Weather Service is only calling for rain in my area (Lorton/Fort Belvoir), but a rain/sleet mix overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning as you move further north and west.
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Old 11-13-2018, 02:02 PM
 
Location: D.C.
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The local NBC weather guy has predicted double the snow averages for this winter for us.


This does not make me happy....
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Old 11-13-2018, 02:54 PM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
3,546 posts, read 3,115,713 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NC211 View Post
The local NBC weather guy has predicted double the snow averages for this winter for us.


This does not make me happy....

This seems so weird, because NOAA's prediction from a few weeks ago was for a relatively mild winter with a fair amount of rain but not that much snow.
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