1st time homebuyer - Not looking so good right now (San Francisco: 2015, home equity)

[ihatedcu]

Originally Posted by Joe Van Fossen

Yeah, unfortunately that's been the norm for quite a while now. Inventory is starting to tick up a bit now that we're getting deeper into spring, but the good homes go fast.

A well priced home goes pending in less than 2 weeks. Talk about a hot market!

House prices adjusted for inflation is back to normal. well, California normal.

[k374]

people may give rational explanations for all of this but these things are not rational, they are highly speculative based on some assumptions that homes will always be desirable. Sometimes desire does not equate to reality. If you look at what is happening in Canada you will see how bubbles make absolutely no sense at all. Even so the so called financial experts in Canada claim there is no bubble which is laughable. The median home price in Toronto is approaching $1 million!!! And Toronto is an absolute sh!thole of a city, my sis lives there and i've been there many times - absolutely dead depressing place. I would not buy a home there for $100,000 let alone a million. Yet Chinese buyers are lapping up properties there.

I believe most of the foreign money is coming in due to a) Money laundering activities b) Parking money because places like China are becoming highly unstable due to local bubbles c) Chinese investors - the chinese are horribly greedy and will invest in anything without any rationality, proof is their ghost cities - ordinary chinese have pooled money to invest in these ghost cities and this bubble is coming apart now

[nightlysparrow]

Originally Posted by k374

O.C. homes flying off the shelves; our market is the fifth-hottest in U.S. - The Orange County Register[/i]

8 out of the 10 hottest are in CA. No relief for homebuyers near any metro area in the state.

[ihatedcu]

Originally Posted by k374

people may give rational explanations for all of this but these things are not rational, they are highly speculative based on some assumptions that homes will always be desirable. Sometimes desire does not equate to reality. If you look at what is happening in Canada you will see how bubbles make absolutely no sense at all. Even so the so called financial experts in Canada claim there is no bubble which is laughable. The median home price in Toronto is approaching $1 million!!! And Toronto is an absolute sh!thole of a city, my sis lives there and i've been there many times - absolutely dead depressing place. I would not buy a home there for $100,000 let alone a million. Yet Chinese buyers are lapping up properties there.

I believe most of the foreign money is coming in due to a) Money laundering activities b) Parking money because places like China are becoming highly unstable due to local bubbles c) Chinese investors - the chinese are horribly greedy and will invest in anything without any rationality, proof is their ghost cities - ordinary chinese have pooled money to invest in these ghost cities and this bubble is coming apart now

Didn't Canada end their millionaire visa?

[harhar]

Unfortunately, (or fortunately) "creative" loans are making a comeback for those with good to great credit.

I also don't see a correction coming. However I think there might be a plateau effect that will happen once interest rates tick up.

My wife and I are hoping to start to look at homes at the end of next year. We'll have a healthy budget, but I'd still like the interest rates to be below 5%.

I think the main issues are still cash investors, people selling their first home and moving up, the lack of inventory because of the lack of equity in people's current houses, and the lack of first time home buyer incentives.

[ihatedcu]

For most people, prices have not reach the previous bubble. You'll see more inventory once prices reach 2006 level. Right now, prices are at or above 2004 level. No insane person will list below what they paid for unless there's circumstances that forces them to. If they keep a underwater house for this long, they'll wait for prices to catch up. Unless houses appreciate faster or we have a major financial crisis, inventory will remain low.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by motobecaneti

Can't you guys see it? The gov is "normalizing" the high prices of the last bubble to stop the foreclosures.

Maybe not.
Brace for a flood of foreclosures when boom-era HELOCs turn 10

[pacific2]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

Maybe not.
Brace for a flood of foreclosures when boom-era HELOCs turn 10

That article focuses on homes that have not seen an increase in value, and that's just not the case in Orange County:
Brace for a flood of foreclosures when boom-era HELOCs turn 10
Home values collapsed in late 2008 as the housing bust and Great Recession took hold, leaving lots of HELOC borrowers "underwater," owing more on their first and second mortgages than their properties are worth even today.
A RealtyTrac analysis of public property records across America found that at least 3.3 million homes still carry HELOCs from the 2005-08 era, with 1.8 million of these residences — or 56% of the total — considered "seriously underwater." Consumers who own those homes owe lenders at least 125% of a property's current market value.

There are few OC homes underwater:
Back above water: Homeowners without equity a rarity as house prices rebound - The Orange County Register
Orange County property owners who have no equity in their homes are a rarity these days – a far cry from the ugliness of the Great Recession just a few years ago.

Rebounding house values and the market-cleansing work of foreclosures and short sales pushed the share of Orange County mortgages that exceed the underlying property value down to 3.6 percent of homes in the fourth quarter, according to a new report from CoreLogic.

That’s quite a turnabout: It’s down from 20 percent three years earlier and is the third-best reading among the top 25 major metro markets in the nation.

[ihatedcu]

I like to thank the Chinese for the housing recovery here in socal. Please buy as much as you can, just like the Japanese did in the late 80s.

For anyone not familiar, there was a time when we all thought the Japanese would own America. Their stock market was going up up up and their housing prices were outrageous. They came to america to buy "cheap" real estate. I wonder what happen to all those Japanese investors.

[GO JACKETS]

Originally Posted by ihatedcu

I like to thank the Chinese for the housing recovery here in socal. Please buy as much as you can, just like the Japanese did in the late 80s.

For anyone not familiar, there was a time when we all thought the Japanese would own America. Their stock market was going up up up and their housing prices were outrageous. They came to america to buy "cheap" real estate. I wonder what happen to all those Japanese investors.

They'd be in good shape if they had held on to their real estate here. China is no Japan though. They have a hell of a lot more people, a much more open society, and a lot of natural resources. On top of that they have a huge military to protect their interests if they need. I don't think China will continue it's explosive growth forever but I also don't think they be mired in stagflation like Japan.