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i hate these threads with baited titles that gets one to think they mite of interest to someone like myself who flys my confederate flag proudly then they get railroaded into political discussions ..
I hate these threads with baited titles that gets one to think they might incite political discussion but then people get mad when da threads incite political discussion.
And my question still hasn't been answered after nearly two years: why are Pennsylvania voters more conservative than voters in other Northeastern states? Even New Hampshire, a decidedly non-urban state with a strong libertarian streak, has a much more socially liberal electorate than Pennsylvania. Obviously, the answer can't be that Pennsylvania is soooooo much more rural than New Hampshire.
I've already indicated that there are numerous factors, including religious adherence/identification, age, primary industries, etc. I think the single most primary factor that makes New England such an outlier compared to the rest of the US (even compared to NY and NJ, which also are slightly more conservative than New England), is the much higher percentage of non-adherents to a religion. It makes a massive difference in terms of social liberalism.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
We also know that the proportion of the rural vote is NOT why Pennsylvania leans far to the right of NYS since you can obliterate the NYC metro and other cities and still have a state that votes Democratic. This isn't so for PA if you remove Philly.
I don't actually agree with the assertion that, once you remove the large urban areas of Pennsylvania compared to NY, Pennsylvania is just dramatically more Republican. I think the difference was something like 10%, which is significant, but not earth-shattering, and certainly varies by election. Also,
1. There are still key demographic differences between rural NY versus rural PA, not the least of which is more ex-metro NYC'ers migrating to points upstate, which no doubt has shaped its political culture over time.
2. I think there are simply many more Republican-leaning moderates in Pennsylvania. I think I've made this argument to you before, and I don't think you ever responded to it, but the Northeast, as I'm sure you are aware, was once a stronghold for the Republican Party. While most of the rest of the Northeast made the transition to the Democratic Party, I think much of Pennsylvania remained fiercely loyal to this tradition, even as the national party today is VERY is out-of-line with what the party was like a few generations ago.
I've already indicated that there are numerous factors, including religious adherence/identification, age, primary industries, etc. I think the single most primary factor that makes New England such an outlier compared to the rest of the US (even compared to NY and NJ, which also are slightly more conservative than New England), is the much higher percentage of non-adherents to a religion. It makes a massive difference in terms of social liberalism.
That's also a cultural difference that's partly rooted in historical settlement differences.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
I don't actually agree with the assertion that, once you remove the large urban areas of Pennsylvania compared to NY, Pennsylvania is just dramatically more Republican. I think the difference was something like 10%, which is significant, but not earth-shattering, and certainly varies by election.
Pennsylvania would need to undergo a 11.6 percentage point swing to be what NYS is absent its largest cities. For comparison, Romney won West Virginia by a similar margin (61/39). Indiana without its urban areas would have gone 62.9% for Romney and 37.1% for Obama. New York State, on the other hand, looks more like Wisconsin without its big urban strongholds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
1. There are still key demographic differences between rural NY versus rural PA, not the least of which is more ex-metro NYC'ers migrating to points upstate, which no doubt has shaped its political culture over time.
That's one guess though Census figures show Upstate counties have been losing population. You will need to be able to show that ex-NYCers are replacing the loss of Upstaters to a sufficient extent to change the tilt the political scales in favor of Democrats.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
2. I think there are simply many more Republican-leaning moderates in Pennsylvania. I think I've made this argument to you before, and I don't think you ever responded to it
No, I responded to it. I then asked you how it could be the case that Pennsylvania could be more socially conservative than Virginia (in 2000, mind you...Virginia went solidly for Bush that year) if Southeastern Pennsylvania is relatively socially liberal. There are either some very conservative people located somewhere else in the state or social conservatives are spread out uniformly throughout Pennsylvania.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
While most of the rest of the Northeast made the transition to the Democratic Party, I think much of Pennsylvania remained fiercely loyal to this tradition, even as the national party today is VERY is out-of-line with what the party was like a few generations ago.
That still doesn't answer why Pennsylvania voters as a whole are more conservative than Virginia voters. Asking someone a question about gun control or civil rights gives you better insight into their ideological alignment than asking if they are a D or R.
Last edited by BajanYankee; 09-18-2015 at 03:23 PM..
While most of the rest of the Northeast made the transition to the Democratic Party, I think much of Pennsylvania remained fiercely loyal to this tradition, even as the national party today is VERY is out-of-line with what the party was like a few generations ago.
By the way, do you have a source to support this claim (as it applies to national, not state and local contests)? It's one thing to say "I think" and an entirely different thing to say "here is what research shows."
That's one guess though Census figures show Upstate counties have been losing population. You will need to be able to show that ex-NYCers are replacing the loss of Upstaters to a sufficient extent to change the tilt the political scales in favor of Democrats.
I'd actually argue that a two-fold phenomenon is going on in NY. Not only are ex-metro NYC'ers moving to upstate, but you have an exodus of former native Upstaters, who may be more likely to vote Republican.
I don't have granular enough census figures to support it exactly, but there is clearly a lot of churn going on in NY, as there are many reports that it has one of the highest net out-migration rates in the US.
That still doesn't answer why Pennsylvania voters as a whole are more conservative than Virginia voters. Asking someone a question about gun control or civil rights gives you better insight into their ideological alignment than asking if they are a D or R.
Again, Virginia is another state with TONS of churn. You well know that DC has being going gangbusters for several decades, which has resulted in a massive growth of suburban population in Northern Virginia (and elsewhere like the Hampton Roads area) with fairly highly-educated people (many of whom come from states like Pennsylvania). These are exactly the kinds of people who are going to be more socially liberal compared to long-time natives of Virginia.
Also, I think we should both concede that ONE study of exit poll results (which aren't even necessarily representative of the entire population), from the year 2000 (an eternity when it comes to changing social views), is extremely limited in its value for a multitude of reasons. This most recent Gallup poll measuring ideology is far more telling, in which Pennsylvanians identify as slightly more liberal/less conservative, than Virginians: Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana Most Conservative States
UPDATE: Here is some data to back up the theory that metro-NYC'ers are moving upstate. Here is an analysis of 2007-2011 ACS data:
"The most surprising finding is that the majority (65 percent) of net domestic migrants from the city who moved to outside the major metropolitan areas settled in the Northeast. Most of these 23,000 residents moved to smaller areas in Upstate New York and Pennsylvania. Virtually all of the other migrants not moving to major metropolitan areas moved to states in the South (41 percent). In contrast, there was a small amount of migration to New York from the West and Midwest totaling less than 2,000 (Figure 3)."
It's like people can't stand it when places have actual political diversity. Pennsylvania doesn't fit neatly into any little box, so simple-minded people throw it in the trash. Never mind that it really doesn't take much to be more conservative than New England, so let's not act like that's something shameful. By the way, here are some neat little maps I found that I think might be enlightening to anybody who's not willfully ignorant:
Anybody with a properly functioning brain can see the vast difference between rural Pennsylvania and the states that it's pejoratively compared to. Then there's this list:
White vote percentage for Barack Obama by county in Pennsylvania (2012)
81% - Philadelphia County
61% - Lackawanna County
53% - Erie County
50% - Montgomery County
49% - Allegheny County
49% - Delaware County
48% - Luzerne County
46% - Bucks County
46% - Lehigh County
46% - Monroe County
46% - Northampton County
45% - Centre County 44% - PENNSYLVANIA
43% - Carbon County
43% - Chester County
43% - Mercer County
42% - Berks County
41% - Beaver County
41% - Clinton County
41% - Fayette County
41% - Lawrence County
41% - Wyoming County
40% - Columbia County
40% - Elk County
39% - Dauphin County
39% - Schuylkill County
39% - Warren County
39% - Washington County
37% - Greene County
37% - Pike County
36% - Cambria County
36% - Crawford County
36% - Indiana County
36% - Montour County
36% - Northumberland County
36% - Susquehanna County
35% - Cumberland County
35% - Wayne County
34% - Bradford County
34% - Lancaster County
34% - Westmoreland County
33% - Venango County
32% - Cameron County
32% - Sullivan County
32% - York County
31% - Adams County
31% - Clearfield County
31% - McKean County
30% - Lebanon County
29% - Blair County
29% - Butler County
29% - Tioga County
29% - Union County
28% - Armstrong County
28% - Clarion County
28% - Snyder County
27% - Lycoming County
27% - Perry County
25% - Franklin County
25% - Huntingdon County
24% - Jefferson County
24% - Juniata County
24% - Potter County
24% - Somerset County
23% - Mifflin County
22% - Forest County
20% - Bedford County
18% - Fulton County
White vote percentage for Barack Obama by county in Alabama (2012)
36% - Greene County
28% - Colbert County
27% - Lauderdale County
26% - Franklin County
26% - Jackson County
25% - Jefferson County
25% - Lawrence County
25% - Russell County
24% - Sumter County
23% - Bullock County
23% - Perry County
22% - Lowndes County
22% - Macon County
21% - Lee County
21% - Madison County
20% - DeKalb County
20% - Montgomery County
19% - Etowah County
19% - Wilcox County
19% - Tuscaloosa County
18% - Calhoun County
18% - Cherokee County
18% - Limestone County
18% - Marshall County
18% - Mobile County
18% - Morgan County
18% - Walker County
17% - Chambers County
17% - Conecuh County 16% - ALABAMA
16% - Barbour County
16% - Dallas County
16% - Marion County
16% - Talladega County
14% - Clay County
16% - Coosa County
15% - Baldwin County
15% - Hale County
14% - Butler County
14% - Cullman County
14% - Lamar County
14% - Randolph County
13% - Escambia County
13% - Fayette County
13% - Shelby County
13% - Tallapoosa County
13% - Winston County
12% - Choctaw County
12% - Cleburne County
12% - Crenshaw County
12% - Dale County
12% - Marengo County
12% - Monroe County
12% - Pickens County
12% - Pike County
12% - Washington County
11% - Autauga County
11% - Bibb County
11% - Blount County
11% - Clarke County
11% - Covington County
10% - Chilton County
10% - Elmore County
10% - Geneva County
10% - Henry County
10% - St. Clair County
9% - Coffee County
9% - Houston County
The most conservative counties in Pennsylvania are on par with the most liberal counties in Alabama. In fact, the white vote percentage for Obama in Alabama overall is lower (16%) than it is in the lowest county in Pennsylvania (18%). Hell, let's merge and color-code the lists to make the contrast more obvious:
White vote percentage for Barack Obama by county in Pennsylvania and Alabama (2012)
81% - Philadelphia County
61% - Lackawanna County
53% - Erie County
50% - Montgomery County
49% - Allegheny County
49% - Delaware County
48% - Luzerne County
46% - Bucks County
46% - Lehigh County
46% - Monroe County
46% - Northampton County
45% - Centre County 44% - PENNSYLVANIA
43% - Carbon County
43% - Chester County
43% - Mercer County
42% - Berks County
41% - Beaver County
41% - Clinton County
41% - Fayette County
41% - Lawrence County
41% - Wyoming County
40% - Columbia County
40% - Elk County
39% - Dauphin County
39% - Schuylkill County
39% - Warren County
39% - Washington County
37% - Greene County
37% - Pike County
36% - Cambria County
36% - Crawford County
36% - Greene County
36% - Indiana County
36% - Montour County
36% - Northumberland County
36% - Susquehanna County
35% - Cumberland County
35% - Wayne County
34% - Bradford County
34% - Lancaster County
34% - Westmoreland County
33% - Venango County
32% - Cameron County
32% - Sullivan County
32% - York County
31% - Adams County
31% - Clearfield County
31% - McKean County
30% - Lebanon County
29% - Blair County
29% - Butler County
29% - Tioga County
29% - Union County
28% - Armstrong County
28% - Clarion County
28% - Colbert County
28% - Snyder County
27% - Lauderdale County
27% - Lycoming County
27% - Perry County
26% - Franklin County
26% - Jackson County
25% - Franklin County
25% - Huntingdon County
25% - Jefferson County
25% - Lawrence County
25% - Russell County
24% - Jefferson County
24% - Juniata County
24% - Potter County
24% - Somerset County
24% - Sumter County
23% - Bullock County
23% - Mifflin County
23% - Perry County
22% - Forest County
22% - Lowndes County
22% - Macon County
21% - Lee County
21% - Madison County
20% - Bedford County
20% - DeKalb County
20% - Montgomery County
19% - Etowah County
19% - Wilcox County
19% - Tuscaloosa County
18% - Calhoun County
18% - Cherokee County
18% - Fulton County
18% - Limestone County
18% - Marshall County
18% - Mobile County
18% - Morgan County
18% - Walker County
17% - Chambers County
17% - Conecuh County 16% - ALABAMA
16% - Barbour County
16% - Dallas County
16% - Marion County
16% - Talladega County
16% - Coosa County
15% - Baldwin County
15% - Hale County
14% - Butler County
14% - Clay County
14% - Cullman County
14% - Lamar County
14% - Randolph County
13% - Escambia County
13% - Fayette County
13% - Shelby County
13% - Tallapoosa County
13% - Winston County
12% - Choctaw County
12% - Cleburne County
12% - Crenshaw County
12% - Dale County
12% - Marengo County
12% - Monroe County
12% - Pickens County
12% - Pike County
12% - Washington County
11% - Autauga County
11% - Bibb County
11% - Blount County
11% - Clarke County
11% - Covington County
10% - Chilton County
10% - Elmore County
10% - Geneva County
10% - Henry County
10% - St. Clair County
9% - Coffee County
9% - Houston County
(NOTE: Counties in Pennsylvania are shaded in BLUE. Counties in Alabama are shaded in RED. Each state has 67 counties.)
Golly gee, look at how little overlap there is between the two! The blues remain near the top, and the reds remain near the bottom! It's as if Pennsylvania between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia really isn't like Alabama without the blacks after all! Such simple-minded people those who keep parroting James Carville are!
By the way, even though Pennsylvanians moved southwest along the Ohio River and down the Appalachian Mountains into the Mid-South, many Virginians and Carolinians moved west/northwest and did the same. The Pennsylvania influence diluted the Southern culture of the Mid-South; it didn't enhance it. Why do you think Kentucky ultimately sided with the Union during the Civil War? Why do you think Tennessee was the last state to join the Confederacy?
Last edited by toobusytoday; 09-19-2015 at 06:57 AM..
It's like people can't stand it when places have actual political diversity. Pennsylvania doesn't fit neatly into any little box, so simple-minded people throw it in the trash. Never mind that it really doesn't take much to be more conservative than New England, so let's not act like that's something shameful.
First of all, very well done! Thank you for taking the time to pull all of that together--very interesting and telling data indeed.
I'd also just like to quickly point out that Pennsylvania's, by far, most socially conservative and inflammatory state Senator--Daryl Metcalfe--is from Upstate New York. Pat Toomey, while he has toned down his old rhetoric, used to be considered more hard-right, but guess where he's from? Rhode Island! However, according to some folks, social conservatives are like a unicorn in the rest of the Northeast outside of Pennsylvania.
I guess some of us forget the oppressive history of the Puritans in New England, and the issues that cities like Boston had with busing and the fact that New Jersey is the hate group capital of the US, and that metro New York is the most racially and economically segregated metro in the county. Or that the Roman Catholic Church, which had and still has a massive influence across the Northeast is really noted for being hardliners against abortion and gay marriage. Or that the "liberal bastion" of Vermont has a higher gun ownership rate than Pennsylvania.
But no, those other places have always been SO much more progressive, enlightened, anti-gun and have never experienced any racism, homophobia or other such things that put Pennsylvania in the "dark ages."
I'd also just like to quickly point out that Pennsylvania's, by far, most socially conservative and inflammatory state Senator--Daryl Metcalfe--is from Upstate New York. Pat Toomey, while he has toned down his old rhetoric, used to be considered more hard-right, but guess where he's from? Rhode Island! However, according to some folks, social conservatives are like a unicorn in the rest of the Northeast outside of Pennsylvania.
Not to mention that "Write-In" got 46% of the vote against Daryl Metcalfe when he was up for reelection in his district last year. Winning an election by less than 10% is awfully close when you're running unopposed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duderino
I guess some of us forget the oppressive history of the Puritans in New England, and the issues that cities like Boston had with busing and the fact that New Jersey is the hate group capital of the US, and that metro New York is the most racially and economically segregated metro in the county. Or that the Roman Catholic Church, which had and still has a massive influence across the Northeast is really noted for being hardliners against abortion and gay marriage. Or that the "liberal bastion" of Vermont has a higher gun ownership rate than Pennsylvania.
But no, those other places have always been SO much more progressive, enlightened, anti-gun and have never experienced any racism, homophobia or other such things that put Pennsylvania in the "dark ages."
Every time Kenny Chesney has a summer concert tour, he always ends it with a two-show event in Foxboro, MA at the end of August. If there was no demand for his music in New England, he wouldn't even schedule one show there, let alone two.
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