Five worst places to retire........ (Phoenix, Scottsdale: sales, rent, vacation home)

[pgc323]

Magazine and website writers are under pressure to come up with articles that will draw reader's attention. What matters most is attention grabbing rather than substance. This article is an example. It won't effect my retirement plans for Arizona.

[Southern Phoenician]

I actually get upset that this city and state panders too much to retirees. We do everything we can to keep taxes low to pander to retirees even at the expense of education and some social programs. I would much rather raise property taxes and eliminate the state income tax like Texas. The state sacrafices much to pander to retirees than this article is a joke. I understand why we do it but it's an unfortunate reality here. Retirement is a big business in Arizona and keeps us afloat particularly now but it does come with its costs.

We just moved back from Austin last year after being there for 5 years. We were paying between $10-12k in property taxes (varied) and had a 1% deductible on homeowners insurance which was also $400 more/year. You get a lot of storms in TX. Our cost of living is significantly less living here for that reason. Schools are not all that great there... like here, it depends on the neighborhood. In one area we lived where we paid the highest property tax we chose to do private school because of the quality of education. Retirees don't have to worry about schools but you are still paying a LOT of money for them (most of the property tax goes to schools). Also, imagine being in an area that suddenly becomes popular with values rising significantly (think downtown Austin) and you have to move because you can no longer afford to pay property taxes despite not having a mortgage.

I would think AZ is good for retirees because most older people I know are so sensitive to the cold.

[TootsieWootsie]

My 1,500 sq. ft. house is 16 years old, in a 55+ community, clean and safe. Are you kidding Phoenix has a bad situation for retirees? I got my home for half what it cost 5 years ago.
So what if it takes another 20 years to go back to what it was 5 years ago?
For me--and I come from a family of very long living people--I plan to stay here anyway, so it it goes back to what it was 20 years ago I have made money. Maybe I can make that faster in the stock market and maybe not, but I know my house is not going to go down all that much if we have another dip.
The heat which helps arthritic geezers, the low tax base, the excellent medical care here...yeah, Phoenix is really one of the worst places to retire...not!
PLUS, it's a very easy place to meet others since everyone seems to not be a native here almost. Phoenix is great for retirees in my opinion.

[mjd2k]

Are snowbirds considered it the retiree group even if they aren't retired? I think its a great place to winter. Was at a function in the 55+place we bought into. People joked that they loved snowbirds. Pay the same amount as everyone else but only use the facilities a few months of the year.

[MotleyCrew]

I agree with Tootsie that AZ can be a great place to retire. We have been hunting all over the states for our last spot on the map and this is as good as we have come across. TX was too humid even in May and we listened to some good advice regarding the bias towards people other than native Texans, Florida, well suffice it to say I do not look good in pink spandex and I could not even tell you what kind of giant bug that was in the hotel room because we were too busy turning over the furniture trying to kill it.

[Captain Bill]

It was dramatically overbuilt during the real-estate boom, and the massive inventory glut that followed cut the bottom out of home values across the state.

That's right; and the drop in prices dramatically fell below where the values should be if a trend line is drawn for normal inflation from 2001.

About 40% of mortgages in Phoenix, the state's biggest city, are "underwater."

That's probably correct. However, not all of those will default. And not all of the homes that are 30 days behind in payment will default. Therefore, I don't see any value in that statement.

We know values fell far below where they should be, therefore, it's not surprising that many homes are "underwater".

Arizona State University real-estate professor Jay Butler told Fox Business he doesn't see the market turning around "for many years down the line." Even if you're not buying a retirement home, that's cause for pause.

That brings up some questions:

• What is Prof Butler's definition of "market turning around"?
• Is it when the "massive inventory glut" as the article describes, gets reduced to a 3 month supply as it is now?
• Or is it when prices get back to where they intersect a normal trend line since 2001?
• Or is it when prices get back to boom levels?
• Would Prof Butler be advising anyone who is interested in buying a retirement home buy when the prices are below normal?
• Or would he be advising they wait until they get back up to where they should be?
• And if they wait until prices get back to a normal trend line, or boom levels, what will the interest rates be at that time?

[Boompa]

Just a list of communities that bet everything on hordes of Baby Boomers coming to retire there before Wall Street cleaned them out. The worst part is that there are still developers waiting around for the first sign of recovery to shove more houses into a glutted market and politicians who insist that housing starts are a guage of the economy.

[Jkgourmet]

Although I don't agree with this writer and their evaluation methods, I do think there is some validity to looking at AZ with concern if one is considering retiring here. It goes beyond just the price of real estate.
It's the general fiscal and economic health of our state that leaves a lot to be desired, and a lot to be concerned about.

From the 2010 Pew Report:

In the report, Pew's researchers identified factors that have contributed significantly to California's difficulties, then determined the degree to which other states are experiencing the same challenges. These factors are: (1) loss of state revenues; (2) the relative size of budget gaps; (3) increasing joblessness; (4) high foreclosure rates; (5) legal obstacles to balanced budgets—specifically, a supermajority requirement for tax increases or budget bills and (6) poor money-management practices.

Those "other states": Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin join California as the 10 most troubled states, according to Pew’s analysis,*"Beyond California: States in Fiscal Peril".*

Full report here: http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/....aspx?id=56044

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Jkgourmet

Although I don't agree with this writer and their evaluation methods, I do think there is some validity to looking at AZ with concern if one is considering retiring here. It goes beyond just the price of real estate.
It's the general fiscal and economic health of our state that leaves a lot to be desired, and a lot to be concerned about...

I'm retired, although I still work in a different profession that I retired from, by choice rather than necessity, and I think it's a wonderful place to retire.

Nothing has happened here that would cause me to want to relocate to any other place in the country.

[TootsieWootsie]

I like the Pew reports myself, and the information presented I am sure is correct or darn close. However, having lived the last 7 out of 8 years in Illinois there seems to be much more positiveness here in Phoenix than in Illinois from the residents.
At least I am not having to see billboards here that say, "Save our Doctors" because Illinois has so many physicians leaving the State. Now THAT is scary!
Then you have the constant articles in the paper and on tv about various Illinois politicos that have stolen money, taken under-the-table payments, graft, corruption, etc. that you really don't hear much of in Arizona. This, too, leads the citizens down the old path of depression over their State.
No, I'll just ride out the recession here in the sun!