Phx metro 2014 housing predictions (Phoenix, Peoria: mortgages, homes, landscaping)

[JohnSoCal]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

Three just popped up in my community alone this week, and asking prices are still setting new sky highs, new listings going for $350 / sq ft! Can't believe my neighborhood was roughly $200 back in 2012! I'm loving the 75% profiteer attitudes around here now. By the end of the year I should be at $400, 100% profit!

Those are San Diego and Orange county prices.

[homebeyer2013]

400K gets you 30 miles from DC in the VA suburbs, about 1700 sf + basement. I looked at a 127 yo TH today on a 1300 sf lot in Georgetown; 1.995. Parking is available down the street for 250 per month.

[HX_Guy]

Listing went over 27,000 today, currently at 27,087.

[john3232]

What was it this time last year?

[HX_Guy]

Not sure but I remember a time in March/April/May last year when it was in the 17,XXX range.

[vince3vince]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

Listing went over 27,000 today, currently at 27,087.

Isn't that still low? I thought 35,000-40,000 was considered a healthy supply.

[HX_Guy]

Yeah, that's still on the low side I think. When the bubble burst, it was in the 60,000 range I believe and like you said, 35k-40k is considered normal I believe.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by autism360

You just revealed you have no understanding of how new home builders work, I have worked with new home builders in the past and currently am aware they are are only releasing a certain amount of lots each month to be sold. The answer to your question is no you cannot tell them you want 200 homes,they will not sell them to you for many reasons.
Go ahead call a new home builder and tell them you want to buy 200 homes and listen to them roll with laughter at you. Let me know which one you call and I will call them as well to verify your next post.

I said I could buy 200 homes under contract tomorrow. Where did I say I was going to ask one builder in one development to build them all? I recognize that a single company very well could not react in one neighborhood. It would be like me asking one bakery to make me 200 wedding cakes. They would say they could not do it. Based off of your logic, are you saying wedding cakes now are being controlled too to raise pricing? A single builder would not be geared up to react to building 200 homes in a single neighborhood. I could buy 5 homes from builder A, 10 homes from builder B etc. Therefore, I could buy 1000 homes Valley wide from numerous builders and developers. If I bought 10 homes from one builder, I would get a better price showing how illogical you are that they are attempting to control pricing. They simply don't have the control to do it. If I want to 20,000 homes now, I drain the supplies, labor, and land which will push the pricing up. At 200 homes or 1000, the builder could easily absorb that amount of homes. Building permits are down 35% from last year.

Builders like to assembly line build to be more efficient. They are not going to sell you a lot by itself 3 blocks away. That's less efficient. If your point is some builders with higher overhead won't build now because they refuse to break even or work hard and not make a small profit, we agree. Some will sit on their lots and wait until the market is willing to pay more. There is no conspiracy with the builders.

Currently building is profitable. They are hiring sales teams to sell. They are building models to sell. They are advertising to attract people to sell to. Builders want to sell as many homes as they can. They are not controlling the supply to manipulate the pricing.

Your logic is flawed.

[autism360]

Currently building is profitable. They are hiring sales teams to sell. They are building models to sell. They are advertising to attract people to sell to. Builders want to sell as many homes as they can. They are not controlling the supply to manipulate the pricing.

Then call up a builder and tell them you want to buy 5 or 10 homes and report back. You simply are out of your area of understanding homes are not like cars or wedding cakes.

[HX_Guy]

Related to the discussion, I can say that there definitely seems to be a building frenzy in the North Peoria area...houses are popping up everywhere, I assume the demand must be there?

Shea Homes in particular had some new homes about a year ago they built at Pinnacle Peak Rd and 91-ish Ave. They must have sold well because they did a 2nd version of the same homes south of Happy Valley Rd between 75th Ave and 83rd Ave. Then today, I notice a lot of desert being graded next to those homes and see a new sign for yet another Shea community. These are all $400k+ homes by the way.

Along Happy Valley Rd, there are two City of Peoria billboards for rezoning meeting coming up to rezone for more housing.

There are new Taylor Morrison homes going up on the NW corner of 75th Ave and Happy Valley ($280k+) and a brand new community, also Taylor Morrison, on the SE corner of 75th/HV that just got the model home opened and those start at $400k+.

In our Tierra del Rio community NW of Lake Pleasant Pwky and Happy Valley, they are getting a whole bunch of lots ready to build, doing the streets and such. They are already selling homes already and are doing price increases every month by around 1%-1.5% .

In addition, there are A LOT of those signs you see on the corners with "New Homes 2 Miles North" etc everywhere.