Phx metro 2014 housing predictions (Phoenix: 2015, condo, refinance)

[observer53]

Please don't steer this thread into discussions of other cities, or why someone would move here from a particular city.

Stay on topic. Thanks.

[PhoenixSomeday]

Originally Posted by observer53

or why someone would move here from a particular city.

Doesn't that affect the housing market though, and as a result, why it will change in the directions that it will, for 2014?

[john3232]

Originally Posted by PhoenixSomeday

Doesn't that affect the housing market though, and as a result, why it will change in the directions that it will, for 2014?

Good point. The population in Cal. might be on the rise but the middle class tax base is being squeezed out and looking at other areas of the country.

The Phx metro is a prime location.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by Angelfan760

The goal of moving to PHX from san Diego is a lower cost of living but know when nice homes in good school districts are pushing up towards the $400k mark.

you can get a nice home in a good area of PHX for well under $400k - thats over double the median home price in Phoenix.

anyone who tells you need to spend that much to get a "nice home with good schools" here is either an idiot or a snob - possibly both. You can certainly *choose* to spend as much as you want, but you cant compare apples and oranges. The median home value in San Diego is $400k (as of november) - compare that typical home to a $200k Phoenix home and you're at least in realistic territory. Wages here arent as high as some other cities, but they arent 50% lower as a rule, though I suppose there are people everywhere who are overpaid.. If you've got a sweet deal going, certainly milk it for all it's worth, no one would begrudge you that..

in any case, be sure to compare *all* the significant costs.. you'll pay less here for home insurance, car insurance & property taxes. you'll pay more here for air conditioning.. if you arent brainwashed into moving way out into the desert for "safe schools", you can probably live closer to your job - saving a pretty penny on gas & you wont need to buy new cars all the time like those who commute 80 miles a day do.. lots of variables in the equation..

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Phoenix Real Estate Market at a Glance & 2014 Forecast - January 2014 Report - Arizona Real Estate Notebook

John Wake did a nice job crunching the numbers on a PHX video ^^. He suspects that there will be an overall appreciation of a few percent. I hope his prediction comes true.

Now scroll down a little from the top of his page and check out each zip code. It allows you to hone into any zipcode and have an iterative cost per square foot over time. Better yet, you can de-select distressed properties by category and later add them back in. YOu can also hone into price ranges, etc.The data is being pulled off of the ARMLS system. Way cool!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

For those who have not checked out the ARMLS interactive data, give it a shot.

I have a definitive answer on Scottsdale's RE history. There has been a debate that we are at or close to bubble pricing specifically in Scottsdale. It's been argued that Scottsdale is no Goodyear, Gilbert, or Surprise and has rebounded more because there is no more land to develop and it is in another league all by itself. The numbers are in: we are not close to peak pricing even in Scottsdale and I am not surprised.

With the above link (and only clicking on Scottsdale), the "bottom" occurred around August of 2011 @ $155/Sq foot. "PEAK" happened in January 2007 @ $302. Today in Scottsdale, we are at $225 a square foot or a full $75 a square foot lower than the peak bubble time frame. I rest my case.

[tolovefromANFIELD]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

For those who have not checked out the ARMLS interactive data, give it a shot.

I have a definitive answer on Scottsdale's RE history. There has been a debate that we are at or close to bubble pricing specifically in Scottsdale. It's been argued that Scottsdale is no Goodyear, Gilbert, or Surprise and has rebounded more because there is no more land to develop and it is in another league all by itself. The numbers are in: we are not close to peak pricing even in Scottsdale and I am not surprised.

With the above link (and only clicking on Scottsdale), the "bottom" occurred around August of 2011 @ $155/Sq foot. "PEAK" happened in January 2007 @ $302. Today in Scottsdale, we are at $225 a square foot or a full $75 a square foot lower than the peak bubble time frame. I rest my case.

Dollar per square foot figure is a very poor indicator. It could very well be that homes being sold today have simply less features than those sold during the peak.

[SMG]

Why would the homes sold during the peak have more features than the homes sold now? Many of the homes sold during the peak are being sold now. The features on those properties from a few years ago are the same as the features beng sold now. Many things drive value, $/per sq. ft is one of the components used, given significant weight.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by tolovefromANFIELD

Dollar per square foot figure is a very poor indicator. It could very well be that homes being sold today have simply less features than those sold during the peak.

during the peak, you could get $300k+ for a chicken-coop behind a trailer park in Phoenix.
and have multiple offers.
the homes weren't "better" then..

[TiredOfyycCold]

Thanks for the link MN-Born-n-Raised... very interesting data and fun to play with too!