Phx metro 2014 housing predictions (Phoenix, Scottsdale: car insurance, school districts, per square foot)

[SMG]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

Think what you want, but you try to buy something, like I have, in Aviano, Desert Ridge fireside, norterra, Desert Peak- all 2004 and newer developments in North Phoenix within reasonable proximity to Scottsdale. All are at or within 15% of their peak value. Then try to get into scottsdale neighborhoods like Madrid, MMR, Windgate, Greyhawk, Ancala, Scottsdale Mtn. Summit. Same result. Sure, some homes aren't near their peak value in litchfield, buckeye, even the the magic zip code of phoenix 85254. But the newer desirable communities are pretty close.

Here is a few examples...

1. Aviano home, built for $617k in 2006, foreclosed for $471k, back on market for $600k. 3733 E Robin Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85050 | MLS# 5051735 | Redfin

2. Desert Peak house, built in 2007 for $565k on market for $679k. A different model had foreclosed in 2012 for $450k with a better backyard.
24228 N 24 Pl, Phoenix, AZ 85024 | MLS# 5051145 | Redfin

3. Norterra home build in 2005 for $375k, on market for $475k. 26710 N 24TH Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85085 | MLS# 4973546 | Redfin

Vince- Please bring some sold properties to bolster your argument. "On market" means very little, it is a list price. It could very well be overpriced inventory. The sold properties are what carries the weight, much more than a listing price. Why didn't your bring actual sales?

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

Think what you want, but you try to buy something, like I have, in Aviano, Desert Ridge fireside, norterra, Desert Peak- all 2004 and newer developments in North Phoenix within reasonable proximity to Scottsdale. All are at or within 15% of their peak value. Then try to get into scottsdale neighborhoods like Madrid, MMR, Windgate, Greyhawk, Ancala, Scottsdale Mtn. Summit. Same result. Sure, some homes aren't near their peak value in litchfield, buckeye, even the the magic zip code of phoenix 85254. But the newer desirable communities are pretty close.

Here is a few examples...

1. Aviano home, built for $617k in 2006, foreclosed for $471k, back on market for $600k. 3733 E Robin Ln, Phoenix, AZ 85050 | MLS# 5051735 | Redfin

2. Desert Peak house, built in 2007 for $565k on market for $679k. A different model had foreclosed in 2012 for $450k with a better backyard.
24228 N 24 Pl, Phoenix, AZ 85024 | MLS# 5051145 | Redfin

3. Norterra home build in 2005 for $375k, on market for $475k. 26710 N 24TH Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85085 | MLS# 4973546 | Redfin

And they all need some cosmetic updates. Some people make some really "interesting" choices.

[miran]

I don't think AZ is in bubble territory, far from it.
People that are listing their homes today are listing high thinking people are going to bite, that is why we are seeing many homes on the market longer and with decreases. I also think that with the USD increasing in value, there will be many foreign investors that will be taken out of the market and look somewhere else. The CDN $ has lost almost 20% vs. the USD in the last 3 three years and that will have a small impact.
Jobs will help stabilize the housing market, and from what I can see, many good paying jobs are moving to AZ, Apple, Intel, etc.
You want a BUBBLE? Look at the Canadian housing market, I purchased in 2005 for $236K and now it's assessed at over $500k. Yes I could sell today, but I need somewhere for my family to live.

[JohnSoCal]

Originally Posted by miran

I don't think AZ is in bubble territory, far from it.
People that are listing their homes today are listing high thinking people are going to bite, that is why we are seeing many homes on the market longer and with decreases. I also think that with the USD increasing in value, there will be many foreign investors that will be taken out of the market and look somewhere else. The CDN $ has lost almost 20% vs. the USD in the last 3 three years and that will have a small impact.
Jobs will help stabilize the housing market, and from what I can see, many good paying jobs are moving to AZ, Apple, Intel, etc.
You want a BUBBLE? Look at the Canadian housing market, I purchased in 2005 for $236K and now it's assessed at over $500k. Yes I could sell today, but I need somewhere for my family to live.

This is standard procedure when prices have increased rapidly. People put their homes on the market at ridiculously high prices and then have to reduce the price. That has been happening here for the past couple months. Prices rose very rapidly from January to September. That is when I started seeing people asking for prices much higher than the market. Since November those asking the high prices have either reduced their price or taken their homes off the market. The actual sold prices have not gone down, just the listing prices that were too high.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

Think what you want, but you try to buy something, like I have, in Aviano, Desert Ridge fireside, norterra, Desert Peak- all 2004 and newer developments in North Phoenix within reasonable proximity to Scottsdale. All are at or within 15% of their peak value. Then try to get into scottsdale neighborhoods like Madrid, MMR, Windgate, Greyhawk, Ancala, Scottsdale Mtn. Summit. Same result. Sure, some homes aren't near their peak value in litchfield, buckeye, even the the magic zip code of phoenix 85254. But the newer desirable communities are pretty close.

We have progress! Now you are admitting that prices are 15% from the bubble. With another push, the next step is for you to recognize they are more than double that from peak values. In our hood, we are still off a good 35% from peak.

Bring us the data. As in a graph, a table. Not 6 MLS listings. I showed you a link of THOUSANDS of homes.

Here is why you are not realizing what is actually happening:

Originally Posted by vince3vince

I'm no agent and you should take no advice from me, I'm just repeating the lines that listing agents( specifically, Realty Executives and other small no name brokerages) and opportunistic sellers have reiterated to me as an interested buyer.

It's easy to see why your numbers are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay off by reading this ^^!

[HX_Guy]

From today's Phoenix Business Journal...

Home building ends 2013 on sour note

Home builders did not get the year they hoped for in 2013.

That sharp increase in mort*gage interest rates beginning in May, followed by the government shutdown in October, knocked the wind out of the new home market’s momentum of 2012 and early 2013. That was the general consensus of a panel discussion at Belfiore Real Estate Consulting’s fifth annual AZDealmakers event last week in Phoenix.

As a result, new-home permit numbers continued tracking downward through the end of last year. The year-end total was fewer than 12,400 permits Valleywide — a significantly smaller number than the 17,000-plus experts forecast earlier that year, according to Belfiore’s 2014 Annual Housing Report.

Sales also were disappointing in 2013. Maricopa and Pinal counties posted 881 new-home sales in November — down 4 percent year over year and 9.7 percent month over month, according to Arizona State University.

New-home prices — which managed to surpass those of the prerecession days in 2013 — also suffered. In some areas, they declined by the end of the year, according to Belfiore’s report.

“We’re not going to be able to grow volume and price like we did in the last cycle ... it’s not a negative statement; that’s what created a bubble,” said panelist David Goldberg, an analyst with UBS Securities. “I think that’s one of the reasons we’re seeing mortgage rates rise. The (Federal Reserve is) worried about creating a bubble again ... if we go from 13,000 permits to 30,000, but you only get price increases equal to nominal wage inflation, (it) isn’t bad; it just means prices aren’t going up 12 percent a year.”

The panel — which also included John Graham of Sunbelt Holdings, David Garcia of Shea Homes and Nate Nathan of Nathan & Associates — concluded that the industry will be in a serious predicament if sales don’t pick up after the Super Bowl on Feb. 2.

Kristena Hansen covers residential and commercial real estate.

http://media.bizj.us/view/img/176854...esales*600.jpg

[JohnSoCal]

Originally Posted by vince3vince

It's BOOM time again. More good times ahead of us, as median new home sale price to median household incomes goes to new highs not seen even before the burst of the first bubble.

Breathing New Life Into the Second U.S. Housing Bubble - Political Calculations - Townhall Finance Conservative Columnists and Financial Commentary - Page full

Median household income has dropped almost 10% in the last 5 years.

[homebeyer2013]

If as many people buy on payment vs. price as I think do; there are going to be a lot of ripples through the market this year.
Wages will continue to haunt the market, as the investors go elsewhere. Seen many young couples even looking lately? 515 homes (non-ss) under 110K in the City of Augusta GA....golf anyone?

[cactusland]

I'm watching a bunch of properties in the lower and mid end of the market sit for a few months now and overpriced reo's just sitting there.
My guess is that most of the lower-end of the market are people who can't/won't get mortgages again, and these properties are slightly too high for investors which loaded themselves with cheap properties to flip or rent out. But again, I'm seeing some of these flipped properties just sit.

[Angelfan760]

Originally Posted by homebeyer2013

If as many people buy on payment vs. price as I think do; there are going to be a lot of ripples through the market this year.
Wages will continue to haunt the market, as the investors go elsewhere. Seen many young couples even looking lately? 515 homes (non-ss) under 110K in the City of Augusta GA....golf anyone?

As a mid-thirties young family I can say I have been watching the PHX market closely and that it is starting to lose a lot of appeal. This was our chosen location since in-laws are moving to Prescott. the jump in pricing has been absurd over the last two years. just as PHX was at the forefornt of the bubble in 2006 it is back in front again.

All Real estate aside the job market is not that strong there. There are positions but for the most part they a pretty low paying. The goal of moving to PHX from san Diego is a lower cost of living but know when nice homes in good school districts are pushing up towards the $400k mark. It hard for both me and my wife to leave 6 figure position for $50k. My wife's industry is healthcare and she has been interviewing and watching the positions posted and the same position in San Diego which is paying $80K here is paying $50k there.

Overall it all comes down to debt to income ratios and while prices are clearly not at peak levels they debt to income ratios are becoming less favorable in Phoenix.