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Old 06-18-2015, 12:55 PM
 
Location: My favorite state Arizona
266 posts, read 286,984 times
Reputation: 137

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Quote:
Originally Posted by kell490 View Post
I like the old method of figure out monsoon 3 days of over 55 degree dew points. We really are drying out now to say monsoon has started with the exception of the tropical storms that were pulled up here.
Me too. The average date for this event is July 7.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:56 PM
 
Location: My favorite state Arizona
266 posts, read 286,984 times
Reputation: 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wally Sconce View Post
Looks like the monsoon might arrive on the 28th.
Actually, it is expected to be delayed until mid-July.
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Old 06-18-2015, 12:58 PM
 
Location: My favorite state Arizona
266 posts, read 286,984 times
Reputation: 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG CATS View Post
It rained twice last week, and it was over 100 degrees IIRC. The rain is cool, though, so it feels good to stand out in it, which many people do, actually. It rains and youll see people emerging from their a/c to enjoy what tiny little rain we get.

We're forecasted to get a rainier than normal monsoon season, which spells more flooding, mosquitos, humidity, and bugs. Not looking forward to it. Its all the things I looked to escape in the Midwest come to life in the desert. Its a big downer. Last years rains were horrific, but were'nt really monsoons, but rather remnants of tropical storms/hurricanes. We've been hit with a few already this year in June, which is VERY rare.
Nailed it! Rain during June occurs once every 20 years or so on average.
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Old 06-18-2015, 01:21 PM
 
9,480 posts, read 12,311,465 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AZguy99 View Post
It doesn't REALLY start until July.

Yeah, it seems the 4th is the time it really happens. I wonder what the reasoning for the NWS to choose June 15th?
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Old 06-18-2015, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Tempe, AZ
1,484 posts, read 3,144,205 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ElleTea View Post
Yeah, it seems the 4th is the time it really happens. I wonder what the reasoning for the NWS to choose June 15th?
Awareness.
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Old 06-18-2015, 04:50 PM
 
Location: AriZona
5,229 posts, read 4,620,651 times
Reputation: 5509
I'm more comfortable hearing directly from the National Weather Service (NWS) -- also known as the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) -- than from any other source.

Other "weather services" seem to hype it up too much for my taste. Weather needs to be serious and not put on as entertainment or sensationalized in any way.
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Old 06-18-2015, 07:44 PM
 
Location: My favorite state Arizona
266 posts, read 286,984 times
Reputation: 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElleTea View Post
Yeah, it seems the 4th is the time it really happens. I wonder what the reasoning for the NWS to choose June 15th?
Actually the 5th. In the last several years it hasn't started earlier than the 5th. The air is still mainly dry on Independence Day, but a little more humid than late June, the hottest, least humid time of the year. Last year was an exception however. It started on the 3rd last year, the 11th the year before during July.
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Old 06-18-2015, 07:46 PM
 
Location: My favorite state Arizona
266 posts, read 286,984 times
Reputation: 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by ElleTea View Post
Yeah, it seems the 4th is the time it really happens. I wonder what the reasoning for the NWS to choose June 15th?
They don't know that June is rain-free 99% of the time, more than any other month. It should be July 1st because that is when the monsoon arrives over the Arizona border, on average.
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Old 06-18-2015, 07:47 PM
 
Location: My favorite state Arizona
266 posts, read 286,984 times
Reputation: 137
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bungle View Post
Awareness.
True, but any time before July 1 is still too early to worry about it, unless you're in the southeastern corner of the state.
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Old 06-18-2015, 08:35 PM
 
Location: St. Louis Park, MN
7,736 posts, read 6,483,779 times
Reputation: 10399
"A little warm" yea, I'll keep out of Arizona if the 100s and up is only "a little warm"! ^^

We haven't had an 100 degree yet. I'm actually excited to experience it for the first time, though I'm definitely more a cold weather person.
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