Housing Bubble? (Phoenix, Tucson, Scottsdale: extended stay, apartment, leases)

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64

Looks like a house where the original owners lived until they died. I’ve seen a lot of those in Tempe lately. Price is a little steep but it’s a good spot.

Not the original owners, but since 1988. Plenty of time to accumulate all sorts of crap apparently!

[jnojr]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

We have an ex CA highway patrol in our neighborhood. I suspect he was in his upper 50's. See https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamand.../#1ecb81d13945

I don't remember how much he said his pension was because it was a 2 year old conversation. But it was a high percentage of his working income. A great deal for him. Not so good for the tax payers.

He almost certainly got a 3%@50 retirement... eligible to retire at 50 with 3% of his salary for each year of service. Sometimes they average the last three years for that calculation. It's very common in CA state agencies to A) get a promotion with a big bump in pay near retirement; and B) become "disabled" so most of it isn't taxable. Lots of long-time CA state employees, especially "public safety" retire early, young, and well. As of three months ago, there were 62,000 CA retirees with six-figure pensions.

You can look up a lot of interesting stuff here, but I don't recommend it for CA taxpayers... the rise in your blood pressure won't be healthy for you.

[Ripper3785]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

You're either being facetious or are missing many of the pics. That's an older area for you though. Even some of the several million dollar+ homes in PV have power line views. They weren't burying them back in the 60s and 70s.

I know that it is just a function of the era it was built, but every 'view' pictured from the property includes utility lines. Some of us have never lived in an area like that. I'm impressed the market will bear that.

[goolsbyjazz]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

Some of those time capsules are really cool, but I think the location will eliminate it from garnering a much younger demographic's interest.

On another note, this is for sale : https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/46.../home/28203915

Ridiculous.

[Zathras]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

I’m really not even that surprised that a tear down is $650k there. The highly desirable parts of Phoenix have gotten very expensive.

must be that 'oversized' one-third of an acre estate it's situated on... /s

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Zathras

must be that 'oversized' one-third of an acre estate it's situated on... /s

I get the sarcasm but a third of an acre lot in the desirable parts of Phoenix is coveted and somewhat rare. It will be interesting to see what it sells for. I don’t think a developer will touch it for more than $400k or so, but we’ll see.

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

I get the sarcasm but a third of an acre lot in the desirable parts of Phoenix is coveted and somewhat rare. It will be interesting to see what it sells for. I don’t think a developer will touch it for more than $400k or so, but we’ll see.

Seems like things are slowing at the moment, but in the Spring that could change.



I mean it looks terrible and without knowing anything about it, it's hard to say what it is worth, but it could be a quick gut job on a house with good bones, or it could have a leaking pool (maybe why it's empty), foundation troubles, termites, etc. on top of the junk and dated fixtures.



1/3 acre near Arcadia on the canal but with the property line drawn so that you aren't completely on the canal and flood irrigation? Those are pretty valuable things IMO. The canal alone makes it a very walkable property to 40th/44th St. and Camelback w/o having to walk along the street.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

That house is worthless, perhaps even a liability. It's beyond strange that they posted all of those disgusting interior shots. It's the land that you're buying. A third of an acre in a one of the best locations (JUST outside of Arcadia proper) with Camelback views and they may actually have a case. Really, you have some of the best restaurants in the valley right there, great bike riding along the canal, shopping galore with easy access to Scottsdale and the Biltmore, well-off young families everywhere, you're getting the Arcadia lifestyle at what could be well under $1 million. There's value there for someone. Their marketing makes no sense though.

I'm not knocking the area/location. For me at least, I would never contemplate living in an neighborhood where my home kicks butt while the homes up and down the block look like a typical 1975 PHX area home. IMO, pretty much everything built in the 60's and 70's was sub par; low ceilings, choppy layouts, and bowling alley like footprints. So either I would have to swallow my pride with the look and feel of the neighborhood and blend in or punt. But to each their own.

[Movn-on]

Originally Posted by grmi66

This should be interesting to watch. I'm in the first wave of Gen Xers and we start turning 55 in 2-3 years. Purely anecdotal on my part, I've recently relocated to an area in Tucson located right next to a large retirement community and my subdivision is mostly retired folks. But the 55-60 year olds that I'm seeing moving into the area tend to be ex government employees with pensions and benefits from out of state. Just chatting up guys while waiting in line at the grocery store I've met a few retired law enforcement and fire fighters that are in their mid-50's and from California, New York and Illinois. My wife is a current federal employee and she has a couple of co-workers in other states that have been shopping in Arizona for their retirement home.

And this is precisely why we need to be very careful about the direction this state goes. IMHO, the main draw here for “wealthy” retirees is the low col. It’s in all our best interests to keep it that way. Sure, the weather is nice, the scenery is nice, but if we start taxing the rich (and everyone else) to pay for services, they will find ‘much’ greener pastures to retire in, and we will all be up a creek with our property values underwater.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

I'm not knocking the area/location. For me at least, I would never contemplate living in an neighborhood where my home kicks butt while the homes up and down the block look like a typical 1975 PHX area home. IMO, pretty much everything built in the 60's and 70's was sub par; low ceilings, choppy layouts, and bowling alley like footprints. So either I would have to swallow my pride with the look and feel of the neighborhood and blend in or punt. But to each their own.

Within the next several years, your kick ass home would likely fit right in. I don’t know that this particular one is worth saving, but the old ranches can certainly be made functional to today’s standards. My point is, the shortcomings from that era can be corrected and you then get the established, sought after, central neighborhood and a home that may work.

Here’s a cool (IMO) example of such: https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Phoenix/46.../home/28233080