Who really enjoys the heat in Phoenix? (Flagstaff, Prescott: to buy, campgrounds)

[waltcolorado]

It could be correct. Yet others are saying the increase is 1.5 degrees C

Last post reference were from your sources. I dont think any scientific paper is saying the Tonga volcano will do anything more than .035C increase in global temps over the next few years.

The mention of 1.5C is always because this was a target number set by the IPCC and the small change from the volcano could get us to this "milestone" earlier.

I cant find any reference that says the increase due to the volcano is 1.5C???

The Washington post article is also interesting. I looked for any mention of the Tonga volcano, there is none.

Maybe those "others" are referenced in one of the articles you posted earlier

https://www.space.com/did-tonga-unde...e-extreme-heat

Some commentators have speculated in recent weeks that the volcano is to blame for searing summer temperatures and are even using the volcano to cast doubt on the role humans are playing in climate change, as reported by The Hill.

The referenced hill article is here https://thehill.com/policy/energy-en...anic-eruption/

This article also says the heating from the Tonga volcano is only a small factor.

The last part of the article talks about who is modifying what the scientist are saying.

[TurcoLoco]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

The title: "Scientists are baffled why the oceans are warming so fast"

I am baffled too but I have ZERO knowledge on the topic but it truly baffles me those in the field are baffled too. I mean are they really that bad at their jobs or, quite possibly, there is something they are not aware of?

How could the oceans be warming up? Logically, wouldn't it be either from outside (surface or atmospheric source or inside (by a source under the surface or even the core itself)?

They need to identify the source so they can ascertain if it is man-caused (deliberate or otherwise) or by something else.

If we really do have aliens living among us, I won't be surprised if they started going back to their own planet during the hot summers!
Imagine having snowbird aliens, then there is something seriously wrong!

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by TurcoLoco

I am baffled too but I have ZERO knowledge on the topic but it truly baffles me those in the field are baffled too. I mean are they really that bad at their jobs or, quite possibly, there is something they are not aware of?

"Baffled" means that they are unsure because it is unprecedented. Their modeling isn't an exact science. Just look at their papers. There are a whole lot of variables that plug into their modeling. It is a FAR cry from an exact science. Which is what the naysayers hone in on.



As an example, they are plowing new fields: From: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2022GL099381 ".....In contrast, the H2O injection was unprecedented in both magnitude (far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year MLS record) and altitude (penetrating into the mesosphere). We estimate the mass of H2O injected into the stratosphere to be 146 ± 5 Tg, or ∼10% of the stratospheric burden. It may take several years for the H2O plume to dissipate. This eruption could impact climate not through surface cooling due to sulfate aerosols, but rather through surface warming due to the radiative forcing from the excess stratospheric H2O."

A couple of climatologists in Europe say the stratospheric burden isn't 10%, but closer to 20%. One guy said 30%. There are no models because there is no modern-day history of such an event. Here is what we do know, the surface temp JUMPED. And an event caused it. It's highly unlikely that kind of jump is man-made. What it does tell us is greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere factually matter a lot in our day-to-day lives. To me at least, it is a wake-up call. To others, it's nothing more than normal change. And anyone who differs is just a ' pinko liberal media scaremonger who are trying to gain traction for a one-world government by taking away your freedoms.' lol Head on over to the politics section of C-D if you think I am making that last sentence up. Not all, but too many people are in this camp.

[waltcolorado]

During La Nina years, the colder ocean picks up more energy from the atmosphere which is partially why La Nina years tend to be cooler. The ocean has been taking on extra energy over equilibriums for many years. As far as I can tell, no scientific paper is saying the little blip of energy due to the Tonga volcano can explain the warmer temps.

Add energy to a complex non linear system and it swings harder, faster and weirder.

I do like the thought that there are snowbird aliens!

Also looked at the last reference in this thread https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2022GL099381

Preliminary climate model simulations (see Supporting Information S1 for details) suggest an effective radiative forcing (e.g., Forster et al., 2001; Myhre et al., 2013; Smith et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2017) at the tropopause of +0.15 Wm−2 due to the stratospheric H2O enhancement (Figure S3b in Supporting Information S1).

Compare the 0.15 Wm-2 modeled forcing to what the radiative forcing is of the increased CO2. From this source https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uplo.../03/TAR-06.pdf

the radiative forcing due to the increases in the well-mixed
greenhouse gases from the pre-industrial (1750) to present time
(1998) is now estimated to be +2.43 Wm−2

Even back in 1998, the radiative forcing from greenhouse gasses is over 16 times higher than what the Tonga volcano caused. That ratio would be even higher now.

[Mike from back east]

We're hopelessly off topic, but as long posters can stay civil we'll keep going.

[mborner]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

We're hopelessly off topic, but as long posters can stay civil we'll keep going.

Agreed. For the life of me I can't figure out what global warming and volcano's and such have to do with who enjoys, or doesn't enjoy the heat in Phoenix.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by mborner

Agreed. For the life of me I can't figure out what global warming and volcano's and such have to do with who enjoys, or doesn't enjoy the heat in Phoenix.

Well, in the summer of 2020, PHX metro blew away all of the previous record temperatures. And in 2023, those records were shattered to a completely new level. "From June 30 to July 30, Phoenix was hit with 110+ degree heat every day for 31 days — shattering the record of 18 days set back in 1974. Daytime temperatures in July soared as high as 119 degrees." https://kjzz.org/content/1853724/her...0119%20degrees.

So the question that all of us were discussing had to do with why is that happening. Hence, the topic of global warming and the possible causes (volcanoes) were discussed. i.e. The thread was about: How a person can really enjoy PHX. With 31 record days of 110+ degree temps, are you???

[john3232]

Not sure if anyone can enjoy the 115 days but you learn to adjust. Now, if I could afford to live in nicer areas of N. Cal. I would. But since I can't.... I’m in the Phx metro. Maricopa has been the fastest growing county in the country for the past two years. Extreme summers or not I expect people will continue to move here.

Like a lot of locals here my wife and I take short trips to where it is cooler. Payson is just 90 minutes away but the weather much more mild. When my wife and I moved back to the States in 2019 we could have lived in SF, but we have no regrets about living in Az. We have a a pool which I use 4-5 times a week during peak summer heat. Having a pool is a big help.

[pathrunner]

I think it's an important - and interesting! - discussion. It surely does seem that these phenomena affect the climate (heat) in Phoenix.

[pathrunner]

Originally Posted by john3232

Not sure if anyone can enjoy the 115 days but you learn to adjust. Now, if I could afford to live in nicer areas of N. Cal. I would. But since I can't.... I’m in the Phx metro. Maricopa has been the fastest growing county in the country for the past two years. Extreme summers or not I expect people will continue to move here.

Like a lot of locals here my wife and I take short trips to where it is cooler. Payson is just 90 minutes away but the weather much more mild. When my wife and I moved back to the States in 2019 we could have lived in SF, but we have no regrets about living in Az. We have a a pool which I use 4-5 times a week during peak summer heat. Having a pool is a big help.

I have two different relatives in the Payson area, and this summer it was much hotter but generally speaking you're correct but it still gets up to 90 up there, which a lot of people don't like. Myself, I don't care. I like the heat.