Home values still going down? Why? (Phoenix, Maricopa: credit score, attorneys, house prices)

[asufan]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I bet you go out and buy a new house with a new, higher, mortgage in the next 5 years. Really, how many people around here have the same house and loan they had when they were young? 30 yo neighborhoods here are ghetto with but a few exceptional areas that first time buyers can't afford.

Nah, I have an 18 month old baby (plan to have another), and we are just beginning to grow into our 4,000+ square feet that is built with every upgrade the way we wanted. I am in a still growing area of Chandler (Near Santan freeway and Gilbert Road) that will continue to grow over the next 10 years, with more housing, commercial, and the airpark employment area so it will not look like a ghetto. The schools are great in the area, and we have family nearby, so we are here for the long haul. I am unique, though, I understand that.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by ArcticPhoenix

It will continue until people can afford a home! If people can't afford something, they don't buy it... well okay here in America we do because we have credit but that has stopped... so prices will continue to slide until they probably reach 1.5 - 3 times the average income...

If someone can't afford a home now, they will never be able to afford a home. Affordability has never been better and never will be again. BTW - median income earners don't buy the median home.. The distributions are different.

[Xica_da_Silva]

Heh...another Florida transplant here(in Phoenix since age 32), and born in Ft. Lauderdale. But I still have fond memories of Florida...my brother still lives there and is doing quite well...house value is hanging in there, well-paying job is secure. I don't see what Florida has become that is so tragic. True, it's always had a bit of a lure to ne'er do wells who thought moving to Florida would magically solve all personal problems. But I always loved the great joie-de-vivre of the island peoples(Cubans, Jamaicans, Haitians, etc.)...and the outgoing, spirited New Yorkers/Bostonians, etc. And thanks to the Canadians you've even got Haulover Beach(nudist). And a nice miniature Brazilian community in Pompano Beach...darn good food and music, those brazilians. It's all good. But that's just my pov.

As for taxes, that's just a personal nitpick of mine due to the fact that my house seems to have unusually high taxes for my area. Just a lower-case whine. I'm not an ideologue...I want the kiddies to have their books and asbestos-free classrooms. All that and more.

[ArcticPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

If someone can't afford a home now, they will never be able to afford a home. Affordability has never been better and never will be again. BTW - median income earners don't buy the median home.. The distributions are different.

Good points. However, my main idea here still stands... if people cannot afford something, they cannot buy it. If they cannot buy it, demand goes down. Price then goes down.

If someone can't afford a home now that doesn't mean they'll never afford a home.. they might be going through a rough financial period in their lives... they got foreclosed on because they bought more than they could afford, they owe student loans and they just lost their job. So right now they can't exactly buy a home... the most they can do is hope to God they don't move into a homeless shelter.

True, median income earners don't buy the median home. However, there is still something to be noted regarding the median pay versus home prices. Historically, the median home price has been somewhere around 1.5 to 3 times the average pay, if I recall correctly. I'll look around to see if I can find a source to that.

[Wyoming Darrell]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I hope they don't (repeal). Brewer surprised me with her insight. I might even vote for her if she keeps it up. We had better start paying attention to education, amenities, and infrastructure in Arizona or our homes are going to be worthless when all we have left here are retirees and tourists and the illegals who tend them. Can you say "Florida"?

I agree with your indication that education and infrastructure are going to be very important in any long term stabilization. What I don't understand is your statement about the homes being worthless because ".....all we have left here are retirees and tourists and the illegals who tend them".
That sounds like you are blaming those groups for any short-comings in those fields. Are you aware that all of the things you referred to are normally controlled by an elected board making a decision, or by the outcome of a public vote? You might also bear in mind that retirees and tourists vote in their home states, not in AZ, and anyone illegal cannot vote. I would say that not fully supporting education in the short term, is courting disaster in the long term, and if that is the status of education in AZ, a mistake has been made. That responsibility is the AZ voters, though, not any group of 'retirees, tourists, and illegals'.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by Wyoming Darrell

I agree with your indication that education and infrastructure are going to be very important in any long term stabilization. What I don't understand is your statement about the homes being worthless because ".....all we have left here are retirees and tourists and the illegals who tend them".
That sounds like you are blaming those groups for any short-comings in those fields. Are you aware that all of the things you referred to are normally controlled by an elected board making a decision, or by the outcome of a public vote? You might also bear in mind that retirees and tourists vote in their home states, not in AZ, and anyone illegal cannot vote. I would say that not fully supporting education in the short term, is courting disaster in the long term, and if that is the status of education in AZ, a mistake has been made. That responsibility is the AZ voters, though, not any group of 'retirees, tourists, and illegals'.

My response was to another poster who apparently felt $70 was too much to pay to keep our schools open. It is my position that if this state does nothing to attract young educated people, businesses, families, while concentrating on cutting taxes to appeal to retirees and taxophobes we will only be attractive to retirees and tourists. We have too long neglected schools from elementary to post grad, parks, art, public transport, and culture in the name of low taxes.

BTW, there are huge numbers of retirees who vote in AZ. You are speaking of tourists. It's debatable whether illegals vote here. And I love retirees. I am one myself - though I did work in and pay taxes to this state my entire adult life. Most others I know came from somewhere else, have no care or concern for the well-being of this state or the people who live here, oppose every effort to improve the quality of life for our citizens if it would cost a nickel more in taxes - all the while demanding more services and carping about how wonderful it was back in whatever frozen hole they crawled out of. But this was never about retirees.

[Wyoming Darrell]

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I agree with what I now understand to be your position.
Since there are more kids in either India or China meeting the US criteria for honor role, than there are kids in high school in the US, we have to educate our kids better than theirs are educated, in order to stay ahead or at least even whatever the standard of measure. It is much less expensive to educate than it is to ignore.

[Steerpike]

Originally Posted by Wyoming Darrell

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I agree with what I now understand to be your position.
Since there are more kids in either India or China meeting the US criteria for honor role, than there are kids in high school in the US, we have to educate our kids better than theirs are educated, in order to stay ahead or at least even whatever the standard of measure. It is much less expensive to educate than it is to ignore.

Hallelujah! Finally some folks willing to admit that taxes have a purpose in life!

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by Wyoming Darrell

Sorry for the misunderstanding. I agree with what I now understand to be your position.
Since there are more kids in either India or China meeting the US criteria for honor role, than there are kids in high school in the US, we have to educate our kids better than theirs are educated, in order to stay ahead or at least even whatever the standard of measure. It is much less expensive to educate than it is to ignore.

And yet somehow, those kids in China and India manage to be better educated than ours.....without shiny new laptops, small class sizes, huge school bureaucracies, teachers' unions, long summer breaks and countless billions of dollars like we're always told we need to be competitive. Money has never been the reason why our kids always rank low compared to other countries.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

And yet somehow, those kids in China and India manage to be better educated than ours.....without shiny new laptops, small class sizes, huge school bureaucracies, teachers' unions, long summer breaks and countless billions of dollars like we're always told we need to be competitive. Money has never been the reason why our kids always rank low compared to other countries.

Very true. The money should be spent on quality teacher to keep them motivated. Teachers should not have tenure and become untouchable. The most expensive district employees are usually overhead. In our district in MN that includes people like the "Director of Communication", staff Psychologists, Assistant Principles a.k.a. babysitters and there are 4 of them per high school in our Anoka-Hennepin district.

The price per pupal has gotten out of hand from all of the non-funded mandates like special ed programs. If a school district does their best to help out their community (think Autism for instance) people will move into that state and district clear across the country. If my child had a severe disorder, I would not expect the district to spend $60K a year with the goal of teaching him or her to brush their teeth and tie their shoe. That might sound harsh but it is true. It is cheaper for the district to spend that $60K than to try and fight a lawsuit.

In AZ, I'd assume non-funded mandates ==teaching illegals for free and all of the additional overhead because of the language complications. Some would view the current lack of money as a problem all of these non-funded mandates. If you give them more money and the system isn't broke, and the laws involving all of these mandates cannot change. Our politicians don't talk about these important details, they just talk about spending more on education.

MN students produce the highest ACT scores in the country Minnesota students rank highest among ACT takers | Minnesota Public Radio NewsQ . So we have a lot of people moving in for our schools. They are not coming for the brisk winters. Frankly it not about how much we spend (Minneapolis spends $3K more per student and they have some of the lowest ACT scores in the state). Low ranking and poor test scores correlate to poor parenting and low involvement.

So the reason why MN had the highest ACT scores in the nation is we probably have the most involved families (NOT the brightest minds). Involved families tend on spending more for education. Sorry divorced parents. The key word is "families". I voted yes to the last two referendums. So if someone points to our ACT scores and says we spend more $$, I'd say that money isn't the reason why we finished at the top.

Most parents and students just don't care about the priority of education. THAT is why we finish so poorly on average. So why have we done so well as a country when we are in the middle of the pact as a nation?? It's the top producers that have pulled the country along. It's also why there is such a disparity in income. Demotivate the performers (in the form of taxes) and see what that will get you in the long run.

I diverge...