307,484 (Pittsburgh: estimates, retirement, metro)

[steindle]

Originally Posted by pman

the one that bugs me is the one right across from the children's hospital. really?

I just walked past this building with my wife a few weeks ago and we were both talking about how bizarre it is that it's still abandoned. Is this a case of a clueless/MIA landlord, or what? It's a borderline criminal shame to see such a beautiful stone facade go vacant for... as long as I can remember. If I recall correctly, that place was abandoned when I was a kid, 20 years ago.

[LIRefugee]

Originally Posted by pman

and yet there's still room, there are indeed far emptier places in the city. I look forward to seeing the clemente museum surrounded by something other than blight. the strip, of course, is almost a blank slate. does anyone know the current population of the hill? driving down centre ave feels like you took a wrong turn and ended up in west virginia.
speaking of abandoned homes (there are many)..the one that bugs me is the one right across from the children's hospital. really? (the other one that bugged me is finally getting renovated, across from agh)

hipsters-I think the term has jumped the shark and lost its original meaning and definitely just means young people now.

Hazelwood and Larimer strike me as neighborhoods that have a LOT of open space available once other neighborhoods begin to fill up. Uptown also has a good amount of space left to fill in and is in a great location to boot. I don't think Pittsburgh will have a problem filling in the available holes for a while.

As to "hipster", I lump that term in with "Yinzer" (to some) or "hippie" as terms people use to denigrate people they either don't like or don't understand, or both, as is commonly the case. I don't think it has any meaning in and of itself (and I hope "Yinzer" eventually ceases to have its negative connocations and becomes as deroagatory as calling a New Englander a "Yankee").

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by SPSGuy

Does anybody have any idea about the history of the Census Bureau's accuracy on their estimates between the actual census counts that occur every 10 years?

I once read a study on this subject. The upshot is that they were, of course, subject to some error, and it was potentially cumulative (so the errors could be biggest right before the next census). Perhaps most interestingly, the errors were asymmetric, and they tended to undershoot in both directions: if the area in question was estimated to have gained, it was more likely to have gained even more, and if it was estimated to have lost, it was more likely to have lost even more. And those effects grew with magnitude: if it was estimated to have lost a little, it more likely only lost a little more, but if it was estimated to have lost a lot, it more likely lost a lot more.

All that said, it does appear this particular estimate wasn't based on the usual underlying data (housing unit counts), so probably isn't subject to that analysis.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by pman

and yet there's still room, there are indeed far emptier places in the city. I look forward to seeing the clemente museum surrounded by something other than blight.

That's lower Lawrenceville, not Central, which fell a lot further IIRC. for the most part, redevelopment in Lawrenceville is going to be about turning industrial plots near the river into residential however.

Originally Posted by steindle

I just walked past this building with my wife a few weeks ago and we were both talking about how bizarre it is that it's still abandoned. Is this a case of a clueless/MIA landlord, or what? It's a borderline criminal shame to see such a beautiful stone facade go vacant for... as long as I can remember. If I recall correctly, that place was abandoned when I was a kid, 20 years ago.

I recall one of our local real estate experts saying the dude is land-banking it. He asked for $275,000 before the Children's Hospital was announced. He's probably upped his asking price further. Basically an idiot, because whatever he eventually gets when it's flipped he'll have eaten so much in property taxes in the mean time.

[pman]

Originally Posted by LIRefugee

Hazelwood and Larimer strike me as neighborhoods that have a LOT of open space available once other neighborhoods begin to fill up. Uptown also has a good amount of space left to fill in and is in a great location to boot. I don't think Pittsburgh will have a problem filling in the available holes for a while.

As to "hipster", I lump that term in with "Yinzer" (to some) or "hippie" as terms people use to denigrate people they either don't like or don't understand, or both, as is commonly the case. I don't think it has any meaning in and of itself (and I hope "Yinzer" eventually ceases to have its negative connocations and becomes as deroagatory as calling a New Englander a "Yankee").

I think the article was just using it to mean young people. hipster can be a bad thing, imo, as all unthinking movement type things. in my experience, a lot of these people are the worst workers around. I wonder, though, how many people are really hipsters and not just young people. originally the negative connotation is that it was associated with trust fund kids in brooklyn that made a life of not working much but still had nice places.
you're right, hazelwood and larimer do have a lot of space. speaking of words, the word cad needs to come back.
found some hill data

Between 1950 and 1990, the Hill District lost approximately 71 % of its population.

http://www.ucsur.pitt.edu/files/nrep..._May291996.pdf
it's probably lost a good bit since then as well.

Originally Posted by steindle

I just walked past this building with my wife a few weeks ago and we were both talking about how bizarre it is that it's still abandoned. Is this a case of a clueless/MIA landlord, or what? It's a borderline criminal shame to see such a beautiful stone facade go vacant for... as long as I can remember. If I recall correctly, that place was abandoned when I was a kid, 20 years ago.

yeah, seems liek a stretch that they couldn't be making money renting it out

[ML North]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I recall one of our local real estate experts saying the dude is land-banking it. He asked for $275,000 before the Children's Hospital was announced. He's probably upped his asking price further. Basically an idiot, because whatever he eventually gets when it's flipped he'll have eaten so much in property taxes in the mean time.

That could be likely. I've actually wondered about that property for quite a while and tried to find a bunch of data on it. The current owner has owned it since 2002, and the conclusion that I reached was that he was speculating on steep appreciation in those couple blocks between Penn and Main. Here's some info on a bunch of his other properties:

4427 Milgate Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15224
County Assessment - Google Map
Purchase Price: $32k (2007)
2002 Assessment: $34k
2012 Assessment: $88k

5535 Kentucky Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15232
County Assessment - Google Map
Purchase Price: $12.5k (1997)
2002 Assessment: $137k
2012 Assessment: $351k

4402 Woolslayer Way, Pittsburgh, PA 15224
County Assessment - Google Map
Purchase Price: $25k (2004)
2002 Assessment: $30k
2012 Assessment: $64k

4404 Penn Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15224
County Assessment - Google Map
Purchase Price:$70k (2002)
2002 Assessment: $75k
2012 Assessment: $65k

4717 Maripoe Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15213
County Assessment - Google Map
Purchase Price:$53k (2003)
2002 Assessment: $62k
2012 Assessment: $127k

[eschaton]

As I've posted everywhere now, it seems the model being used is complete, total ****.

1. The 2011 household growth countywide is just based on 2010 growth.
2. They then split the household growth in equal proportions based upon the 2010 population of each municipality, and gave each place (even Braddock) its own positive share.
3. The only real part is the group quarters estimate, which made Pittsburgh seem to grow faster than the rest of the county, as college enrollment here (thus people in the dorms) continues to rise.

[pman]

so what places are coterminus? Philadelphia. NY is multiple counties. it appears to indicate that the Philadelphia numbers, then, are accurate (or as accurate as can be expected). the question, then, still is whether or not people are moving into the city of pittsburgh. thanks, that guy always has interesting posts.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by pman

so what places are coterminus? Philadelphia. NY is multiple counties. it appears to indicate that the Philadelphia numbers, then, are accurate (or as accurate as can be expected). the question, then, still is whether or not people are moving into the city of pittsburgh. thanks, that guy always has interesting posts.

Off the top of my head Baltimore, Denver, Washington DC, San Francisco, and Saint Louis are all also coterminous. Boston, Louisville, Jacksonville, Nashville, and Indianapolis are pretty close.

[speagles84]

Originally Posted by SPSGuy

I don't believe that 0.6% growth would be considered "rapidly growing". But for the rust belt, it may be.

For one year it is. Extrapolate it over 10 years, which would be huge for Pittsburgh.