Interesting Development: Number of People Quitting Jobs Now Higher Than Lay-offs

[momonkey]

Originally Posted by LordBalfor

Actually, the number of new folks hired went up by well over 700,000 last month (as I explained in the post below) but the vast bulk of those (670,000) were part of normal seasonal adjustment so they were factored out - as such numbers are ALWAYS factored out. This "raw" number compares VERY favorably with both last year's April's jobs numbers (no surprise there) - but surprisingly also with the numbers for April of 2008 - which showed negative job growth even WITHOUT the seasonal adjustment (to the tune of half a million or so). What this shows is that - even enemic as the "seasonally adjusted" non-census April 2010 job numbers are - they are much improved from both 2009 AND 2008 - and the "unseasonally (raw) adjusted" numbers are VASTLY improved from both 2009 AND 2008 - so I'd say the strategy being used is working pretty darned well.



I'm also of the opinion that the "weak" numbers from April are a bit of blip and that the May numbers will be MUCH better and much more in line with the steady improvement we've seen since late last year.



Ken

"All I asked for was a frickin rotating chair...whoa, hello...OK, sick as a dog now...going to vomit"

-Dr. Evil

[oz in SC]

From my link:

Included in Friday's report were the Labor Department's guesses as to how many new jobs were created by small, newly formed businesses that the government is unable to count. (Unable to count because they probably don't exist.)
These estimates were proven to be totally wrong last year, and the Labor Department was forced to reverse itself by removing 1.2 million jobs from its total in the annual benchmark revision this past February.
This guess has an official name: the Birth/Death model and you can search for it on the Bureau of Labor Statistics Web site. Since this 2009 guesstimate was abysmally wrong, you'd think Labor would tone down its optimism this year, right?
Wrong! The BLS thinks small businesses that it hopes -- but again can't confirm -- exist created 215,000 jobs this May, compared with 186,000 in the same month a year ago. I'll repeat, those 186,000 jobs did not exist last May. So why should the BLS be any more right with this year's guess of 215,000?

So the BLS was wrong by more than 1.2 million last year...but increased the number of these imaginary jobs created by imaginary businesses up to 215,000....

And also remember that somewhere between 100,000 and 150,000 jobs must be created every month to simply maintain the status quo.

For people to think that job creation is happening in any large numbers is simply strange..

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