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Well you need to let the "people" of the states vote for this one, NOT their legislators. This is a subject that is a very sensitive issue and it needs to be passed or rejected by the voting public. It remains to be seen whether Maine or Washington state pass the initiative.
Well you need to let the "people" of the states vote for this one, NOT their legislators. This is a subject that is a very sensitive issue and it needs to be passed or rejected by the voting public. It remains to be seen whether Maine or Washington state pass the initiative.
Right, right.
After all, it's not like we're a republic, or anything.
And it's not like this is some minor issue such as, you know, the use of military force or a declaration of war, which can only be executed by the President and/or Congress. No, unlike mere battle and war, this is, you know, very sensitive...
According to the United States Supreme Court docket, the high court will issue its decision on whether or not to grant cert in the Proposition 8 case (now officially titled Hollingsworth v. Perry) on August 31, 2012.
If cert is denied, the case is over. Same-sex marriage will be legal in California and the case will stand as binding precedent throughout the Ninth Circuit.
If cert is granted, the high court will hear the case late this year or early in 2013, with a decision presumably next spring or summer (the USSC makes it a point to issue all decisions in a session by July 4).
With a flurry of developments in marriage equality in the last several weeks, the picture of which states might be the next to allow same-sex marriage is coming somewhat into focus.
CALIFORNIA
Since Proposition 8 was struck down in August 2010, Perry v. Brown (previously Perry v. Schwarzenegger) has slowly worked its way on up through the courts. The Ninth Circuit finally ruled in February, upholding the District Court's decision as narrowly applied to Proposition 8, and not to same-sex marriage in general. At present, the proponents of Proposition 8 have petitioned the Ninth Circuit for an en banc review. The Ninth Circuit should rule by the first week of April on the petition; the consensus holds that it is unlikely to grant the request. After the presumed denial of the en banc review, Proposition 8 proponents will have a 90-day window to appeal their case to the United States Supreme Court. The high court would probably decide sometime in autumn whether or not to hear the case. The legal consensus seems to be that due to the narrow ruling of the Ninth Circuit, the Supreme Court is more likely that not to decline to even hear the case. The odds of the Supremes reversing the decision if they did review it seem even longer.
On the other hand, if the Ninth Circuit does agree to review the case en banc, the proponents of Proposition 8 probably face longer odds than they did when they played their losing hand in their appeal before the 3-judge panel. But such a review would likely delay the ultimate outcome of the case for approximately one year.
The likeliest scenario is that the proponents of Proposition 8 exhaust their appeals before the end of 2012, the stay of the judgment is lifted, and same-sex marriage is once again legal in California.
MAINE
QualityMaine and GLAD have succeeded in placing a voter initiative that would overturn 2009's Maine Question 1, which in turn overturned the same-sex marriage bill which had been approved by the Maine legislature and signed into law by Governor Baldacci earlier in that year. While that vote went 53%-47%, as a long-term trend support for same-sex marriage has been increasing by more than 1% annually. A complicating dynamic will be that 2009 was an off-year election, while this year is a Presidential election which will draw a larger electorate to the polls. Regardless of the results of the Presidential election nationwide, Maine is a blue state which will almost certainly vote for President Obama by a double-digit margin.
On the whole, this favors the passage of the amendment.
WASHINGTON
In February, the Washington legislature passed a bill allowing for same-sex marriage. The bill was subsequently signed into law by Governor Gregoire to go into effect June 7. However, opponents of the legislation have until June 6 to gather enough signatures (121,000) to put the law up for approval/disapproval on the November ballot. If this happens, implementation of the law will be stayed until the outcome of that election. Most observers consider it very likely that opponents will meet the low signature threshold requirement to put the issue to a popular vote.
Such a vote will probably be close. In 2009, Washington voters approved Referendum 71, the so-called "everything but marriage" bill, by a 53%-47% margin. On one hand, this bill goes farther, and the previous vote only passed with a 3% cushion. On the other hand, three years have passed and as previously noted, trend has long been gradually in the direction of increased support for same-sex marriage with each passing year. I expect the odds of this law being approved are greater than 50%, though not as likely as the chances of the referendum in Maine.
MARYLAND
Like Washington, the Maryland legislature passed a bill allowing for same-sex marriage this year which was then signed into law by Governor O'Malley. Interestingly, supporters of the bill included former Vice President Dick Cheney. The law is due to go into effect January 1, 2013. As in Washington, this bill faces the possibility of being put to a vote in a referendum in November. In Maryland, only 56,000 signatures are required to make this happen, so it seems almost a foregone conclusion that it will happen.
As with Washington, I would put the odds of this bill becoming law at more than 50%, albeit not much more.
NEW JERSEY
In February the New Jersey General Assembly and Senate passed a same-sex marriage bill which was then vetoed by Governor Christie. The bill passed the chambers with 42 and 24 votes, respectively, well short of the 54 and 27 votes, respectively, needed to override a gubernatorial veto. This would seem to make the odds of overriding the veto long indeed. However, it should be noted that the legislature has until January of 2014 to muster enough votes for the override, almost two years. And two years prior to this bill, a similar bill received only 14 votes in the state Senate; in a mere two years, 25% of the New Jersey Senate came around to supporting same-sex marriage. At present, smaller increases of support of 8% in the Senate and 15% in the Assembly would be required to override the veto. That said, the odds of accomplishing the override probably falls somewhat short of 50%.
Beyond New Jersey, the timeline and the specific states become increasingly speculative.
ILLINOIS
Civil Unions in Illinois went into effect in June 2011. It is worth noting that in several states civil unions laws have simply been a stepping-stone to full marriage equality laws. A group of Illinois legislators is currently coordinating with local LGBT organizations to plan a major campaign in 2013 to pass a marriage equality bill. It is expected that Governor Quinn would sign into law a same-sex marriage bill that reaches his desk.
RHODE ISLAND
As previously noted, the enactment of civil unions or the equivalent is often a precursor to the enactment of a same-sex marriage law. Rhode Island passed a civil unions law in 2011, and same-sex marriage polls 2-1 in favor there. It has widespread support in the General Assembly and Governor Lincoln Chaffee but has thus far been blocked from coming to a vote by President of the Senate Teresa Paiva-Weed.
DELAWARE, HAWAII
Delaware and Hawaii are another two states that have recently enacted civil unions laws, both on January 1, 2012. Polls from 2011 show plurality support for same-sex marriage in both states.
MINNESOTA
Though a same-sex marriage bill has no chance of passing the Minnesota Legislature anytime soon, there is a lawsuit at the district court level that could find its way to the Minnesota Supreme Court in the next couple of years. A referendum on amendment the state constitution could head off that possibility, but amendments are not easy to pass in Minnesota, requiring not just a plurality of voters but an absolutely majority of all voters casting ballots, including those that do not vote on the referendum itself.
How many states have voter passed same sex marriage now?
How many states have voter passed same sex marriage now?
The same number that have voter-passed interracial marriage. Your point?
Oh, wait... I see your point! You think the fact that mostly conservative states, mostly voting years ago (most of those referenda you mention were in 2008 and before), are excellent barometers of where the mostly non-conservative states listed above will vote in 2012 and beyond.
The majority of Americans support same-sex marriage, as revealed in yet another major poll, this one from the New York Times and CBS News. While the “majority” part is no longer surprising — the majority of polls over the past two to three years have consistently shown a majority or at least a plurality of Americans support same-sex marriage — what’s dramatic is the poll identified a five point increase in just a two-month period.
A word of caution here is that studies of past polls and ballot measures pertaining to same-sex marriage suggest that, on average, 7% of respondents to these polls are opponents of same-sex marriage who lack the courage to admit it to a pollsters, so they lie and claim to support same-sex marriage -- only to vote against it at the polls. So we must factor in their dishonesty when judging these polls.
That said, the poll's 10% margin exceeds the typical 7% of lying opponents, so that -- and all progress -- is good!
An interesting piece from the always-oustanding Lyle Denniston at SCOTUSblog.
Quote:
Editor’s note: During the Supreme Court’s summer recess, the blog is publishing a series of posts that explain, in non-legal terms, some of the most important cases that the Court will consider in the new Term that starts October 1. This is another in that series. It explains the cases raising constitutional issues about same-sex marriage. Beginning next Monday, the blog will be hosting a symposium on those issues.
“Marriage,” the Supreme Court once said, “is a coming together for better or for worse, hopefully enduring, and intimate to the degree of being sacred…. It is an association for as noble a purpose as any involved in our prior decisions.” It is small wonder, then, that countless numbers of devoted couples wish to enter that hallowed institution. Whether it is open to all, though, is as deeply controversial a question as any in American society. The Supreme Court is about to take on the constitutional implications of that question.
Ah, the clown who cannot comprehend that many of us support the civil rights of others.
I've been happily married since 1995, because my state (and all the rest) allows me to marry the sort of person to which I am naturally attracted -- someone of the opposite sex. But you assumed otherwise. And why? Because the idea of supporting an expansion of rights that won't benefit you in some way utterly baffles you. You are simply mystified that anyone would want to support the rights of others.
The irony of your narcissism manifesting itself as you cluelessly accuse someone who supports the rights of others as being self-centered is duly noted!
How can you change a constitutional ban in 10 years? As I said, not in your lifetime.
The "Love Is Not Enough Article" is a classic example of the slippery slope fallacy. "If we let the gays get married, what's next?" That is not a valid argument. It is designed to play upon people's fears and prejudices.
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