Quote:
Originally Posted by Spudee
In answer to the question posed above asking if the rate of firearm-related deaths has decreased since the Australian Government's gun by-back screen, the following information is contained in a paper prepared for the Royal Society of Medicine's by Simon Chapman in 2010:
"In the 13 years and eight months since the law reforms, there have been no mass shootings. While the rate of firearm homicide was reducing by an average of 3% per year prior to the law reforms, this increased to 7.5% per year after the introduction of the new laws, although this failed to reach statistical significance (P = 0.15) only because of the low power inherent in the small numbers involved Firearm-related suicides in men declined from 3.4 deaths per 100,000 person years in 1997 to 1.3 per 100,000 person years, representing a decline of 59.9%. The rate of all other suicides declined from 19.9 deaths per 100,000 person-years in 1997 to 15.0 per 100,000 person-years in 2005, representing a decline of 24.5%. The yearly change in firearm-related suicides in men was −8.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] −10.2% to −7.0%), and the yearly change in other suicides was −4.1% (95% CI −4.7% to −3.5%), less than half the rate of fall in firearm suicide."
So I guess the answer is yes, there has been a significant decline in firearm related deaths in Oz.
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You must have sucked as a police officer and investigator, because obviously you see only what you want to see, so I'd have to wonder how many innocent people you dicked over.
Your own report claims that it failed to reach a statistical significance, yet you claim exactly the opposite, and then you assert that 3% and 7.5% are significant, when it is not.
You'd sell your stocks because they declined in value 3%. Panic much?
Amused....
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
You're comparing apples and oranges! You can't compare the number of gun related deaths to the number of deaths and injuries caused by distracted drivers.
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Yes, I can compare them.
You fail to understand that firearms are constitutionally protected, while owning and operating motor vehicles
is not constitutionally protected.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
Assuming your numbers are correct your risk of being killed by a gun is 3 times greater than being killed by a distracted driver! (100,000 / 33,808 = 2.95)
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Yes, and a distracted driver is often distracted by a cell-phone, which is another device
that is not constitutionally protected.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
Why would it matter were the first shooting took place?
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Canada has 30 Million people, which is more comparable to your Swiss population of 7.9 Million, instead of the 312 Million people in America -- talk about comparing apples and oranges.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
Let's see how good your political science terminology is in German...
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I speak German. I read German. I don't write so well any more, but then I don't have much occasion to write German. I also speak, read and write Romanian, and speak Serbian and Slovak.
The German language is magnificent for its precision, and there's no distinction between an homogenous nation-State and a heterogeneous country?
You might want to look again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
22% of Switzerland's population are immigrants. 72.5% of the residents with Swiss citizenship are German-speaking (or to use American terminology: 72% are of German ethnicity), 21% are French and 4.3% are Italian. So Switzerland is very heterogenous. But we are a neutral country, we haven't been involved in any international military conflict since 1515 and we haven't had any internal military conflict since 1847 and our violent crime rates are very low (especially compared to yours). So obviously you can lead a very peaceful and non-violent life in a very heterogenous country!
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And your population is a mere 7.9 Million and geography plays a role. I dare say if the US was one giant mountain there wouldn't be much crime here either.
Your country isn't that heterogeneous either. You basically have Germans and French (Italians are like low-rent French wannabes). Culture is very important, as is the fact that there is no mobility in Switzerland.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
And btw Somalia is a very homogenous nation and still one of the most violent ones...
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What? There more than 1,000 ethnic groups in Somalia. Nothing homogeneous about Somalia.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
But we should compare the US to other developed western democracies like western Europe, Australia and Canada.
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But that's apples and oranges.
You compare two or more things that are similar. Similar to the US means country, heterogeneity, and size, geography, and population.
India and Russia are comparable to the US, but European nation-States and States are not.
You could possibly make an argument comparing European nation-States and States (along with Australia and New Zealand and Canada) to individual US States. Virginia has just over 8 Million people, and has comparable geography (even though it is a coastal State).
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
The whole anonymity thing....
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Is a matter of criminology, which is a subset of sociology and psychology.
My first undergraduate degree was in law enforcement, and I spent hours and hours in really fascinating sociology and psychology courses.
I had always thought it to be strange that the De Bartolo MAFIA family operated in Cleveland, Akron and Youngstown, but not in Columbus or Cincinnati, yet the Paninni Brothers were lieutenants in the De Bartolo family and ran operations in Newport, Kentucky, but not in neighboring Covington, Kentucky or across the river in neighboring Cincinnati (Ohio).
There were no crime families in Indianapolis, yet they operated out of Gary, Indiana, East Chicago, Indiana and Chicago, Illinois.
I found the answer after taking numerous sociology courses.
There is a reason why, and that reason is related to culture, ethnicity and geography, as well as population size.
And so is all crime and the tendency and probability of crime occurring.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
America is trapped in a vicious circle: Law abiding citizens need to be armed because the criminals are armed. And criminals need to be armed and violent because their victims are...
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That is patently false.
There are numerous cities and States in the US that attempted to ban firearm ownership out-right or severely restrict gun owner ship and the result was sky-rocketing crime, including violent crime involving fire-arms and the criminals did not stop shooting unarmed citizens.
As soon as Ohio enacted a concealed carry law, crime started dropping and continues to drop. Lather, Rinse, Repeat for any number of other cities and States that saw how stupid gun control is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatSwissGuy
If you lock the door to your room, call the police and have your (swiss army) assault rifle in your hand then the risk of being hurt or even killed by a burglar is near zero. Especially if the criminal in your house isn't violent and just as scared as you are. (As it is the case where I live).
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Yeah, well, if only all criminals in the United States had been born and raised in Switzerland....
....but that isn't the reality.
The US cannot stop illegal aliens from entering the US any more than it can stop drugs or pirated consumer goods from entering the US. The US cannot prevent weapons from being smuggled into the US either. The only thing gun control laws do is disarm citizens and make them victims of criminals.
Criminals, by definition, will always violate the law no matter what.
And the purpose of owning firearms in the US is to protect the people from the abuses of government, or the tyranny of the majority (as someone else put it). If the only weapon I can own is a .22 rim-shot Derringer, then I can't exactly defend or prevent abuses by government, right?
Anyway, just because 0.0325% of population dies because of idiots with weapons is not a reason for the other 99.9675% of the population to surrender their weapons.
http://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/health/...eathreport.pdf
As you can see there, only 65.2% of homicides involved a fire-arm in Wisconsin. The point is that people in America are violent, and there's a reason for that, and it has nothing to do with fire-arms.
It's easy to sit in your Ivory Tower Swiss Chalet and wax eloquently, but the reality in the US is quite different than the Swiss reality.
Criminalistically...
Mircea