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I don't live in Michigan but I do live in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is NOT a "toss up" state. We have become a solid Democratic state. This week's elections just underscore that point.
Pennsylvania went for the Democrat in the Presidential races the last six races.
Ohio is gone as is Iowa. Some polls suggest Iowa is in play but I doubt it. The last 4-6 years it’s been heavily trending red. In addition due to changes in demographics and population age Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are becoming more red
Wisconsin and Michigan Democratic governor candidates won in 2018.
Wisconsin and Michigan Democratic governor candidates won in 2018.
Wisconsin was by a nose, if that. Michigan isn’t going red anytime soon consistently but it’s headed that way. The thing to watch in Wisconsin is Evers has gotten on people’s bad side real fast. If he keeps up those shenanigans that State is at high risk of going to Trump again
Minnesota is definitely a long shot. I’m not sure though how much some of the stuff from Ilhan Omar could cause some Indys or centrist Dems to stay home or vote for Trump though. It’s part of the reason I expect Wisconsin and New Mexico to possibly be in play as well. The two recently elected governors there have gotten into trouble early with a bunch of the electorate and Evers barely won as it was
I don't think voters typically make their presidential election choices based on how they feel about their governors and congressmen. Kentucky's Matt Bevin (R) is just about the nation's least popular governor, but Trump will win the state in a landslide regardless. Wisconsin is certainly in play and should not be taken for granted by either side. New Mexico is not demographically favorable to Trump at all, and he'll need to be well ahead nationally to pick it up. As for Minnesota - Ilhan Omar's predecessor in Congress was Keith Ellison, who also had his share of controversy, and is now their state Attorney General.
1 there aren't a hell of a lot of "swing states." Giving that extra Nebraska vote to the GOP, all that remains are 10 states, totaling 116 electoral votes, that have offered their electoral votes to both parties since 2000.
2 the Republicans have to win the outsized majority of those "swing" electoral votes to win the presidency. If the Democrats can hold onto just 24 percent of the electoral votes "in play," they win the White House.
The same way they lost in 2016.
With Omar and AOC as the new face of the dem party, Trump will win by a much wider margin. Also, the dem candidates are actually weaker than Hillary, which is amazing in of itself.
1 there aren't a hell of a lot of "swing states." Giving that extra Nebraska vote to the GOP, all that remains are 10 states, totaling 116 electoral votes, that have offered their electoral votes to both parties since 2000.
2 the Republicans have to win the outsized majority of those "swing" electoral votes to win the presidency. If the Democrats can hold onto just 24 percent of the electoral votes "in play," they win the White House.
and of course what we read in the Wash Post is the final word, right?
Since this thread was started in 2015, lol I'll simply answer the OP's question by referring him or her to the 2016 election.
Yeesh.
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there aren't a hell of a lot of "swing states." Giving that extra Nebraska vote to the GOP, all that remains are 10 states, totaling 116 electoral votes, that have offered their electoral votes to both parties since 2000. 
